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欧州連合のドイツ主導の独善的な金融危機や、財政赤字削減による緊縮財政の財政危機の対応のまずさや遅れが、欧州のユーロ通貨金融危機を悪化させる
10 días para salvar el euro (o ‘dónde he visto yo esto antes’)
El Eurogrupo lanza hoy una maratón de reuniones con España y Grecia como protagonistas
El inmovilismo de Alemania y la prudencia excesiva está debilitando el proyecto europeo
Claudi Pérez Luxemburgo21 JUN 2012 - 12:38 CET
10 days to save the euro (or 'where have I seen this before')
The Eurogroup has launched a marathon meeting with Spain and Greece as protagonists
The stagnation in Germany and the excessive caution is weakening the European project
Claudi Perez Luxembourg 21 JUN 2012 - 12:38 CET
The Eurogroup has launched a marathon meeting with Spain and Greece as protagonists
The stagnation in Germany and the excessive caution is weakening the European project
Claudi Perez Luxembourg 21 JUN 2012 - 12:38 CET
Critical hours, days critical. Yes, that feeling again as European skirting the precipice of playing with fire, to face the umpteenth defining moment. "Europe will set in the crisis," said one of the founding fathers of the European Union. Well if you were right: it will set in more and more acute crises. The current menu tends to embarrassment: an existential crisis of the euro, a country in the midst of a great depression (Greece), two rescued countries (Ireland and Portugal) with no prospects, and the main course starts now, with Spain and Italy in disparadero, with the euro itself in the spotlight. Europe has made progress in the last two years, but dragging your feet, always with this syndrome as European 'late, little and evil.
This time may no longer worth it with the patches, with the kick forward, Spain needs a bailout of its banking will arrive in the coming days and maybe a full-scale intervention if Germany still refuses point blank to a change in policy, if it persists that mixture of disdain and contempt in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin to the Spanish Government, the Spanish economy and everything to do with the Spain brand. Italy next season of the European crisis, is at the mercy of an overwhelming infection: hunting with the euro as their final target. Kick-off for 10 days in a climate fundamental increasingly tense, with countries divided by the fatigue of the last two years, in which the recipes of leaders, or is true of Germany, have not worked. Lately even mix and constant references to Nazism indisimuladas Berlin's refusal to seek solutions to an extreme, denying that "if the euro fails Europe fails" so often repeated Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Italy, next season's European crisis is at the mercy of uncontrollable contagion
Spain will join in days to the list of countries rescued after the demonstration of the Treasury may continue to issue debt (albeit unknown to stratospheric rates across the euro was in small quantities) and that the consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman show that the hole in the Spanish banking sector is around 75,000 million euros. There will be European aid to the bench, waiting for conditions that are already trading, but without the humiliation of a full-scale intervention, at least for now. Eurogroup and Ecofin will (meetings of finance ministers from the eurozone and EU) rights for Spain and the debate on changing the institutional architecture of the euro area, today and tomorrow. Morning also held a mini-summit between Germany, France, Italy and Spain in Rome. And at the end of next week, the grand finale: Summit of Heads of State and Government in Brussels. This is a sort of hasty guide what can be expected this week, where will the debate, resulting in many more unknowns than certainties and goes from one surprise. An attempt of analysis through this Sargasso Sea in which a crisis has become increasingly difficult to understand and explain. Paralysis, excessive caution is weakening the European project to dangerous extremes. Now, increasingly, the terms of the dilemma is more Europe or none.
SPAIN
Madrid in the next few days ask a bailout for banks, according to advance the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, before the Eurogroup meeting on Thursday, a meeting that was held coinciding with an improvement in the debt markets that can be misleading. The mere announcement of the aid has not worked as balm. For various reasons and lack of clarity in government is not the least of which, with the president and several ministers bent on denying the higher (euphemisms such as "credit line" to deny that "call a spade a spade and wine, wine "Mariano Rajoy promised in election campaign). The final figure will be known presumably rescue today when valuations are known consulting firms contracted by the Government to check the hole size banks. The conditions will be hard for the financial system and for the whole economy: what were the recommendations of the EU has now become demands. The Government will raise the VAT, will be forced to make a biennial budget for 2013 and 2014 and may even have to cut the salaries of officials. Instead, try to negotiate the conditions for banks to be as smooth as possible.
