http://elpais.com
スペインは、緊縮財政の実験場に、財政削減は、経済減少を引き起こし、(多分2012年08月には、スペインは借金で首が回らなくなり破産するだろう??)
España, cobaya de las medidas de ajuste
El FMI se fija en la economía española como laboratorio de la política de austeridad
“Somos la estrella invitada y eso no es bueno”, asegura un inversor afincado en EE UU
ALICIA GONZÁLEZ (ENVIADA ESPECIAL) Washington22 ABR 2012 - 00:01 CET
http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/04/21/actualidad/1335030594_073995.html
http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/04/21/actualidad/1335030594_073995.html
Spain, guinea pig of the adjustment measures
The IMF is set in the Spanish economy as a laboratory of the austerity policy
"We're the guest star and that's not good," says an investor who lives in the U.S.
ALICIA GONZALEZ (SENT SPECIAL) Washington 22 APR 2012 - 00:01 CET
In modern building where the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held their meetings in Washington Pennsylvania Avenue and Calle 19, a case has crept unexpectedly on the agenda of its spring meeting. In the last week, there was no conference, press conference or seminar circle that almost inevitably will not start with a question about Spain. Will the next country to seek a bailout?, Does the question is not whether it will happen, but when?, Can there be a partial intervention of the country?
The truth is that the Spanish situation has become a test of the consequences of the austerity and the rate at which adjustments should be applied. "The relevant question is not whether there should be fiscal consolidation or not. Should. The question is how fast ", defended the Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, at the launch of the World Economic Outlook.
Will the next country to seek a bailout?, Does the question is not whether it will happen, but when?, Can there be a partial intervention of the country?
The market has turned his gaze to the interaction between austerity and growth and discusses whether Europe succeeds with its bid the adjustments in the prescriptions applicable U.S. or those recommended by the IMF itself. "Without realizing it, Spain has become a test for the fundamental question facing Europe," said Phil Suttle, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, which groups the world's leading private banks and meets parallel to each meeting of the IMF.
A test that raises doubts about its end. "For weeks everyone asks me about Spain, want to know how serious the situation really is doing what the Government, whether there will be intervention. This pattern has remained in the assembly. Even members of governments outside Europe seeking answers, "says an investor based in the U.S.. "We're the guest star and that's not good."
The measures approved by the Government have failed to reduce the pressure on Spanish debt markets. Neither tax increases nor labor reform that sparked a general strike or the 27,000 million cut in the budget or the latest reductions in health and education benefits seem to calm the greed of investors. "The government has clearly failed communication," admitted an official at the IMF. But also something else. He said the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, a few weeks ago and he said the IMF in this assembly. "The Government has established a very strong plan and the key is implementation. For example, the financial sector needs to increase its capital levels and liquidity. There are good plans in place, but must be applied, "he noted the number two IMF's research department, Jörg Decressin.
The deviation of the deficit target for 2011 to 8.5% of GDP from 6% at baseline, had a strong impact abroad. Although Spain is accepted within some cleaning of drawers with each change of government, that is a dynamic one fails to understand outside, hence the eyes are placed on deficit control by the autonomous communities and greater transparency of their accounts. Avoid at all costs, analysts say, a repetition of what happened last year.
"While undoubtedly the most important thing is to describe a medium-term plan with realistic targets and concrete measures to reduce the pressure on short-term reforms. It's what made the United Kingdom and what it should do the Spanish Government. His last chance is the stability program, to be presented in the coming days, "said an expert from the financial sector. If that fails, the impact can be lethal.
This absence of concrete plans for 2013 explains that the IMF hardly augurs a decrease of three tenths in the government deficit in 2013 (from 6% to 5.7%). But neither agency experts took into account the impact of Budget 2012 on the deficit this year, which will force them to revise their estimates.
There is a sense in the financial community that the Spanish Government relaxes in implementing reforms without the pressure of the markets. "Without the liquidity auctions of the ECB in December and February, the Government could not afford to wait until March to submit their budgets," said an official of an investment fund. "Now the ECB is willing to suffer to Spain to implement the reforms."
