El FMI descarta que el déficit de España alcance el 3% al menos hasta 2018
El desfase presupuestario se situará en el 6% del PIB este año, frente al 5,3% previsto
Para el año que viene la reducción será de apenas tres décimas, hasta el 5,7%
ALICIA GONZÁLEZ Washington17 ABR 2012 - 16:59 CET
国際通過基金は、スペインの財政赤字は、2012年はGDPの6%(5'7%)、2013年は5'7%と予測、財政赤字がGDPの3%になるのは早くて2018年
The IMF dismisses Spain's deficit to 3% at least until 2018
The budget gap will be at 6% of GDP this year, compared with 5.3% expected
For next year the reduction will be just three tenths to 5.7%
ALICIA GONZALEZ Washington 17 ABR 2012 - 16:59 CET
The budget gap will be at 6% of GDP this year, compared with 5.3% expected
For next year the reduction will be just three tenths to 5.7%
ALICIA GONZALEZ Washington 17 ABR 2012 - 16:59 CET
New setback for the government's economic plans. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) debunks adjustment plans and ruled that the government deficit will stand at 3% of GDP by at least 2018. A level that the government is committed to achieve, however, in 2013 and also seem wary of the markets, is evolving view of how the risk premium and the renewed tensions over the Spanish debt. The spread of Spanish bond with the 10-year German bond continues today on 400 points (four points).
According to the technicians of the Fund, the deficit will fall to 6% of GDP this year compared to 5.3% committed by the Government, and next year the reduction will be just three tenths to 5.7% , far below the 3% target set in the Stability Plan and required by EU deficit hawks, especially Germany. Even some improvement in the Spanish economic scenario for 2013, with GDP increasing by 0.1% against 0.3% drop estimated just three months, will accelerate the setting. In fact, public debt will continue to grow, to 79% of GDP this year and 84% in 2013 - largely as a result of provider payment plans of municipalities that will transform the commercial debt into public debt. And the unemployment rate will climb to 24.2% of the workforce to be reduced only a few tenths to 23.9% in 2013.
more informationThe IMF left Spain out of the nascent economic recoveryFeature: Mr. President, the accounts do not add up
It is the first assessment made by the agency of the Spanish tax situation after the presentation of the Budget for 2012, although the text of the report admits that "the draft Budget for 2012 was not available in time for the Fund staff estimates", so do not take into account specific measures such as the final number of spending cuts, tax amnesty or relief to leading corporate income tax.
Despite the important nuance, projections exude enough distrust the promises of the Spanish government because they place the pace of deficit reduction over the next five years in just half a year, off the pace being applied by other developed countries. The agency notes that this year and next, deficits in the developed economies will be reduced more than one point of GDP a year. "This is, in general, quite appropriate, although countries with sufficient fiscal space should consider reducing the rate of short-term adjustment to minimize the risks" that cuts pose to the growing point.
It would have been preferable to setting a rate of slightly more moderate "
IMF Report
To a large extent, this is the recipe that the IMF supports for Spain. In the report, the agency emphasizes that the goal of 5.3% announced by the government, far from the 4% originally planned, "understandably seeks to achieve a fiscal consolidation is largely appropriate, although it would have been preferable to slightly adjust the rate of more moderate to accompany cycle events. In fact, that's what will happen if the forecasts of the leading team Cotarelli Carlo, director of fiscal affairs of the body.
Given such developments, it seems that other experts warning that without further structural reforms and significant cuts in spending most sensitive items (health and education in particular) will be almost impossible to achieve the Kyoto targets by the Government of Mariano Rajoy. And an important recommendation for all countries, "the settings must be accompanied by various and active communication campaigns to instill confidence and credibility."
A task, the latter, who is finding it not easy but essential to the executive. Therefore, the IMF pointed out in his report that "trust is lost more easily than it recovers."
According to the technicians of the Fund, the deficit will fall to 6% of GDP this year compared to 5.3% committed by the Government, and next year the reduction will be just three tenths to 5.7% , far below the 3% target set in the Stability Plan and required by EU deficit hawks, especially Germany. Even some improvement in the Spanish economic scenario for 2013, with GDP increasing by 0.1% against 0.3% drop estimated just three months, will accelerate the setting. In fact, public debt will continue to grow, to 79% of GDP this year and 84% in 2013 - largely as a result of provider payment plans of municipalities that will transform the commercial debt into public debt. And the unemployment rate will climb to 24.2% of the workforce to be reduced only a few tenths to 23.9% in 2013.
more informationThe IMF left Spain out of the nascent economic recoveryFeature: Mr. President, the accounts do not add up
It is the first assessment made by the agency of the Spanish tax situation after the presentation of the Budget for 2012, although the text of the report admits that "the draft Budget for 2012 was not available in time for the Fund staff estimates", so do not take into account specific measures such as the final number of spending cuts, tax amnesty or relief to leading corporate income tax.
Despite the important nuance, projections exude enough distrust the promises of the Spanish government because they place the pace of deficit reduction over the next five years in just half a year, off the pace being applied by other developed countries. The agency notes that this year and next, deficits in the developed economies will be reduced more than one point of GDP a year. "This is, in general, quite appropriate, although countries with sufficient fiscal space should consider reducing the rate of short-term adjustment to minimize the risks" that cuts pose to the growing point.
It would have been preferable to setting a rate of slightly more moderate "
IMF Report
To a large extent, this is the recipe that the IMF supports for Spain. In the report, the agency emphasizes that the goal of 5.3% announced by the government, far from the 4% originally planned, "understandably seeks to achieve a fiscal consolidation is largely appropriate, although it would have been preferable to slightly adjust the rate of more moderate to accompany cycle events. In fact, that's what will happen if the forecasts of the leading team Cotarelli Carlo, director of fiscal affairs of the body.
Given such developments, it seems that other experts warning that without further structural reforms and significant cuts in spending most sensitive items (health and education in particular) will be almost impossible to achieve the Kyoto targets by the Government of Mariano Rajoy. And an important recommendation for all countries, "the settings must be accompanied by various and active communication campaigns to instill confidence and credibility."
A task, the latter, who is finding it not easy but essential to the executive. Therefore, the IMF pointed out in his report that "trust is lost more easily than it recovers."
国際通過基金は、スペインの財政赤字(債務)は、2012年はGDPの6%(5'7%)、2013年は5'7%と予測、財政赤字(債務)がGDPの3%になるのは早くて2018年
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