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El FMI prevé una década perdida para la economía española
Las nuevas previsiones apuntan a que España no recupere el PIB de 2008 hasta 2017
La mejora de Italia y Grecia será todavía más lenta
国際通貨基金(IMF)は、ヨーロッパ主要国のこれからの経済予測で、スペインの経済回復は、非常に遅いと推定
The IMF forecasts a lost decade for the Spanish economy
The new forecasts suggest that Spain's GDP recovers from 2008 to 2017
Improving Italy and Greece will be even slower
ALICIA GONZALEZ (SENT SPECIAL) Washington 19 APR 2012 - 21:02 CET
The new forecasts suggest that Spain's GDP recovers from 2008 to 2017
Improving Italy and Greece will be even slower
ALICIA GONZALEZ (SENT SPECIAL) Washington 19 APR 2012 - 21:02 CET
English translation from Spanish of this news article of this paper
Spain lags behind. While advanced countries have suffered more the Great Recession than the latter, most of them have recovered or will recover this year and economic activity they had before the outbreak of financial crisis. There is only a small group of lagging countries and Spain is among them. The new provisions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated this week suggest that Spain will not recover the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008, the last year with growth before the crisis, until 2017, six years later Germany or France.
So if one looks at GDP. In the case of employment is worse. "If the GDP recovered by 2018, that means they will not recover the two and a half million jobs lost by 2022 or 2023, in the best. So in terms of employment, fifteen years will be lost," says José Ramón Díez Guijarro, professor of economics at IE.
more informationSee the full DOWNLOADABLE gráifco the IMF forecast for all countries
In the case of Germany, the thud of GDP occurred in 2009, fell by 5.1%. Since then he has maintained sustained growth above 3%. Faced with this dynamic, Spain is a country in which the specter of double-dip recession has come to life. When the economy had begun a slow recovery, excessive debt, the credit crunch, the paralysis in the housing sector, the debt crisis and fiscal adjustment measures have caused a return to the red.
Spanish is the economic model of the boom which is now showing what their goal posts were made. "Ease of access to financing and the demand shock resulting from immigration triggered the real estate weight in GDP. That does not happen, with the consequent negative impact on growth potential," says the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which groups the world's leading private banks. That means that the potential is reduced from 3.3% -3.5% occurred between 1995 and 2007, just over 1.5% -2% in the near future, according to various experts. Among other things because there is still pending adjustment of housing prices and their impact on the accounts of banks, which will not provide credit. According to Deutsche Bank, house prices fell 30% in the U.S. in the first two years of the crisis before stabilizing. "In Spain, like a bubble, prices have shrunk only 15% in three years and have to drop more."
In the case of Germany, the thud of GDP occurred in 2009, fell by 5.1%. Since then he has maintained sustained growth above 3%
IMF staff estimate that in 2013 Spain will grow just 0.1%. But even from there Spain will have a vigorous recovery. The IMF forecasts point to a Spanish GDP growth of just above 1% in 2014 and always below 2% until 2017, last year to reaching your predictions. That's always the Spanish government does not comply with the plan of adjustment marked by Brussels because, as recalled by an expert on money, "the IMF report assumes that it will be the target of 3% in that time, since then the economy would shrink for several years. " So the lost decade can be, even the most benign scenario for the Spanish economy.
With all the caveats that deserve the estimates - "after two years, the forecasts are unreliable," admits an official of the organism, what seems clear is that the government of Mariano Rajoy will not be able to enjoy a minimally economy thriving in the whole legislature, where unemployment is always maintained above 20% and public debt will soar because of the difficulty of reducing the deficit by an ailing economy. According to the IMF, the economy will grow only 1% in the total four-year term of Rajoy.
The IMF report assumes that it will be the target of 3% in that time, since in that case the economy would shrink for several years "
IMF Specialist
Together with Spain, in the group of worst performers out of the crisis are rescued Slovenia and economies of Ireland and Portugal. The three also experiencing a lost decade in terms of economic growth. In Italy it is even worse. He tore the crisis before Spain and due to lower growth than even the Spanish for the coming years, will not recover the level of GDP in 2007 within the period covered by the provisions of the Fund. Italy and Portugal have the aggravation of being two of the countries least grew up in the decade before the crisis.