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, keep meetings on Monday with investors in New York to sell the benefits of the Government's plans. But, in view of what has been the assembly, the message you receive seems clear: seeing is believing.
スペインは、緊縮財政の実験場に、財政削減は、経済減少を引き起こし、(多分2012年08月には、スペインは借金で首が回らなくなり破産するだろう??)
The IMF is set in the Spanish economy as a laboratory of the austerity policy
"We're the guest star and that's not good," says an investor who lives in the U.S.
ALICIA GONZALEZ (SENT SPECIAL) Washington 22 APR 2012 - 00:01 CET
In modern building where the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held their meetings in Washington Pennsylvania Avenue and Calle 19, a case has crept unexpectedly on the agenda of its spring meeting. In the last week, there was no conference, press conference or seminar circle that almost inevitably will not start with a question about Spain. Will the next country to seek a bailout?, Does the question is not whether it will happen, but when?, Can there be a partial intervention of the country?
The truth is that the Spanish situation has become a test of the consequences of the austerity and the rate at which adjustments should be applied. "The relevant question is not whether there should be fiscal consolidation or not. Should. The question is how fast ", defended the Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, at the launch of the World Economic Outlook.
Will the next country to seek a bailout?, Does the question is not whether it will happen, but when?, Can there be a partial intervention of the country?
The market has turned his gaze to the interaction between austerity and growth and discusses whether Europe succeeds with its bid the adjustments in the prescriptions applicable U.S. or those recommended by the IMF itself. "Without realizing it, Spain has become a test for the fundamental question facing Europe," said Phil Suttle, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, which groups the world's leading private banks and meets parallel to each meeting of the IMF.
A test that raises doubts about its end. "For weeks everyone asks me about Spain, want to know how serious the situation really is doing what the Government, whether there will be intervention. This pattern has remained in the assembly. Even members of governments outside Europe seeking answers, "says an investor based in the U.S.. "We're the guest star and that's not good."
The measures approved by the Government have failed to reduce the pressure on Spanish debt markets. Neither tax increases nor labor reform that sparked a general strike or the 27,000 million cut in the budget or the latest reductions in health and education benefits seem to calm the greed of investors. "The government has clearly failed communication," admitted an official at the IMF. But also something else. He said the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, a few weeks ago and he said the IMF in this assembly. "The Government has established a very strong plan and the key is implementation. For example, the financial sector needs to increase its capital levels and liquidity. There are good plans in place, but must be applied, "he noted the number two IMF's research department, Jörg Decressin.
The deviation of the deficit target for 2011 to 8.5% of GDP from 6% at baseline, had a strong impact abroad. Although Spain is accepted within some cleaning of drawers with each change of government, that is a dynamic one fails to understand outside, hence the eyes are placed on deficit control by the autonomous communities and greater transparency of their accounts. Avoid at all costs, analysts say, a repetition of what happened last year.
"While undoubtedly the most important thing is to describe a medium-term plan with realistic targets and concrete measures to reduce the pressure on short-term reforms. It's what made the United Kingdom and what it should do the Spanish Government. His last chance is the stability program, to be presented in the coming days, "said an expert from the financial sector. If that fails, the impact can be lethal.
This absence of concrete plans for 2013 explains that the IMF hardly augurs a decrease of three tenths in the government deficit in 2013 (from 6% to 5.7%). But neither agency experts took into account the impact of Budget 2012 on the deficit this year, which will force them to revise their estimates.
There is a sense in the financial community that the Spanish Government relaxes in implementing reforms without the pressure of the markets. "Without the liquidity auctions of the ECB in December and February, the Government could not afford to wait until March to submit their budgets," said an official of an investment fund. "Now the ECB is willing to suffer to Spain to implement the reforms."
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, keep meetings on Monday with investors in New York to sell the benefits of the Government's plans. But, in view of what has been the assembly, the message you receive seems clear: seeing is believing.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