Señor presidente, las cuentas no cuadran
Los Presupuestos infravaloran los gastos en partidas como las pensiones y el desempleo
Las previsiones de ingresos en cotizaciones e impuestos son demasiado optimistas
スペインのラジョイ大統領の国家予算の見積は、破綻ー歳出は失業者や年金生活者の増加により増大し、歳入は失業者の増加により、社会保険料や所得税や事業税は減少
Mr. President, the accounts do not add up
The Budget underestimate the costs items such as pensions and unemployment
The income forecast contributions and taxes are too optimistic
Manuel V. Gomez / Amanda Mars 15 ABR 2012 - 00:53 CET
The Budget underestimate the costs items such as pensions and unemployment
The income forecast contributions and taxes are too optimistic
Manuel V. Gomez / Amanda Mars 15 ABR 2012 - 00:53 CET
Spain has a well defined roadmap. That's the message that the Government has tried to send this week to the public in full escalation of harassment of the country in markets. The problem is the smudging that Mariano Rajoy has to be making progress. Because Madrid is committed to a complicated goal: reducing five-point deficit from 8.5% to 3 - in just two years, more than they are asked to rescue countries like Greece, Ireland or Portugal. And because this 2012, Rajoy has guaranteed that it will reduce the first three points (and placed the gap at 5.3%) without touching three items as the salary of civil servants, pensions and unemployment benefits (four out of $ 10 non-financial expenditure).
"It's very difficult for these budgets to reduce the deficit by 3.2 percentage points of GDP as it has undertaken in Brussels. In fact, the fall in non-financial expenditure only 1.1% lower compared to the budget execution in 2011, "says José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz Foundation for Applied Economic Studies (FEDEA)," To comply would have to do the further adjustment of our history and this can only be done by touching the large expenditure items such as salaries, wages, pensions and benefits, all totaling more than 22% of GDP. Another thing is that this is the best suited to Spain at this time of deep recession. "
Not comply with Brussels without touching the major items of public expenditure
Conde-Ruiz, FEDEA
The recession of the Conde-Ruiz speaking is a contraction of economic activity of 1.7% this year, according to government estimates, and would bring the number of unemployed to a figure close to six million. The market is creaking Spanish National Budget 2012. Many economists also: saying that devalue social spending and income are optimistic. Brussels keeps its final analysis for when you know what happens to communities, doubt about these accounts, leaving almost half of the adjustment in some regions than hands will have to rework their budgets.
"Deficit reduction has to be more gradual, because the austerity measure alone will not help to reduce it ... but I can say this because I'm not councilor, if even it were, should just meet," said Professor Antoni Castells, Minister of Economy of the recent tripartite government in Catalonia, adding: "This recession is forcing European political mistake this rate adjustment, but Spain can not speak out because the suspended student who has no credibility to call for review the examination, must the other, Spain must comply. "
And Spain is committed. "For the Spanish case, the various estimates available suggest that a 1% less than GDP causes a drop in revenues of close to 0.4% and a slight increase in spending. Between the fall of income and increased expenses, a decline in GDP of 1% leads to an increase in the deficit of around 0.5% of GDP, "says James Lake, professor of applied economics at the University of Vigo. According to these data, "the estimated revenue of the budget are optimistic" and "this is compounded by uncertainty about the effects of the tax amnesty: the available studies on previous amnesties in Spain invited to be very cautious about its effectiveness" .
Deficit reduction should be gradual, without further austerity does not help reduce
Antoni Castells
In this thesis aims Miguel Angel Garcia, director of the Economic Cabinet of CCOO: "Budgets are based on a very positive evolution in income. In direct and indirect taxes underestimated the impact of the recession. "
If the accounts do not add up throughout the year, we review the measures, and this, in the 2012 European means more cuts. Just a week after passing the Budget, the Government announced no concrete reforms and adjustments in health and education with an expected saving of 10,000 million this year. "But that is in the fiscal adjustment communities," says Lake.
For Juan José Rubio, professor of Public Finance and former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, "is an overstatement of income in all areas."
