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スペインの銀行の外部監査会社のOliver Wymanによる、貸付の不払いや不動産価格の下落による想定損失額は、最低1800億0000'0000ユーロから最高2700億0000'0000ユーロ
Las consultoras cifran las pérdidas de la banca hasta en 270.000 millones
Oliver Wyman calcula que los bancos pierdan el 100% en créditos para ciertos tipos de suelo
Roland Berger contempla que la morosidad de las hipotecas se dispare
Las diferencias internas de los dos informes son enormes
The consultants that the losses of banks up to 270,000 million
Oliver Wyman estimates that banks lose 100% credit for certain types of soil
Roland Berger provides that mortgage delinquencies skyrocket
Internal differences of the two reports are huge
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 22 JUN 2012 - 01:32 CET
Oliver Wyman estimates that banks lose 100% credit for certain types of soil
Roland Berger provides that mortgage delinquencies skyrocket
Internal differences of the two reports are huge
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 22 JUN 2012 - 01:32 CET
In February 2011, the Director of Regulation of Bank of Spain, José María Roldán, said in a presentation to investors and analysts in London that if the floor was given a zero price in Spain, he bought it all. The detail of the reports of the consultants hired by the Bank of Spain shows that in the adverse scenario, Oliver Wyman has provided a 100% loss of the appropriations for that fund land, that is, has given a zero value. With models that reach that end, the losses calculated by the consultants are as high of 270,000 million (equivalent to over 25% of Spanish GDP) in the worst scenario.
The tests try to estimate potential losses in the credit portfolio (by default) and buildings (falling prices). Then put the mattresses of provisions, capital and profit generation to deal with those losses. In each entity, if the expected loss exceeds the mattress to absorb and maintain high solvency, it requires more capital.
Although the final outcome of the tests is very similar for the two consultants, the differences in how they arrived at that figure are enormous. Thus, the expected loss according to the German Roland Berger are 119,000 (base scenario) to 170,000 million (adverse), while Oliver Wyman of the U.S. range from 170,000 to 190,000 million (base) at about 250,000 to 270,000 million (adverse) . The difference is due in part to Roland Berger does not include losses on bad loans and real estate closing and identified 2011. But also because the U.S. has been more demanding in the calculation of losses in the sector promoter.
The biggest holes exist in the real estate held by banks (loss of 45% to 55% in the baseline scenario and 55% to 65% in the side, according to Oliver Wyman's accounts, as Roland Berger not contemplated by be closed prior to 2011) and in the credits to developers (from 28% to 32% in the baseline scenario and 42% to 48% in the most negative, according to Oliver Wyman). U.S. consulting firm has decided to reclassify as real estate loan up to 10% of credit to construction companies and SMEs, has assumed that 50% of all credit refinancing and promoter are applied over price discounts. The most extreme example of demand are credits that fund non-urban land, where U.S. consultants are expected to losses of 100% in the adverse scenario.
Another big difference is in mortgages for home purchases, as shown by the guts of the exams. Here, Oliver Wyman expects delinquencies remain low and that between that and the value of the securities, the losses are 2% in the baseline scenario and by around 4% in the side, this is a maximum of 22,000 to 25,000 million . But Roland Berger provides twice the losses in that segment, more than 45,000 million in the adverse scenario.
The distances are too great in the calculation of the capacity to absorb losses, the U.S. figure in the adverse scenario between 230,000 and 250,000 million (including mattresses entities need not use it) and the German, by 118,000 million. Neither the number of provisions, or the excess capital or to generate profits approaching in both reports, partly because Roland Berger calculation leaves out the mattresses needed to absorb the losses already identified in 2011.
The assumptions have been defined by a committee headed by Finance. In the baseline scenario, which is considered more likely, it is anticipated that the downturn in the economy extends to 2013, a decrease of 0.3% of GDP, which contrasts with the official government forecast the economy to grow 0.2% next year.
The tests try to estimate potential losses in the credit portfolio (by default) and buildings (falling prices). Then put the mattresses of provisions, capital and profit generation to deal with those losses. In each entity, if the expected loss exceeds the mattress to absorb and maintain high solvency, it requires more capital.
Although the final outcome of the tests is very similar for the two consultants, the differences in how they arrived at that figure are enormous. Thus, the expected loss according to the German Roland Berger are 119,000 (base scenario) to 170,000 million (adverse), while Oliver Wyman of the U.S. range from 170,000 to 190,000 million (base) at about 250,000 to 270,000 million (adverse) . The difference is due in part to Roland Berger does not include losses on bad loans and real estate closing and identified 2011. But also because the U.S. has been more demanding in the calculation of losses in the sector promoter.
The biggest holes exist in the real estate held by banks (loss of 45% to 55% in the baseline scenario and 55% to 65% in the side, according to Oliver Wyman's accounts, as Roland Berger not contemplated by be closed prior to 2011) and in the credits to developers (from 28% to 32% in the baseline scenario and 42% to 48% in the most negative, according to Oliver Wyman). U.S. consulting firm has decided to reclassify as real estate loan up to 10% of credit to construction companies and SMEs, has assumed that 50% of all credit refinancing and promoter are applied over price discounts. The most extreme example of demand are credits that fund non-urban land, where U.S. consultants are expected to losses of 100% in the adverse scenario.
Another big difference is in mortgages for home purchases, as shown by the guts of the exams. Here, Oliver Wyman expects delinquencies remain low and that between that and the value of the securities, the losses are 2% in the baseline scenario and by around 4% in the side, this is a maximum of 22,000 to 25,000 million . But Roland Berger provides twice the losses in that segment, more than 45,000 million in the adverse scenario.
The distances are too great in the calculation of the capacity to absorb losses, the U.S. figure in the adverse scenario between 230,000 and 250,000 million (including mattresses entities need not use it) and the German, by 118,000 million. Neither the number of provisions, or the excess capital or to generate profits approaching in both reports, partly because Roland Berger calculation leaves out the mattresses needed to absorb the losses already identified in 2011.
The assumptions have been defined by a committee headed by Finance. In the baseline scenario, which is considered more likely, it is anticipated that the downturn in the economy extends to 2013, a decrease of 0.3% of GDP, which contrasts with the official government forecast the economy to grow 0.2% next year.
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