And behind them all is, of course, Greece. After five years of recession, even if they meet the very optimistic forecasts of the IMF for the period 2014-2017, will still be far below the level of activity in 2007. Outside Europe, only Japan shows a similar scenario.
The good news is that the adjustment starts giving positive signals timid. "Controlling inflation and falling unit labor costs is resulting in improved competitiveness and current account, reflecting the imbalances of a country, has gone from a deficit of 10% to just over 3% and continues to fall. are significant improvements, "says Díez Guijarro. But remember an investor, the shift to a new growth model is not easy. "It is a long and painful road ahead."
So if one looks at GDP. In the case of employment is worse. "If the GDP recovered by 2018, that means they will not recover the two and a half million jobs lost by 2022 or 2023, in the best. So in terms of employment, fifteen years will be lost," says José Ramón Díez Guijarro, professor of economics at IE.
more informationSee the full DOWNLOADABLE gráifco the IMF forecast for all countries
In the case of Germany, the thud of GDP occurred in 2009, fell by 5.1%. Since then he has maintained sustained growth above 3%. Faced with this dynamic, Spain is a country in which the specter of double-dip recession has come to life. When the economy had begun a slow recovery, excessive debt, the credit crunch, the paralysis in the housing sector, the debt crisis and fiscal adjustment measures have caused a return to the red.
Spanish is the economic model of the boom which is now showing what their goal posts were made. "Ease of access to financing and the demand shock resulting from immigration triggered the real estate weight in GDP. That does not happen, with the consequent negative impact on growth potential," says the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which groups the world's leading private banks. That means that the potential is reduced from 3.3% -3.5% occurred between 1995 and 2007, just over 1.5% -2% in the near future, according to various experts. Among other things because there is still pending adjustment of housing prices and their impact on the accounts of banks, which will not provide credit. According to Deutsche Bank, house prices fell 30% in the U.S. in the first two years of the crisis before stabilizing. "In Spain, like a bubble, prices have shrunk only 15% in three years and have to drop more."
In the case of Germany, the thud of GDP occurred in 2009, fell by 5.1%. Since then he has maintained sustained growth above 3%
IMF staff estimate that in 2013 Spain will grow just 0.1%. But even from there Spain will have a vigorous recovery. The IMF forecasts point to a Spanish GDP growth of just above 1% in 2014 and always below 2% until 2017, last year to reaching your predictions. That's always the Spanish government does not comply with the plan of adjustment marked by Brussels because, as recalled by an expert on money, "the IMF report assumes that it will be the target of 3% in that time, since then the economy would shrink for several years. " So the lost decade can be, even the most benign scenario for the Spanish economy.
With all the caveats that deserve the estimates - "after two years, the forecasts are unreliable," admits an official of the organism, what seems clear is that the government of Mariano Rajoy will not be able to enjoy a minimally economy thriving in the whole legislature, where unemployment is always maintained above 20% and public debt will soar because of the difficulty of reducing the deficit by an ailing economy. According to the IMF, the economy will grow only 1% in the total four-year term of Rajoy.
The IMF report assumes that it will be the target of 3% in that time, since in that case the economy would shrink for several years "
IMF Specialist
Together with Spain, in the group of worst performers out of the crisis are rescued Slovenia and economies of Ireland and Portugal. The three also experiencing a lost decade in terms of economic growth. In Italy it is even worse. He tore the crisis before Spain and due to lower growth than even the Spanish for the coming years, will not recover the level of GDP in 2007 within the period covered by the provisions of the Fund. Italy and Portugal have the aggravation of being two of the countries least grew up in the decade before the crisis.
And behind them all is, of course, Greece. After five years of recession, even if they meet the very optimistic forecasts of the IMF for the period 2014-2017, will still be far below the level of activity in 2007. Outside Europe, only Japan shows a similar scenario.
The good news is that the adjustment starts giving positive signals timid. "Controlling inflation and falling unit labor costs is resulting in improved competitiveness and current account, reflecting the imbalances of a country, has gone from a deficit of 10% to just over 3% and continues to fall. are significant improvements, "says Díez Guijarro. But remember an investor, the shift to a new growth model is not easy. "It is a long and painful road ahead."
国際通貨基金(IMF)は、ヨーロッパ主要国のこれからの経済予測で、スペインの経済回復は、非常に遅いと推定
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