Then there are the standard deviations. From Duke University in the United States, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, warns that current expenditure on goods and services usually budgeted to decline. "In recent years they have spent from 25% to 30% more than budgeted each year," he says. Luis del Amo, manager of the Register of Economists and Tax Consultants (REAF) notes that income "are not resoundingly optimistic" but lacking specificity in some chapters, but stresses that are lower income without tax increases. For example, increased income tax revenue (3,303,000) is less than the estimated impact of rising, 4,100. The question is whether this decline of less than 1,000 million excluding the effect of the charge will be fulfilled in this context.
The Ministry of Finance estimate stands and sees the "prudent and reasonable." State revenues amounted to 119.223 million, 14.28% more, including 12,200 million the tax increase, plus noninterest income, which do not conform to economic developments. "Discounting this double effect, state revenues would fall on those of 2011, falling in line with the decline in economic activity expected -0.7% in nominal terms," emphasized in the Secretariat of State Budgets.
Investors, for now, have a romp on the Stock Exchange and the Spanish public debt. For example, one of the most common lamps on the market, Goldman Sachs predicted a day after the accounts were presented to the end deficit at 6.7%, 1.4 points above the committed. The largest investment bank in the world the first accounts of Rajoy in La Moncloa also did not add up.
Pensions, the Achilles heel
The Social Security numbers have raised suspicions since the government announced that in 2012 the public school would have as much income as an expense. In the minds of citizens is synonymous Social Security pension. But when it comes to national accounting becomes an umbrella under which to group the pension system, the Public Employment Service and the Wage Guarantee Fund. In 2011 the trio closed with a deficit of 0.09% minimum. The situation will worsen in 2012 and, instead, the government has maintained its forecast. "Impossible." It is the conclusion we have reached most of those consulted for this story. "Difficult," conclude the least.
Although there are those who point to Administrative Law nuance, you can always have a special credit of the Government to compensate the deviation party sources said between one and a half of GDP, from 10,000 to 5,000 million. But the red ink will not imply that pensions be paid leave. Social Security have savings with which to face the hard times: there are resources in the Treasury, is the Mutual Fund Prevention, about 6,000 million, according to the newspaper Abc forward are the resource that the Secretary of State Tomas Burgos, thinks the shortfall this year, and finally the more than 66,000 million from the Reserve Fund.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the year-end deficit will be 6.7%
The biggest question of Social Security accounts is in pensions. Of the more than 115,000 million will be used to pay pensions, the 101,953 calculated for the tax are proving insufficient. "It is undervalued," Miguel Angel Garcia value of CCOO. It is based on Social Security estimated that this item will go up by 2.9% more than budgeted last year and 2.3% of final expenditure. They forecast the variation could be around 4.5%, in line with the evolution of the first two months of the year, and thinking that inflation could be around 1.5% at the end of the year.
The numbers are closer union, but fall short, to an internal report prepared for the Social Security budget unborn Zapatero government puts it at about 4,400 million (104,861 in total) with inflation of 2 %. This is one of the more predictable items in budgets and also one of the most difficult to cut without cutting pensions. And that is something that Mariano Rajoy, the opposition attacked Zapatero for freezing very hard, can not be allowed without being a very great political erosion.
To find out how much to raise the pension expenditure from one year to another must be put into the calculator three variables: the update according to the evolution of prices, the increase in the average pension and the number of pensioners. Social Security has done a very low calculation predict an increase of 2.9%. Only the pension increase of 1% that the government declared in its first Council of Ministers has already been eaten by that percentage point. And if the end of the year prices rose by 1.9%, as predicted by most research services, the margin narrows in nine tenths. So just subtract one percentage point for the other two variables do not overwhelm the government forecast. Almost nothing if you consider only the increase of retirees in 2010 was 1.5% and in 2011, 1.4%.
Finance explained that this year hope the vegetative growth will slow to 1%, but the report in summer by the public school stood rising 1.6%. Treasury says nothing about the average pay increase that the document puts summer at 1.7% and not the possible deviation of the end of inflation.
