El FMI deja a España fuera de la incipiente recuperación económica
El pronóstico del PIB español es el único que empeora entre los países avanzados
La economía española retrocederá un 1,8% este año, según la nueva previsión
El Fondo mejora el vaticinio para 2013, al anticipar un avance del 0,1%
ALICIA GONZÁLEZ / El País Washington17 ABR 2012 - 15:23 CET
国際通過基金は、スペインの2012年の経済成長率は、国内総生産のー1'8%、2013年の成長率は、0'1%と予測、イタリアは2012年は、ー1'9%、2013年は、ー0'3%
The IMF left Spain out of the nascent economic recovery
The forecast Spanish GDP is the only worsening between advanced countries
The Spanish economy recede by 1.8% this year, according to new forecast
The Fund improves the prediction for 2013, anticipating an increase of 0.1%
ALICIA GONZALEZ / The Washington Country 17 ABR 2012 - 15:23 CET
The forecast Spanish GDP is the only worsening between advanced countries
The Spanish economy recede by 1.8% this year, according to new forecast
The Fund improves the prediction for 2013, anticipating an increase of 0.1%
ALICIA GONZALEZ / The Washington Country 17 ABR 2012 - 15:23 CET
In the eyes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the outlook for the global economy is a little less black than three months ago, when he published a drastic downward revision of economic forecasts. The improvement, even "very fragile", with respect to the prediction of January, focuses on the advanced countries, the same as a drag on global growth since the financial collapse of 2008. The only exception, Spain.
In terms of growth, which in the case of other major European economies, United States (2.1%) and Japan (2%) is a better prognosis, a few tenths of GDP more in the forecast for 2012, Spanish economy is in a couple of tenths. The decline of Spanish GDP experts anticipate that the Fund, 1.8%, is already very similar to that forecast for Italy (-1.9%, while in January was -2.2%). Also, it is far worse than anticipated by the Government of Mariano Rajoy (-1.7%). Nevertheless, the agency sees "positive signs" of stabilization, although restricted to the area of competitiveness.
As for the tax reduction plan, the director of the IMF Research Department, Olivier Blanchard, said that is fine as it is and that care must be taken at European level with scissors. The "tax cuts alone will not solve the problems of competitiveness in the European periphery," he argued.
"We want to see greater fiscal consolidation is being done (in Spain) if activity were to slow, we would be reluctant to accept further consolidation because we think that, as far as possible, should come into play of automatic stabilizers "he said.
In any case, acknowledged that the pressure of markets and the limited room for maneuver Executive Mariano Rajoy "complicate" the analysis on how much and how. "In Spain, the deficit is very large, it is more of a marathon than a sprint. The Government has found the right balance between growth and support a process of fiscal consolidation," he noted, meanwhile, Jrg Decressin, deputy director of the IMF Research Department.
The contrast is increasing with Germany and France, away from the red (grow by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively). The improvement was also noted in the whole euro-area experts from the Fund reduced to 50% probability of recession, although here the outlook for 2012 remains negative (-0.3%).
With the slight improvement that the IMF says advanced countries, the outlook for global growth in 2012 would go to 3.5%, still below that achieved in 2011 (3.9%). The slowdown is emerging to move at a slower pace than last year (5.7% vs. 6.2%), but still contribute much more to global growth.
Spain itself benefits from this improved forecasts of the IMF estimates for 2013. The Fund was among the first to predict that the recession could stretch into next year. And now that prophecy cove private research services, believes the Spanish GDP dodge, for some, (an increase of 0.1% -0.3% compared to that predicted in January), the negative sign.
The Fund uses to update its estimates of unemployment, clearly outdated (had anchored the unemployment rate at 20%, far surpassed last year). Here his line with other forecasts are higher, but still among the most optimistic in these two years, the Spanish unemployment rate orbit, according to the Fund, about 24%.
In terms of growth, which in the case of other major European economies, United States (2.1%) and Japan (2%) is a better prognosis, a few tenths of GDP more in the forecast for 2012, Spanish economy is in a couple of tenths. The decline of Spanish GDP experts anticipate that the Fund, 1.8%, is already very similar to that forecast for Italy (-1.9%, while in January was -2.2%). Also, it is far worse than anticipated by the Government of Mariano Rajoy (-1.7%). Nevertheless, the agency sees "positive signs" of stabilization, although restricted to the area of competitiveness.
As for the tax reduction plan, the director of the IMF Research Department, Olivier Blanchard, said that is fine as it is and that care must be taken at European level with scissors. The "tax cuts alone will not solve the problems of competitiveness in the European periphery," he argued.
"We want to see greater fiscal consolidation is being done (in Spain) if activity were to slow, we would be reluctant to accept further consolidation because we think that, as far as possible, should come into play of automatic stabilizers "he said.
In any case, acknowledged that the pressure of markets and the limited room for maneuver Executive Mariano Rajoy "complicate" the analysis on how much and how. "In Spain, the deficit is very large, it is more of a marathon than a sprint. The Government has found the right balance between growth and support a process of fiscal consolidation," he noted, meanwhile, Jrg Decressin, deputy director of the IMF Research Department.
The contrast is increasing with Germany and France, away from the red (grow by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively). The improvement was also noted in the whole euro-area experts from the Fund reduced to 50% probability of recession, although here the outlook for 2012 remains negative (-0.3%).
With the slight improvement that the IMF says advanced countries, the outlook for global growth in 2012 would go to 3.5%, still below that achieved in 2011 (3.9%). The slowdown is emerging to move at a slower pace than last year (5.7% vs. 6.2%), but still contribute much more to global growth.
Spain itself benefits from this improved forecasts of the IMF estimates for 2013. The Fund was among the first to predict that the recession could stretch into next year. And now that prophecy cove private research services, believes the Spanish GDP dodge, for some, (an increase of 0.1% -0.3% compared to that predicted in January), the negative sign.
The Fund uses to update its estimates of unemployment, clearly outdated (had anchored the unemployment rate at 20%, far surpassed last year). Here his line with other forecasts are higher, but still among the most optimistic in these two years, the Spanish unemployment rate orbit, according to the Fund, about 24%.
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