スペインの自動車製造業界では、不況の底を着き、景気はゆっくりと回復兆候。
El año de la reválida
El sector del automóvil acaba el ejercicio con la esperanza de que su caída haya tocado fondo
y cruza los dedos para que 2014 confirme la tendencia de una industria clave para España
Manuel Gómez Blanco 7 DIC 2013 - 00:00 CET
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The year of the revalidation
The automotive finishes the year with the hope that his fall has bottomed
and cross your fingers for 2014 confirm the trend of a key industry for Spain
Manuel Gómez White 7 DIC 2013 - 00:00 CET
Good Vibrations . If the domestic automotive industry was a barometer accurately reflect the economic reality of Spain , one could argue that the economy has hit bottom in the recession and start the road to recovery . While not an absolutely reliable indicator , the sector clings fiercely to good data in recent months . And these advertised several trends , all positive .
On the commercial side is taking a seemingly strong and sustained sales in the domestic market , with consecutive increases in the last three months recovery. Sales growth has been supported in part by incentive plans and PIMA Air PIVE . And it led to the arrest a fall that seemed bottomless , finally putting positive annual figures (+2.1 %) for the first time in a long time. So while until shortly before the summer pessimism prevailed among many industry executives and some quietly declaring his fear that the market falls below 700,000 units , now the picture has changed dramatically and is expected to graze 800,000 registrations in 2013 , adding cars and light commercial vehicles. And the progress of recent months has not only prevented a further fall, but could add to the end of the year about 25,000 units sales last year.
The market accumulates increases sales in the last three months
Another positive aspect is that growth is centered on the individual channel , the healthiest because it leaves more markup than the other two , and rental companies . Sales to private customers rose 33 % in November and accumulated a rise of 16.3% in the full year , which begins to draw a clear upward trend in the graphs.
But perhaps the most interesting fact is the increase in sales of light commercial vehicles , small vans and delivery of goods . This segment sales are traditionally considered a very reliable in detecting the outputs of the crisis leading indicator , because their buyers are self-employed professionals and small businesses . And while the numbers still are modest compared to those achieved in the higher moments of the boom, five months leading up to rates close to 25% , with nearly 77,000 units in November , up 8.5 % on 2012 and exceeding sales and full last year.
Ascent from Hell
The Spanish car market seems to have begun to bottom out in recent months , but the increase can not hide the fact that the sales figures are still light years away from the pre-crisis record highs , when registrations came to exceed 1 7 million vehicles in Spain .
After the end of November , the market stood at 2.1% over 2012 , but the rise has been based on improvements in sales for the last three months: 28.5 % in September , 34.4 % in October and 15.5 % in November (with a year less than the previous business day) .
The concentration of the improvement in the last quarter of the year (because in December are also expected to maintain the positive trend ) can ensure continued growth at least for the first two quarters of 2014 , which in 2013 had very modest figures registrations .
The good signs are repeated on an industrial scale , which is also positive. The allotment of new models that have earned the Spanish plants in tough battle with other European countries and even start emerging and noted and reflected in domestic production , which will grow to 2.2 million vehicles in 2013. This represents 8% more than in 2012 and secured to Spain in the second European carmakers , ahead of France and only behind Germany unattainable .
The great common hope that the sector is now 2014 confirmed a robust recovery . And there are reasons for optimism . According to the latest study ANFAC ( National Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Trucks ), the Spanish market has a deficit of about 2.2 million vehicles had to be renovated in recent years and has not been done by the crisis and economic uncertainties . According to David Barrientos , director of communication ANFAC, " we are still in modest volumes , far from what should be the natural market of Spain by income per capita and economic development, between 1.2 and 1.3 million units. The aging of the park in some regions is up one and even two years higher than the mean, which is already in 10 years. "
José Manuel Machado, President of Ford Spain and former president of ANFAC shift until the end of his term in July, also agrees with the reservoir demand as one of the most hopeful aspects overlooking the new year: "Right now we sell cars customers who have no choice but to change them, because they have already served more than 10 years. We are replacing park, but as the economy recovers back to where we were and people change car before withstand no more. "
If there really is more than two million vehicles without renewing deficit because their owners have postponed the purchase decision , the Spanish market could be fired in 2014 for that positive news on the economic recovery is confirmed and starting to sink in society. This happened two years ago in the United States : the market went to draw an L , with the flat base after the harrowing fall that followed the record 2005 ( 17.4 million units), to define a U confirming the takeoff vertically. In this country , sales rose from 11.7 million in 2010 to 13 million in 2011 , 14.7 million in 2012 and about 16.5 million projected for this year ( November to November totaling 16.3 million units).
"We sell cars that have no choice but to change "
Some voices in Spain reflect optimism on the rise. This is the case of Aniacam ( National Association of Importers of cars and trucks ), which just announced a forecast of 750,000 units for 2014 alone in cars , 30,000 more than originally planned for closure this year , leading to about 850,000 if vehicles in total light commercial grow at the same rate .
Another detail endorses this. Few days , one of the presidents of a brand factory in Spain with only declared ago : "Since 2008 , every time we sent our forecast sales next year to the home office , we returned them recessed . This year is the first time we have responded with higher than ours , which already included a significant growth " figures .
As regards the industrial level, the uncertainties are smaller and are approaching the sector to dream of meeting the Plan 3 Million ANFAC , a goal that when announced was dismissed as utopian by most critics and is starting to look more and more realizable . Currently , production, last year touched the two million vehicles ( 1,979,179 ) , will stand at 2.2 million when 2013 ends . And in 2014 is expected to reach 2.4 million, thanks in part to the latest awards of new vehicles that have won the Spanish factories , which will start production next year. In fact, if in 2011 occurred in our country 34 different models in 2013 are already 39 , and the figure will rise to 45 in 2015.
In Spain are now larger and higher economic value models
This increase also reflects the versatility of our plants , but hides a perhaps more important aspect . If even just a decade ago , our factories were specialized in making small cars , mostly SUVs, now increasingly larger models are made , which means higher value added. And those higher selling prices help to improve the trade balance by increasing the income of which is exported, 90% of national production .
There are some examples that confirm both the increase in production in 2014 as the greatest value creation. In the first case , the new generation of Citroën Picasso and Grand Picasso , which were launched this year , will reach its cruising speed in 2014 and increase factory production of Vigo. Ford also will fill Almussafes with the arrival of the Tourneo van, and especially the new Mondeo to be produced to meet the European market. The production of PSA 's factory in Villaverde also grow with the Citroen C -Cactus and Mercedes in Vitoria , with the launch of the new Class V , which will be produced exclusively for everyone . And Opel to start production mid-year Figueruelas the Mokka SUV , which until now was made in Korea and increase the volume of the plant.
All these models , without exception, have replaced the assembly to smaller and less value , both economic and technological . And confirm that the Spanish automotive industry adopted with notice pending challenges in recent years , and the competitiveness and flexibility of the factories has gone from being questioned to be among the industry benchmarks . As this newspaper declared global head of the Renault -Nissan Alliance , Carlos Ghosn, at the last Geneva Motor Show, " Spain is currently one of the best places in the world to build cars ."
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