There is more uncertainty. For example, there is to know what impact on the low and intended to pay (5,799,000) changes in labor reform, which allow more easily dismissed if there is accumulation of casualties. The former Secretary of State for Social Security, Octavio Granado, believes that this estimate is very low. In recent years, this item has been reduced by forced marches. In 2011, the temporary disability payment fell 9.3%, but Granado doubt that this rate can be maintained long. Yes, I think Conde-Ruiz, FEDEA, an organization sponsored by the big public companies, because the job losses this provision favors.
Social Security believes it will raise more than in 2011 despite the recession
Conde-Ruiz, however, they do see a projected pension expenditure very low. Although the official thinks you can find arguments in bad labor market situation and markets: "The voluntary early retirement will fall. It is shown that when the stock exchange or return on pension plans fall, workers postponing retirement. Also, if a parent has their children in unemployment is likely to postpone their retirement plans. "
On the other side of the coin, revenues, also accounts of the pension system have any gaps. The deepening crisis and the return of the recession sank contributions in the second half of 2011 and the pension system ended with a deficit of 2,500 million. The outlook has not improved for 2012, but the projected macroeconomic collapse in employment of 3.7%.
The Government takes the same percentage to calculate the drop in fee income, 3.7%, but could have been granted reduced if it predicts will increase in compensation per employee (0.25). Instead, the starting point is not collected in 2011 (105.354 million) but the budget (110,447,000). Thus, it is explained that the Government anticipates that in 2012 will collect more money from fees (106,322) than last year although there will be 630,000 fewer jobs. If you had started from the budget execution, the result would have been 101 455 000.
The Secretariat of State for Budget argues that if expected revenue growth of 850 million is because they anticipate a decline of 1,900 million by the smaller number of contributors, to be offset by 949 million by increasing the base, and 1,801 of the control campaign fraud.
"This budget has been like we were in September [when typically developed] and not in March, which is a budget implementation. And in 2010, and we were wrong, "Granado attacks.
Analyzed the major items on the side of pension costs (tax) and income (contributions), the diversion end could be around 6,800 million (almost 0.7% of GDP), although this figure, if inflation remain at 1.5% and applies the wage increase provided by the Government would be in about 5,500 million.
The other threat of unemployment
The other great pillar of the Social Security accounts in the national accounts is the protection against unemployment. In 2010, peaked in this game, 32,200 million, and last year fell to 29,578. The Government expects this trend to continue this year to expect a cost of 28.503 million to pay unemployment benefits and allowances.
"The reduction corresponds to the decline in spending on unemployment which was started in 2011 and is consistent with it," he explained in the Treasury, where no clear cut answer that does not come from cuts in benefits or accumulated individual grants.
Jobs expects to pay less in unemployment in 2011 despite rising spending until February
Despite the Government's argument, data from the Public Employment Service show that from April 2011 the decline in spending on benefits would braking. Picked up again in January (0.5%) over the same month last year and in February, up 3.4%. As if this were not enough, the best indicator of how you can evolve this expense, the tax benefit claims, does not offer hopeful signs: in February 2012 was up 18%.
With these figures, Garcia, CC OO, believes it will keep spending in 2011. Believes that the trend of spending the first months of the year will be mitigated because, he estimates, will run a very significant number of contributory benefits. Although there are more pessimistic predictions, such as Angel Laborda, director of the Situation of Funcas panel, which encrypts the deviation in about 3,000 million.
Amnesty or toast in the sun
They call it "extraordinary regularization process" and is a tax amnesty. The government offers tax evaders to launder money, property or rights-of confidential in exchange for paying a tax of 10% (the top rate of income tax comes to 52%), thus expected to surface 25,000 million, and therefore collected 2,500 million. What is the criterion to estimate that figure? Not explained.
"Trying to capture opaque assets is very difficult and those who have chosen this experience have had little success," said Prof. Juan José Rubio. Other experts agree the limited impact of these processes: the majority of countries entering less than expected. One example is Germany in 2003. He tried to repatriate 100,000 million, but remained at 20,000 and finally applied a much higher premium to Spanish: 25%. The most recent case is that of Italy in 2010: with fines of 5% to 7%, allowed emerge evaded 104,500 million (and collect more than 5,000 million).
The Spanish government decided to introduce it in the budget at the last minute. The measure is completed by another window for companies to repatriate their offshore funds taxed at 8%, which hopes to raise 750 million.
