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欧州委員会は、スペイン政府に、破綻寸前の銀行に欧州救済資金から資本増強のために直接資金注入する救済を要求するように示唆
La Unión Europea anima a España al rescate financiero
Europa debe modificar la norma para permitir una inyección directa a la banca
Alemania presiona para que el Ejecutivo español recurra al fondo de ayuda
Luis Doncel Bruselas3 JUN 2012 - 00:00 CET
The European Union encourages Spain to bailout
Europe must change the rule to allow direct injection to the banking
Germany pressured to resort to the Spanish government relief fund
Luis Doncel Brussels 3 JUN 2012 - 00:00 CET
Europe must change the rule to allow direct injection to the banking
Germany pressured to resort to the Spanish government relief fund
Luis Doncel Brussels 3 JUN 2012 - 00:00 CET
The great taboo is broken. The unnameable is here. The rescue of one of the four largest euro zone no longer seems the prognosis of the lords of darkness. The lethal mix of a recession that promises to lengthen with the huge bill that has left the hole in the banking Spain pushes ever closer to Greece, Ireland or Portugal.
It is hard to find these days in Brussels, a senior official or a responsible politician, always anonymous, do not assume that Spain will end up asking for outside help to avoid falling into insolvency. "Just numbers. Where will reach tens of billions needed for the Spanish financial system to recapitalize? Current market conditions make it virtually impossible to get there, "EU sources say.
The weekly Der Spiegel, as reported yesterday, reported in its Monday edition that the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, pressed his counterpart Luis de Guindos for Spain to resort to European rescue fund. The magazine claims that the German government, which estimates the capital needs of Spanish banks between 50,000 and 90,000 million, this option was decided earlier this week. Schäuble it referred to the Spanish minister on Wednesday in Berlin, always depending on the version of the magazine. However, Spanish government sources say that the conversation between the two ministers in Berlin focused on the European banking union. German government sources said last night that "only Spain may decide to ask for a bailout. No more. "
Barroso is in favor of cleaning up the entities without going through the State
Brussels is aware of the destructive potential that could have a Spanish rescue. Therefore prefer that the recapitalization was done through private investors or public debt. But these options seem unfeasible, so that the European institutions indicate that there is money and the necessary mechanisms to prevent a collapse of Spanish banks.
To circumvent the disaster is only relying on Mario Draghi. But the European Central Bank President reiterated this week that their work is not "fill the gap left by the inaction of governments". If the worst happens finally, there remains a doubt whether the rescue organizations will address problems with Bankia to the head, or if the virus will infect the whole country and will end the state that received the injection.
Even in hell, the shades include: if the loan goes to the government, the country will be subjected to an intervention with all the consequences, in the style of the three who have starred in Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). None of these cases offers a reassuring precedent. If you are the entities, however, Spain would retain some leeway.
Nobody knows much will the bill that taxpayers will end up paying for the excesses of the boxes during the crazy years of the brick. A report released Thursday by Morgan Stanley estimates between 45,000 and 55,000 million capital needs of the financial system, although other analysts raised the shot to 100,000 million. To know exactly it will take later this month, when the consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman published his analysis of the guts of the sector. "The State and the autonomous communities have this year about funding needs (maturities of debt, deficit and capital injection in Bankia) of at least 250,000 million. With the risk premium around 540 points this volume is impossible to issue debt. No choice but to seek outside help, "says the professor of the University of Valencia Joaquin Maudos.
Some countries require that if there should be rescue, is the earliest
One day before the usually cautious economy minister, Luis de Guindos, admitted that the future of the euro will be played in Spain and Italy in the coming weeks, President of the Commission José Manuel Barroso, suggested changing the rules for the European rescue fund all its power to plug directly into banks, bypassing the state. But, as recalled by the commissioner Olli Rehn, the current rules prevent it.
Only an agreement of EU leaders who will be in Brussels on 28 and 29 June would slightly loosen the noose that tightens to Spain. "It seems difficult to change as fast rules, but this crisis and we have been accustomed to at the last minute decisions are made that many thought impossible," say sources from the Commission. "The direct recapitalization is the best option. The bailout fund could be the germ of the European banking union, although currently does not have the necessary structure. And that takes time to build, "said Andre Sapir, Bruegel institute.
President Mariano Rajoy is firm, at least in front of microphones, in which Spain does not require any type of rescue. "It's not about the apocalypse. We will not sink, "he said yesterday. "Direct injection is a Government initiative. And in any case would be valid for all European banks, not only for Spanish, "says a spokesman for the Ministry of Economy. But the initiative has more problems. The largest is called Angela Merkel. The Chancellor has made clear that rejects a bailout of sly, not go directly to a Government accountable on the new money it receives from Europe. "Loans only change of sovereignty" could be the leitmotiv German.
The Irish Mirror
A hole in the bank than 50,000 million. A government that covers it with taxpayers' money. A country that eventually forced to ask for money from Europe and the IMF to avoid bankruptcy. Is Spain in the summer of 2012? No, Ireland last year and half.
