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スペインのラホイ(Mariano Rajoy)大統領は、スペインの銀行救済が、公的債務の増大に繋がる国家を通じての銀行再編基金経由でなく、ドイツが反対する欧州金融安定基金からの直接銀行への融資にして貰うように努力奮発??
Rajoy comienza una carrera contrarreloj para evitar el rescate duro
La recuperación de la confianza en España pasa por un plan económico detallado hasta 2014
Los inversores quieren que se aclare si el fondo de rescate tendrá prioridad al cobrar la deuda
La Comisión, el FMI y los expertos piden al Gobierno un calendario con los próximos ajustes
Rajoy begins a race against time to prevent the rescue disk
The recovery of confidence in Spain goes through a detailed economic plan to 2014
Investors want to clarify if the bailout fund will have priority to collect the debt
The Commission, the IMF and the Government experts call a calendar with upcoming adjustments
There is no 'big money' in Spain
Amanda Madrid Mars 24 JUN 2012 - 01:37 CET
The recovery of confidence in Spain goes through a detailed economic plan to 2014
Investors want to clarify if the bailout fund will have priority to collect the debt
The Commission, the IMF and the Government experts call a calendar with upcoming adjustments
There is no 'big money' in Spain
Amanda Madrid Mars 24 JUN 2012 - 01:37 CET
The crux of the economy is simple to explain, you have more financial engineering involved. Spain battle to avoid the so-called soft recovery is negotiating with Europe to save the banks is up becoming a full-scale rescue disk: the state itself. The transmission works well: banks, toxic property loans rotten, need of public relief, the state rescues, are indebted for it, the difficulties are compounded, the already high price of money rises further, the distrust is heightened, the markets are closed, the public piggy bank to pay the maturing letters is depleted and, ultimately, is the country which eventually launch the SOS.
The crisis of the Irish banks and dragged to Dublin to seek a bailout from around the state. Although the differences between this case and Spanish are enormous by the relative magnitude of the aid measure in relation to gross domestic product (GDP). Irish institutions have needed capital injections that have exceeded the 40% of GDP of the island (about 70,000 million). In Spain, fixed external audit of the financial sector needs a maximum of 62,000 million. And even ascend to those 100,000 million that Europe is willing to lend to the government, this money does not represent even 10% of Spanish GDP.
Public debt is bought Spanish banks, and this complicates the financial crisis
The difference between the circle and the loop is that the latter provides an avenue of escape. Madrid and Brussels are busy looking for her, but the viral nature of the financial crisis Spanish has another twist: the leading providers of Spanish public debt are none other than Spanish banks (fed by the European Central Bank). So if one day the state fails to pay part of their debt end up punishing mostly the same bench that helps. "If the Spanish government bails out the banks and banking rescues the Government, the system becomes a voodoo economics," said Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz just one day before Spain requested the rescue of the Eurogroup.
This is the reason that the government of Mariano Rajoy has tried at all times that the European bailout fund to inject money directly to troubled institutions and increasing public debt and the risks incurred by banks. But Berlin is absolutely refuses. Perched Germany, Spain complies, so far, that the loans go to state and from there to the bank.
What can the spread firewall between banking and debt crises? That's the big question of the moment. Part of the solution is in government hands. In recent weeks there is no analyst who does not claim more clarity and strength to the Government's roadmap. "Spain should take the recommendations of the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund and implement them on time [of time] as short as possible, the Government has a comfortable majority in Congress and can do so as soon as possible," said Antonio Garcia Pascual chief analyst for southern Europe at Barclays Capital. So says, can come the strongest support of the ECB and Europe, ie cheaper loans to banks or bond purchases to curb high returns.
Stiglitz: "If the state bails out the banks, and banks to the state, it is voodoo economics."
"Spain should restore credibility, but the problem is that this is recovered with facts, and these require some time now the country has. So while doing homework, in the short term only the help of the European Central Bank and the European Union can buy that time, "says Ignacio Rodriguez, responsible in Spain for M & G Investments, a fixed income manager.
Madrid has launched harder adjustment of democracy. But many analysts complain about the lack of detail of a program that aims to trim a deficit of 8.9% in 2011 to 3% in 2014. "We need concrete measures to carry out fiscal adjustment from 2013 onwards, the income and expenditure composition as well as go beyond the labor reform, reducing the duality," says Pascual.
The IMF questions that Spain meets the deficit targets and called on Rajoy more castor oil: to raise the VAT, lower the salary of staff and eliminate deductions for housing, among other measures. Brussels also requests an increase of consumption tax, as well as accelerate the increase in retirement age, among other measures.
"For the banking rescue work, there must be more EU action," says one analyst
"There is no alternative if we are to the euro: Spain has lost credibility and what to do now is to present a credible plan, reasonable. It has made a financial reform parties, but we must also address changes in public or deepen in labor, "said Xavier Vives, IESE professor and member of the German IFO institute. "The big question with the markets is whether Spain will be able to pay all the money they should be, especially with growth prospects as low" added Vives.
The Spanish net foreign debt (the difference between what lends and borrows from abroad) reaches 95% of GDP, the same level as the battered Greece and surpassed only by Portugal also rescued, according to the IFO.
Besides presenting a credible and detailed plan with a calendar as accurate as possible, quantified measures and backup solutions, the other key point is to avoid close their markets to finance the debt. In this sense, concerned about the possibility that the European credit has a preferential basis to the rest of the existing debt. This means that if Spain fell into default, your current and potential private creditors would charge after the new public lenders.
The conditions are being negotiated now and some investors see it crucial to avoid comprehensive rescue. The rescue of the Spanish banking can be done through the temporary bailout fund (the EFSF), which establishes the recovery order, or permanent mechanism (MEDE), which does set it and could cause a stampede of investors.