"Just as the other sections are well explained, this is hard to know what they think is going to bring out those 25,000 million, no way of extrapolating the results of further amnesties," said Luis del Amo.
Treasury admits it is difficult to set a criterion for forecasting in this section, as this economy, and refers to the latest international experiences. On Friday there was another announcement by the Government to continue to fight the deficit, an anti-fraud plan to raise more than 8,000 million.
47,000 million in VAT. Without raising rates?
The finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, has scored a victory for the moment, within the government, not having raised VAT. But the forecasts on which the Executive plans to raise this tax this year (47.691 million euros, 3.3% less than the amount collected in the previous year) seem difficult to sustain the economy back into a spin.
In 2011, VAT revenue improved by 0.4% only, but by increasing the rates of the previous year, in July 2010, the overall increased from 16% to 18% - and meager economic growth, but growth - 0.7% in the year. This year, however, does not have the impact of higher interest rates and an estimated drop in GDP of 1.7%. The fall of domestic final consumption worsens: we have to compare the fall of 0.7% last year to 3.1% expected this. And yet this change of scenery falling tax revenue has been estimated that Rajoy are these 2,300 million less. ¿Fit it? "With the worsening labor market, reducing consumption and home purchases that VAT reduction as predicted minimum is meaningless," says Rubio.
Will it for both the rise in companies?
The government hopes bagging 19.564 million for corporation tax. There are 2,953 more than last year, an increase of 17.8%. Where do they come? The reform of the tax-limit expense deductions, accelerated depreciation removed-involves an injection of 5,350 million, explaining the budget. Income from companies without this increase, would be in 14,214, less than 2.3397 million in 2011. For Del Amo, this expectation is realistic collection because it provides for the reduction excluding the effect of the tax increase.
But revenue rose Societies in 2011 after three years at the low and the increase, 413 million (2.5%), was exclusively due to regulatory changes. "There is a forecast of falling real, but the scenario is much worse than in 2011, under the circumstances the estimate is high," said Juan Jose Rubio. He also warns that the tax base will be strongly affected by the provisions of the banking, financial reform stands at 50,000 million, "which will cease to pay taxes."
Difficult adjustment in the communities
All eyes turn to, rather against, the autonomous communities. The Brussels and the market. They are most deviated from the deficit target in 2011. And therein lies one of the major uncertainties of the accounts of 2012, also produced when virtually all regional budgets were already made and approved. So, have to be redone.
The European Commission, in fact, asked for an explanation on the regional administrations prior to detailed analysis of the accounts. In the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy May, thus bringing together the 17 autonomous central government, is played much of the success of this chapter. And it is not easy agreement.
Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Duke University, as an example of a doubt one of the data: Capital transfers to the autonomous status will drop by 61%, "when that communities budgeted capital income represent half a drop of only 12%. " In this section of regional accounts also include transfers from Brussels, but have a very limited weight.
State investment fell by 24.9% and transfers to specific policies (employment, health or education) 44.5% collapse. Autonomous governments are not easily, at least politically easy, apply the scissors, six of every 10 euros of public spending going on Health, Education and Social Services. For Castells, "the political discourse of blaming the deficit regions is absolutely disproportionate, it is a wrong and unjust speech based on the expenses they are entitled."
Finance appeals to "can not achieve an objective of national budgetary stability without considering that more than half of public expenditure is managed by regional administrations." And ensure that measures such as the rise of personal income tax or property tax help municipalities and communities. In addition, the entry into force of budgetary stability legislation, which seeks to control the autonomic fiscal discipline and punish communities provides non-compliant.
Concerns about financial costs
In Spain he will this year in debt interest about 28.848 million euros, equivalent to 2.75% of GDP and 5.3% more than last year. For Jose Luis Martinez Campuzano, a strategist at Citi, "is a reasonable increase, there is little deviation because it is calculated on the media type of emissions that expires in 2012." This type is at 3.47%.