Apart from the differences-draining public funds into the financial system in Dublin deficit shot up to 32% of GDP, many Europeans have a sense of deja vu with Spanish turbulence. "It seems to follow the same pattern. But in this case would be much more serious. The sum of the three countries rescued equals half of the Spanish economy. Europe needs to rethink its strategy and it is obvious that extreme austerity prescriptions have not brought anything good, "says Simon Tilford of the Center for European Reform.
Even a bible of liberalism as The Economist asked on Friday that Spain was release from the bondage of fiscal adjustment to focus on a thorough cleaning of its financial system.
The Commission is satisfied with the results achieved in Dublin and Lisbon. "Things in Ireland are not going wrong. And in Portugal can go well. The two countries are very serious and are taking very tough measures, "EU sources say.
A diametrically opposite view has the Irish Kevin O'Rourke, professor of economics at Trinity College. "The Spanish have to learn several lessons. No guarantee all the debts of their banks. Investors lose their money, insuring deposits up to a reasonable amount. Be prepared to face the pressure of the ECB if necessary: not on your side. " It ends with a warning: "If you are stupid enough to repeat the mistakes of Ireland, I mereceréis all your going to happen."
In a week in which the word "Spain" has dominated the front pages of Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal even published that the IMF has already prepared contingency plans to rescue the fourth largest economy in the euro-assertion contradicted both by the Government and by the Fund itself, 'the minister Guindos travel to Berlin and the vice president, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, Washington contributed to dispel suspicions that something serious is about to occur. To make matters worse, the possible departure of Greece's euro merely complicate the situation.
But can Europe afford to drop to an economy of the importance of Spanish? "I think the right question is not that, but whether Europe can continue with the uncertainty created by the Spanish banking problems. The most urgent is to find a way to recapitalize institutions. And if there are no funds in the country will have to find out, "replies Sapir.
A similar view is Simon Tilford, chief economist at the think tank (group opinion) London Centre for European Reform. "The ECB should ward off the risk of insolvency, but it is very unlikely to want. Hence the need for a European solution, but based on transfers, not loans, "said Tilford. The Commission also advocates a union based European bank, a deposit guarantee fund common and Eurobonds. But it is not clear that these reforms will come in time to save Spain.
The intervention of a door slamming shut Treasury access to credit markets. The consequences can be devastating for the Spanish economy, which in the last quarter has seen a fearless capital flight record of 97,000 million.
The fall of Spain risks in addition to being just another piece in the domino in the eurozone. The markets would point at once to Italy, and later to France and Belgium. "Some northern Europeans say that if we need another bailout, which is as soon as possible to end this nightmare. They do not realize that so begins another lot worse, "said a Commission official.
Meanwhile, Brussels is demanding to Spain as soon as possible to put the cards on the table. The honeymoon with the government ended the disappointment with a Budget that were postponed for political reasons-and that did not include measures requested by the Commission and the increase in VAT. The distrust has been heightened by the continuous upward revisions of the deficit, which has climbed to 8.9% of GDP, doubts about the accounts of autonomy and the crossfire between the Bank of Spain and the Executive. The future of millions of Spanish is played in the coming days.
It is hard to find these days in Brussels, a senior official or a responsible politician, always anonymous, do not assume that Spain will end up asking for outside help to avoid falling into insolvency. "Just numbers. Where will reach tens of billions needed for the Spanish financial system to recapitalize? Current market conditions make it virtually impossible to get there, "EU sources say.
The weekly Der Spiegel, as reported yesterday, reported in its Monday edition that the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, pressed his counterpart Luis de Guindos for Spain to resort to European rescue fund. The magazine claims that the German government, which estimates the capital needs of Spanish banks between 50,000 and 90,000 million, this option was decided earlier this week. Schäuble it referred to the Spanish minister on Wednesday in Berlin, always depending on the version of the magazine. However, Spanish government sources say that the conversation between the two ministers in Berlin focused on the European banking union. German government sources said last night that "only Spain may decide to ask for a bailout. No more. "
Barroso is in favor of cleaning up the entities without going through the State
Brussels is aware of the destructive potential that could have a Spanish rescue. Therefore prefer that the recapitalization was done through private investors or public debt. But these options seem unfeasible, so that the European institutions indicate that there is money and the necessary mechanisms to prevent a collapse of Spanish banks.
To circumvent the disaster is only relying on Mario Draghi. But the European Central Bank President reiterated this week that their work is not "fill the gap left by the inaction of governments". If the worst happens finally, there remains a doubt whether the rescue organizations will address problems with Bankia to the head, or if the virus will infect the whole country and will end the state that received the injection.
Even in hell, the shades include: if the loan goes to the government, the country will be subjected to an intervention with all the consequences, in the style of the three who have starred in Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). None of these cases offers a reassuring precedent. If you are the entities, however, Spain would retain some leeway.
Nobody knows much will the bill that taxpayers will end up paying for the excesses of the boxes during the crazy years of the brick. A report released Thursday by Morgan Stanley estimates between 45,000 and 55,000 million capital needs of the financial system, although other analysts raised the shot to 100,000 million. To know exactly it will take later this month, when the consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman published his analysis of the guts of the sector. "The State and the autonomous communities have this year about funding needs (maturities of debt, deficit and capital injection in Bankia) of at least 250,000 million. With the risk premium around 540 points this volume is impossible to issue debt. No choice but to seek outside help, "says the professor of the University of Valencia Joaquin Maudos.
