http://elpais.com
EDITORIAL
La solución Lagarde
La inyección directa de capital del Fondo de Rescate a los bancos acortaría la crisis financiera
EDITORIAL
The solution Lagarde
Direct injection of capital Rescue Fund to banks shorten the financial crisis
The Country 20 ABR 2012 - 00:07 CET
The solution Lagarde
Direct injection of capital Rescue Fund to banks shorten the financial crisis
The Country 20 ABR 2012 - 00:07 CET
Englsh translation fromSpanish of this newsarticle
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director International Monetary Fund (IMF), yesterday joined the ranks of those who argue that the restoration of bank balance sheets should be the priority of economic policies in Europe, in order to restore credit to finance recovery of the economy. At the same time, Lagarde defended yesterday the option of European Rescue Fund directly involved in the stabilization of bank balance sheets. Direct injection of money, cash or through recapitalization, would restore more quickly and efficiently confidence in the financial system and stem the endless crisis afflicting European banking.
The idea put forward yesterday by Lagarde is a recognition that indirect pathways orchestrated by the eurozone, both in terms of capital or liquidity, have had mediocre results. The difficulties can be explained clearly by going to the Spanish case. The Government has identified accelerating consolidation of banks and savings banks will require about 50,000 million, adjusted for accounting and financial crutches, eventually dropping to about 35,000 million. This new round of consolidation can be financed by charging the account at the Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD), but the fact that their availability is not enough to cover even 10% of the required amount. Could be rotated to creditors, but would have perverse effects on the credibility of the system. The public sector should not face such a cost, for obvious reasons and also because it would further increase their debt thereby causing injury to the external stability. The option to be the European Stability Mechanism which seems to clean bank balance sheets not only attractive, but the least expensive, with the added advantage of the credibility conferred by the involvement of a European institution.
Direct injection of capital could not be considered an intervention of a national system when applied to European institutions in need. It remains to discuss what are the tradeoffs required in exchange for the European operation, more urgent with each passing day if you will give European citizens a reasonable expectation of emerging from recession.
The IMF is following with attention the Spanish situation. Not surprisingly, their skepticism about compliance with the deficit target. The Fund estimates that the goal of stability (3% deficit to GDP) will be missed in Spain until 2018, predicts that substantial growth will not return until 2017 and is to suggest that this is a lost decade for Spanish society. Holds the right in the first two points, because it is unlikely that an economy to reduce its deficit to five points of GDP in a period of prolonged recession. Under the unemployment rate, especially the youth, the hypothesis of a lost decade, with a sharp drop in income and welfare losses, it becomes increasingly likely.
The idea put forward yesterday by Lagarde is a recognition that indirect pathways orchestrated by the eurozone, both in terms of capital or liquidity, have had mediocre results. The difficulties can be explained clearly by going to the Spanish case. The Government has identified accelerating consolidation of banks and savings banks will require about 50,000 million, adjusted for accounting and financial crutches, eventually dropping to about 35,000 million. This new round of consolidation can be financed by charging the account at the Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD), but the fact that their availability is not enough to cover even 10% of the required amount. Could be rotated to creditors, but would have perverse effects on the credibility of the system. The public sector should not face such a cost, for obvious reasons and also because it would further increase their debt thereby causing injury to the external stability. The option to be the European Stability Mechanism which seems to clean bank balance sheets not only attractive, but the least expensive, with the added advantage of the credibility conferred by the involvement of a European institution.
Direct injection of capital could not be considered an intervention of a national system when applied to European institutions in need. It remains to discuss what are the tradeoffs required in exchange for the European operation, more urgent with each passing day if you will give European citizens a reasonable expectation of emerging from recession.
The IMF is following with attention the Spanish situation. Not surprisingly, their skepticism about compliance with the deficit target. The Fund estimates that the goal of stability (3% deficit to GDP) will be missed in Spain until 2018, predicts that substantial growth will not return until 2017 and is to suggest that this is a lost decade for Spanish society. Holds the right in the first two points, because it is unlikely that an economy to reduce its deficit to five points of GDP in a period of prolonged recession. Under the unemployment rate, especially the youth, the hypothesis of a lost decade, with a sharp drop in income and welfare losses, it becomes increasingly likely.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