Uncertainty in this chapter has to do with market volatility and short-term debt. When the government approved the budget, the Spanish risk premium (the premium paid by the 10-year bonds over the Germans) was at 355 basis points (or 3.5 percentage points), but this week touched up the 433, and the almost 6% interest. If he raises interest in the market tends to increase the price of the auction of Treasury debt, which is paid in future years when it comes to bonuses of 12 months, but will affect the short-term letters. Still, Marisa Mazo, Savings Corporation, notes that the rise in these auctions do not cease to be "chocolate gold in total spending."
"They are war budgets." The Foreign Minister Garcia Margallo, turned to drama in explaining the toughest adjustment of Democracy: 27,300 million. More or less war, more or fewer gaps, the problem is that these accounts, 2013 will have to address the same challenge, or greater, the 2012, in the end, do not add up.
"It's very difficult for these budgets to reduce the deficit by 3.2 percentage points of GDP as it has undertaken in Brussels. In fact, the fall in non-financial expenditure only 1.1% lower compared to the budget execution in 2011, "says José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz Foundation for Applied Economic Studies (FEDEA)," To comply would have to do the further adjustment of our history and this can only be done by touching the large expenditure items such as salaries, wages, pensions and benefits, all totaling more than 22% of GDP. Another thing is that this is the best suited to Spain at this time of deep recession. "
Not comply with Brussels without touching the major items of public expenditure
Conde-Ruiz, FEDEA
The recession of the Conde-Ruiz speaking is a contraction of economic activity of 1.7% this year, according to government estimates, and would bring the number of unemployed to a figure close to six million. The market is creaking Spanish National Budget 2012. Many economists also: saying that devalue social spending and income are optimistic. Brussels keeps its final analysis for when you know what happens to communities, doubt about these accounts, leaving almost half of the adjustment in some regions than hands will have to rework their budgets.
"Deficit reduction has to be more gradual, because the austerity measure alone will not help to reduce it ... but I can say this because I'm not councilor, if even it were, should just meet," said Professor Antoni Castells, Minister of Economy of the recent tripartite government in Catalonia, adding: "This recession is forcing European political mistake this rate adjustment, but Spain can not speak out because the suspended student who has no credibility to call for review the examination, must the other, Spain must comply. "
And Spain is committed. "For the Spanish case, the various estimates available suggest that a 1% less than GDP causes a drop in revenues of close to 0.4% and a slight increase in spending. Between the fall of income and increased expenses, a decline in GDP of 1% leads to an increase in the deficit of around 0.5% of GDP, "says James Lake, professor of applied economics at the University of Vigo. According to these data, "the estimated revenue of the budget are optimistic" and "this is compounded by uncertainty about the effects of the tax amnesty: the available studies on previous amnesties in Spain invited to be very cautious about its effectiveness" .
Deficit reduction should be gradual, without further austerity does not help reduce
Antoni Castells
In this thesis aims Miguel Angel Garcia, director of the Economic Cabinet of CCOO: "Budgets are based on a very positive evolution in income. In direct and indirect taxes underestimated the impact of the recession. "
If the accounts do not add up throughout the year, we review the measures, and this, in the 2012 European means more cuts. Just a week after passing the Budget, the Government announced no concrete reforms and adjustments in health and education with an expected saving of 10,000 million this year. "But that is in the fiscal adjustment communities," says Lake.
For Juan José Rubio, professor of Public Finance and former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, "is an overstatement of income in all areas."
Then there are the standard deviations. From Duke University in the United States, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, warns that current expenditure on goods and services usually budgeted to decline. "In recent years they have spent from 25% to 30% more than budgeted each year," he says. Luis del Amo, manager of the Register of Economists and Tax Consultants (REAF) notes that income "are not resoundingly optimistic" but lacking specificity in some chapters, but stresses that are lower income without tax increases. For example, increased income tax revenue (3,303,000) is less than the estimated impact of rising, 4,100. The question is whether this decline of less than 1,000 million excluding the effect of the charge will be fulfilled in this context.
The Ministry of Finance estimate stands and sees the "prudent and reasonable." State revenues amounted to 119.223 million, 14.28% more, including 12,200 million the tax increase, plus noninterest income, which do not conform to economic developments. "Discounting this double effect, state revenues would fall on those of 2011, falling in line with the decline in economic activity expected -0.7% in nominal terms," emphasized in the Secretariat of State Budgets.