Some countries require that if there should be rescue, is the earliest
One day before the usually cautious economy minister, Luis de Guindos, admitted that the future of the euro will be played in Spain and Italy in the coming weeks, President of the Commission José Manuel Barroso, suggested changing the rules for the European rescue fund all its power to plug directly into banks, bypassing the state. But, as recalled by the commissioner Olli Rehn, the current rules prevent it.
Only an agreement of EU leaders who will be in Brussels on 28 and 29 June would slightly loosen the noose that tightens to Spain. "It seems difficult to change as fast rules, but this crisis and we have been accustomed to at the last minute decisions are made that many thought impossible," say sources from the Commission. "The direct recapitalization is the best option. The bailout fund could be the germ of the European banking union, although currently does not have the necessary structure. And that takes time to build, "said Andre Sapir, Bruegel institute.
President Mariano Rajoy is firm, at least in front of microphones, in which Spain does not require any type of rescue. "It's not about the apocalypse. We will not sink, "he said yesterday. "Direct injection is a Government initiative. And in any case would be valid for all European banks, not only for Spanish, "says a spokesman for the Ministry of Economy. But the initiative has more problems. The largest is called Angela Merkel. The Chancellor has made clear that rejects a bailout of sly, not go directly to a Government accountable on the new money it receives from Europe. "Loans only change of sovereignty" could be the leitmotiv German.
The Irish Mirror
A hole in the bank than 50,000 million. A government that covers it with taxpayers' money. A country that eventually forced to ask for money from Europe and the IMF to avoid bankruptcy. Is Spain in the summer of 2012? No, Ireland last year and half.
Apart from the differences-draining public funds into the financial system in Dublin deficit shot up to 32% of GDP, many Europeans have a sense of deja vu with Spanish turbulence. "It seems to follow the same pattern. But in this case would be much more serious. The sum of the three countries rescued equals half of the Spanish economy. Europe needs to rethink its strategy and it is obvious that extreme austerity prescriptions have not brought anything good, "says Simon Tilford of the Center for European Reform.
Even a bible of liberalism as The Economist asked on Friday that Spain was release from the bondage of fiscal adjustment to focus on a thorough cleaning of its financial system.
The Commission is satisfied with the results achieved in Dublin and Lisbon. "Things in Ireland are not going wrong. And in Portugal can go well. The two countries are very serious and are taking very tough measures, "EU sources say.
A diametrically opposite view has the Irish Kevin O'Rourke, professor of economics at Trinity College. "The Spanish have to learn several lessons. No guarantee all the debts of their banks. Investors lose their money, insuring deposits up to a reasonable amount. Be prepared to face the pressure of the ECB if necessary: not on your side. " It ends with a warning: "If you are stupid enough to repeat the mistakes of Ireland, I mereceréis all your going to happen."
In a week in which the word "Spain" has dominated the front pages of Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal even published that the IMF has already prepared contingency plans to rescue the fourth largest economy in the euro-assertion contradicted both by the Government and by the Fund itself, 'the minister Guindos travel to Berlin and the vice president, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, Washington contributed to dispel suspicions that something serious is about to occur. To make matters worse, the possible departure of Greece's euro merely complicate the situation.
But can Europe afford to drop to an economy of the importance of Spanish? "I think the right question is not that, but whether Europe can continue with the uncertainty created by the Spanish banking problems. The most urgent is to find a way to recapitalize institutions. And if there are no funds in the country will have to find out, "replies Sapir.
A similar view is Simon Tilford, chief economist at the think tank (group opinion) London Centre for European Reform. "The ECB should ward off the risk of insolvency, but it is very unlikely to want. Hence the need for a European solution, but based on transfers, not loans, "said Tilford. The Commission also advocates a union based European bank, a deposit guarantee fund common and Eurobonds. But it is not clear that these reforms will come in time to save Spain.
The intervention of a door slamming shut Treasury access to credit markets. The consequences can be devastating for the Spanish economy, which in the last quarter has seen a fearless capital flight record of 97,000 million.
The fall of Spain risks in addition to being just another piece in the domino in the eurozone. The markets would point at once to Italy, and later to France and Belgium. "Some northern Europeans say that if we need another bailout, which is as soon as possible to end this nightmare. They do not realize that so begins another lot worse, "said a Commission official.
Meanwhile, Brussels is demanding to Spain as soon as possible to put the cards on the table. The honeymoon with the government ended the disappointment with a Budget that were postponed for political reasons-and that did not include measures requested by the Commission and the increase in VAT. The distrust has been heightened by the continuous upward revisions of the deficit, which has climbed to 8.9% of GDP, doubts about the accounts of autonomy and the crossfire between the Bank of Spain and the Executive. The future of millions of Spanish is played in the coming days.
欧州委員会は、スペイン政府に、破綻寸前の銀行に欧州救済資金から資本増強のために直接資金注入する救済を要求するように示唆
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