"It's a danger, unless the loan officer is a very long term and low-interest," says Daniel Gros of the Brussels think tank CEPS. "A subordinate end further reducing demand for the debt the state still must issue if you want to avoid a complete rescue," agrees Gianluca Ziuglio, Swiss investment bank UBS.
Instead, Garcia Pascual, Barclays, iron removed this: "The private bondholders are better protected with this agreement despite the subordination [technical concept that refers to the recovery order]. If Spain has given a credit of 3% and 30 years, the bondholder is more secure because it improves the solvency of Spain. "
Markets do not have enough bank rescue program, look askance at anything that might occur within six years. Myles Bradshaw, of Pimco, one of the greatest players in the debt market, launches its warning: "To work, this bailout should be accompanied by other policy initiatives at European level to change the expectations of investors and encourage the return of capital to Spain. Without this, it is hard not to see this plan as a precursor to bigger problems. "
The crisis of the Irish banks and dragged to Dublin to seek a bailout from around the state. Although the differences between this case and Spanish are enormous by the relative magnitude of the aid measure in relation to gross domestic product (GDP). Irish institutions have needed capital injections that have exceeded the 40% of GDP of the island (about 70,000 million). In Spain, fixed external audit of the financial sector needs a maximum of 62,000 million. And even ascend to those 100,000 million that Europe is willing to lend to the government, this money does not represent even 10% of Spanish GDP.
Public debt is bought Spanish banks, and this complicates the financial crisis
The difference between the circle and the loop is that the latter provides an avenue of escape. Madrid and Brussels are busy looking for her, but the viral nature of the financial crisis Spanish has another twist: the leading providers of Spanish public debt are none other than Spanish banks (fed by the European Central Bank). So if one day the state fails to pay part of their debt end up punishing mostly the same bench that helps. "If the Spanish government bails out the banks and banking rescues the Government, the system becomes a voodoo economics," said Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz just one day before Spain requested the rescue of the Eurogroup.
This is the reason that the government of Mariano Rajoy has tried at all times that the European bailout fund to inject money directly to troubled institutions and increasing public debt and the risks incurred by banks. But Berlin is absolutely refuses. Perched Germany, Spain complies, so far, that the loans go to state and from there to the bank.
What can the spread firewall between banking and debt crises? That's the big question of the moment. Part of the solution is in government hands. In recent weeks there is no analyst who does not claim more clarity and strength to the Government's roadmap. "Spain should take the recommendations of the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund and implement them on time [of time] as short as possible, the Government has a comfortable majority in Congress and can do so as soon as possible," said Antonio Garcia Pascual chief analyst for southern Europe at Barclays Capital. So says, can come the strongest support of the ECB and Europe, ie cheaper loans to banks or bond purchases to curb high returns.
Stiglitz: "If the state bails out the banks, and banks to the state, it is voodoo economics."
"Spain should restore credibility, but the problem is that this is recovered with facts, and these require some time now the country has. So while doing homework, in the short term only the help of the European Central Bank and the European Union can buy that time, "says Ignacio Rodriguez, responsible in Spain for M & G Investments, a fixed income manager.
Madrid has launched harder adjustment of democracy. But many analysts complain about the lack of detail of a program that aims to trim a deficit of 8.9% in 2011 to 3% in 2014. "We need concrete measures to carry out fiscal adjustment from 2013 onwards, the income and expenditure composition as well as go beyond the labor reform, reducing the duality," says Pascual.
The IMF questions that Spain meets the deficit targets and called on Rajoy more castor oil: to raise the VAT, lower the salary of staff and eliminate deductions for housing, among other measures. Brussels also requests an increase of consumption tax, as well as accelerate the increase in retirement age, among other measures.
"For the banking rescue work, there must be more EU action," says one analyst
"There is no alternative if we are to the euro: Spain has lost credibility and what to do now is to present a credible plan, reasonable. It has made a financial reform parties, but we must also address changes in public or deepen in labor, "said Xavier Vives, IESE professor and member of the German IFO institute. "The big question with the markets is whether Spain will be able to pay all the money they should be, especially with growth prospects as low" added Vives.
The Spanish net foreign debt (the difference between what lends and borrows from abroad) reaches 95% of GDP, the same level as the battered Greece and surpassed only by Portugal also rescued, according to the IFO.
Besides presenting a credible and detailed plan with a calendar as accurate as possible, quantified measures and backup solutions, the other key point is to avoid close their markets to finance the debt. In this sense, concerned about the possibility that the European credit has a preferential basis to the rest of the existing debt. This means that if Spain fell into default, your current and potential private creditors would charge after the new public lenders.
The conditions are being negotiated now and some investors see it crucial to avoid comprehensive rescue. The rescue of the Spanish banking can be done through the temporary bailout fund (the EFSF), which establishes the recovery order, or permanent mechanism (MEDE), which does set it and could cause a stampede of investors.
"It's a danger, unless the loan officer is a very long term and low-interest," says Daniel Gros of the Brussels think tank CEPS. "A subordinate end further reducing demand for the debt the state still must issue if you want to avoid a complete rescue," agrees Gianluca Ziuglio, Swiss investment bank UBS.
Instead, Garcia Pascual, Barclays, iron removed this: "The private bondholders are better protected with this agreement despite the subordination [technical concept that refers to the recovery order]. If Spain has given a credit of 3% and 30 years, the bondholder is more secure because it improves the solvency of Spain. "
Markets do not have enough bank rescue program, look askance at anything that might occur within six years. Myles Bradshaw, of Pimco, one of the greatest players in the debt market, launches its warning: "To work, this bailout should be accompanied by other policy initiatives at European level to change the expectations of investors and encourage the return of capital to Spain. Without this, it is hard not to see this plan as a precursor to bigger problems. "
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