Investors, for now, have a romp on the Stock Exchange and the Spanish public debt. For example, one of the most common lamps on the market, Goldman Sachs predicted a day after the accounts were presented to the end deficit at 6.7%, 1.4 points above the committed. The largest investment bank in the world the first accounts of Rajoy in La Moncloa also did not add up.
Pensions, the Achilles heel
The Social Security numbers have raised suspicions since the government announced that in 2012 the public school would have as much income as an expense. In the minds of citizens is synonymous Social Security pension. But when it comes to national accounting becomes an umbrella under which to group the pension system, the Public Employment Service and the Wage Guarantee Fund. In 2011 the trio closed with a deficit of 0.09% minimum. The situation will worsen in 2012 and, instead, the government has maintained its forecast. "Impossible." It is the conclusion we have reached most of those consulted for this story. "Difficult," conclude the least.
Although there are those who point to Administrative Law nuance, you can always have a special credit of the Government to compensate the deviation party sources said between one and a half of GDP, from 10,000 to 5,000 million. But the red ink will not imply that pensions be paid leave. Social Security have savings with which to face the hard times: there are resources in the Treasury, is the Mutual Fund Prevention, about 6,000 million, according to the newspaper Abc forward are the resource that the Secretary of State Tomas Burgos, thinks the shortfall this year, and finally the more than 66,000 million from the Reserve Fund.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the year-end deficit will be 6.7%
The biggest question of Social Security accounts is in pensions. Of the more than 115,000 million will be used to pay pensions, the 101,953 calculated for the tax are proving insufficient. "It is undervalued," Miguel Angel Garcia value of CCOO. It is based on Social Security estimated that this item will go up by 2.9% more than budgeted last year and 2.3% of final expenditure. They forecast the variation could be around 4.5%, in line with the evolution of the first two months of the year, and thinking that inflation could be around 1.5% at the end of the year.
The numbers are closer union, but fall short, to an internal report prepared for the Social Security budget unborn Zapatero government puts it at about 4,400 million (104,861 in total) with inflation of 2 %. This is one of the more predictable items in budgets and also one of the most difficult to cut without cutting pensions. And that is something that Mariano Rajoy, the opposition attacked Zapatero for freezing very hard, can not be allowed without being a very great political erosion.
To find out how much to raise the pension expenditure from one year to another must be put into the calculator three variables: the update according to the evolution of prices, the increase in the average pension and the number of pensioners. Social Security has done a very low calculation predict an increase of 2.9%. Only the pension increase of 1% that the government declared in its first Council of Ministers has already been eaten by that percentage point. And if the end of the year prices rose by 1.9%, as predicted by most research services, the margin narrows in nine tenths. So just subtract one percentage point for the other two variables do not overwhelm the government forecast. Almost nothing if you consider only the increase of retirees in 2010 was 1.5% and in 2011, 1.4%.
Finance explained that this year hope the vegetative growth will slow to 1%, but the report in summer by the public school stood rising 1.6%. Treasury says nothing about the average pay increase that the document puts summer at 1.7% and not the possible deviation of the end of inflation.
There is more uncertainty. For example, there is to know what impact on the low and intended to pay (5,799,000) changes in labor reform, which allow more easily dismissed if there is accumulation of casualties. The former Secretary of State for Social Security, Octavio Granado, believes that this estimate is very low. In recent years, this item has been reduced by forced marches. In 2011, the temporary disability payment fell 9.3%, but Granado doubt that this rate can be maintained long. Yes, I think Conde-Ruiz, FEDEA, an organization sponsored by the big public companies, because the job losses this provision favors.
Social Security believes it will raise more than in 2011 despite the recession
Conde-Ruiz, however, they do see a projected pension expenditure very low. Although the official thinks you can find arguments in bad labor market situation and markets: "The voluntary early retirement will fall. It is shown that when the stock exchange or return on pension plans fall, workers postponing retirement. Also, if a parent has their children in unemployment is likely to postpone their retirement plans. "
On the other side of the coin, revenues, also accounts of the pension system have any gaps. The deepening crisis and the return of the recession sank contributions in the second half of 2011 and the pension system ended with a deficit of 2,500 million. The outlook has not improved for 2012, but the projected macroeconomic collapse in employment of 3.7%.
The Government takes the same percentage to calculate the drop in fee income, 3.7%, but could have been granted reduced if it predicts will increase in compensation per employee (0.25). Instead, the starting point is not collected in 2011 (105.354 million) but the budget (110,447,000). Thus, it is explained that the Government anticipates that in 2012 will collect more money from fees (106,322) than last year although there will be 630,000 fewer jobs. If you had started from the budget execution, the result would have been 101 455 000.
The Secretariat of State for Budget argues that if expected revenue growth of 850 million is because they anticipate a decline of 1,900 million by the smaller number of contributors, to be offset by 949 million by increasing the base, and 1,801 of the control campaign fraud.
"This budget has been like we were in September [when typically developed] and not in March, which is a budget implementation. And in 2010, and we were wrong, "Granado attacks.
Analyzed the major items on the side of pension costs (tax) and income (contributions), the diversion end could be around 6,800 million (almost 0.7% of GDP), although this figure, if inflation remain at 1.5% and applies the wage increase provided by the Government would be in about 5,500 million.
The other threat of unemployment
The other great pillar of the Social Security accounts in the national accounts is the protection against unemployment. In 2010, peaked in this game, 32,200 million, and last year fell to 29,578. The Government expects this trend to continue this year to expect a cost of 28.503 million to pay unemployment benefits and allowances.
"The reduction corresponds to the decline in spending on unemployment which was started in 2011 and is consistent with it," he explained in the Treasury, where no clear cut answer that does not come from cuts in benefits or accumulated individual grants.
Jobs expects to pay less in unemployment in 2011 despite rising spending until February
Despite the Government's argument, data from the Public Employment Service show that from April 2011 the decline in spending on benefits would braking. Picked up again in January (0.5%) over the same month last year and in February, up 3.4%. As if this were not enough, the best indicator of how you can evolve this expense, the tax benefit claims, does not offer hopeful signs: in February 2012 was up 18%.
With these figures, Garcia, CC OO, believes it will keep spending in 2011. Believes that the trend of spending the first months of the year will be mitigated because, he estimates, will run a very significant number of contributory benefits. Although there are more pessimistic predictions, such as Angel Laborda, director of the Situation of Funcas panel, which encrypts the deviation in about 3,000 million.
Amnesty or toast in the sun
They call it "extraordinary regularization process" and is a tax amnesty. The government offers tax evaders to launder money, property or rights-of confidential in exchange for paying a tax of 10% (the top rate of income tax comes to 52%), thus expected to surface 25,000 million, and therefore collected 2,500 million. What is the criterion to estimate that figure? Not explained.
"Trying to capture opaque assets is very difficult and those who have chosen this experience have had little success," said Prof. Juan José Rubio. Other experts agree the limited impact of these processes: the majority of countries entering less than expected. One example is Germany in 2003. He tried to repatriate 100,000 million, but remained at 20,000 and finally applied a much higher premium to Spanish: 25%. The most recent case is that of Italy in 2010: with fines of 5% to 7%, allowed emerge evaded 104,500 million (and collect more than 5,000 million).
The Spanish government decided to introduce it in the budget at the last minute. The measure is completed by another window for companies to repatriate their offshore funds taxed at 8%, which hopes to raise 750 million.
"Just as the other sections are well explained, this is hard to know what they think is going to bring out those 25,000 million, no way of extrapolating the results of further amnesties," said Luis del Amo.
Treasury admits it is difficult to set a criterion for forecasting in this section, as this economy, and refers to the latest international experiences. On Friday there was another announcement by the Government to continue to fight the deficit, an anti-fraud plan to raise more than 8,000 million.
47,000 million in VAT. Without raising rates?
The finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, has scored a victory for the moment, within the government, not having raised VAT. But the forecasts on which the Executive plans to raise this tax this year (47.691 million euros, 3.3% less than the amount collected in the previous year) seem difficult to sustain the economy back into a spin.
In 2011, VAT revenue improved by 0.4% only, but by increasing the rates of the previous year, in July 2010, the overall increased from 16% to 18% - and meager economic growth, but growth - 0.7% in the year. This year, however, does not have the impact of higher interest rates and an estimated drop in GDP of 1.7%. The fall of domestic final consumption worsens: we have to compare the fall of 0.7% last year to 3.1% expected this. And yet this change of scenery falling tax revenue has been estimated that Rajoy are these 2,300 million less. ¿Fit it? "With the worsening labor market, reducing consumption and home purchases that VAT reduction as predicted minimum is meaningless," says Rubio.
Will it for both the rise in companies?
The government hopes bagging 19.564 million for corporation tax. There are 2,953 more than last year, an increase of 17.8%. Where do they come? The reform of the tax-limit expense deductions, accelerated depreciation removed-involves an injection of 5,350 million, explaining the budget. Income from companies without this increase, would be in 14,214, less than 2.3397 million in 2011. For Del Amo, this expectation is realistic collection because it provides for the reduction excluding the effect of the tax increase.
But revenue rose Societies in 2011 after three years at the low and the increase, 413 million (2.5%), was exclusively due to regulatory changes. "There is a forecast of falling real, but the scenario is much worse than in 2011, under the circumstances the estimate is high," said Juan Jose Rubio. He also warns that the tax base will be strongly affected by the provisions of the banking, financial reform stands at 50,000 million, "which will cease to pay taxes."
Difficult adjustment in the communities
All eyes turn to, rather against, the autonomous communities. The Brussels and the market. They are most deviated from the deficit target in 2011. And therein lies one of the major uncertainties of the accounts of 2012, also produced when virtually all regional budgets were already made and approved. So, have to be redone.
The European Commission, in fact, asked for an explanation on the regional administrations prior to detailed analysis of the accounts. In the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy May, thus bringing together the 17 autonomous central government, is played much of the success of this chapter. And it is not easy agreement.
Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Duke University, as an example of a doubt one of the data: Capital transfers to the autonomous status will drop by 61%, "when that communities budgeted capital income represent half a drop of only 12%. " In this section of regional accounts also include transfers from Brussels, but have a very limited weight.
State investment fell by 24.9% and transfers to specific policies (employment, health or education) 44.5% collapse. Autonomous governments are not easily, at least politically easy, apply the scissors, six of every 10 euros of public spending going on Health, Education and Social Services. For Castells, "the political discourse of blaming the deficit regions is absolutely disproportionate, it is a wrong and unjust speech based on the expenses they are entitled."
Finance appeals to "can not achieve an objective of national budgetary stability without considering that more than half of public expenditure is managed by regional administrations." And ensure that measures such as the rise of personal income tax or property tax help municipalities and communities. In addition, the entry into force of budgetary stability legislation, which seeks to control the autonomic fiscal discipline and punish communities provides non-compliant.
Concerns about financial costs
In Spain he will this year in debt interest about 28.848 million euros, equivalent to 2.75% of GDP and 5.3% more than last year. For Jose Luis Martinez Campuzano, a strategist at Citi, "is a reasonable increase, there is little deviation because it is calculated on the media type of emissions that expires in 2012." This type is at 3.47%.
Uncertainty in this chapter has to do with market volatility and short-term debt. When the government approved the budget, the Spanish risk premium (the premium paid by the 10-year bonds over the Germans) was at 355 basis points (or 3.5 percentage points), but this week touched up the 433, and the almost 6% interest. If he raises interest in the market tends to increase the price of the auction of Treasury debt, which is paid in future years when it comes to bonuses of 12 months, but will affect the short-term letters. Still, Marisa Mazo, Savings Corporation, notes that the rise in these auctions do not cease to be "chocolate gold in total spending."
"They are war budgets." The Foreign Minister Garcia Margallo, turned to drama in explaining the toughest adjustment of Democracy: 27,300 million. More or less war, more or fewer gaps, the problem is that these accounts, 2013 will have to address the same challenge, or greater, the 2012, in the end, do not add up.
スペインのラジョイ大統領の国家予算の見積は、破綻ー歳出は失業者や年金生活者の増加により増大し、歳入は失業者の増加により、社会保険料や所得税や事業税は減少
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