The conditions of redemption are hard for banks and for the whole economy
The help is actually a loan: interest rates are between 3.5% and 4%, and the Government intends that the term is as large as possible to avoid bottlenecks in Treasury financing in order to break it possible the close link between banking problems and sovereign debt crisis. For that reason, Spain is also ticking for investors not to flee. The rescue can be done through the temporary bailout fund (the EFSF) or permanent mechanism (Mede). There is a minor detail: the prevalence of EFSF no charge in case of default of Spain, the Mede himself. Hence in case of choosing the Mede, with the current rules may frighten investors and dispose of the Spanish debt, and thus to close the crack to the markets that still have the Treasury and the government wants preserved under all circumstances.
INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE
There is an additional problem: the speculation about intervention by Spain, a bailout for the entire economy, are in all the corridors in the light of the interest you pay on its debt and Spain because of a risk premium, not to achieve consolidate their improvement today, leaves the country bordering on insolvency. Spain is the last frontier of fear of the EU. If the crisis does not stop in Spain, the next piece is Italy: the two countries account for a quarter of EU GDP, a banking assets of eight billion euros. So the bank bailout is not enough on the table is a set of measures, from the purchase of bonds by the central bank or rescue mechanisms to union bank, fiscal union or political union. These are long-term solutions, but necessary for the whole world starts to believe the mantra that the euro and the EU are irreversible.
The purchase of debt funds is possible since the summer, but no one had asked
The possibilities will be both morning and Ecofin of the mini-summit in Rome and, especially, at the meeting in Brussels next week. In the last hours has gained weight the possibility of bailout funds are those buying European debt markets to lower the pressure, which is possible since last summer but virtually no Ejecutuvo requested until it did in the newly G-20 finish Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, probably the only politician who by his training in economics has a clear idea of what happens at the top, although he has tried all means to distance themselves from Spain without get- . If the ESM, which was ratified on Thursday by two countries after the vote of the parliaments of Germany and Finland, or EFSF announced that shoot in the debt market their ammunition (around half a billion euros), the interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds would fall immediately. Germany, once again, is opposed. Besides, it will not free: it can only be done with strict conditionality (that word which so little like the Spanish Government). "Not much difference between what is now happening to Spain, with the troika permanently in Madrid and at the mercy of the ECB, fiscal policy fully tapped, and what would happen if they applied these stringent conditions," say sources close to the IMF Washington.
Posters ultras party in Athens. / ANDREAS SOLARO (AFP)
GREECE
Origin and terminus of the European crisis, Greece, which also focus today's meeting of the Eurogroup has managed to form a government order and clear and one of the unknowns of the European crisis. Spanish banks is another fundamental question. But Greece never says it all. The European program has been derailed due to lack of government and by the finding that the five years of recession begin to leave serious consequences for the economy of the Mediterranean country. The reports on Greece began to be earthshaking. Lack of money in the health system starts to stop malaria cases in the Peloponnese or an increase of 1,450% of AIDS in the last two years in the absence of essentials such as syringes. More and more people sleeping in the street, bordering on poverty or head has gotten into it. Greece calls for renegotiation of the second rescue to try to soften the recession. Europe, with Berlin at the head, is resisting.
GERMANY. 'Cherchez la FRANCE'
Finally, in a crisis proportion and protein such as this must be stopped knocking on the door of creditors to know what will happen. Germany refuses to euro zone, the purchase of debt by the ECB, the EFSF or the Mede, to any exceptional measures it does not happen to impose drastic cuts and reforms in Southern Europe. Berlin has imposed a shared narrative and opposition Social Conservative government, which oversees the Constitutional Court with a firm hand and has become popular among economists and among citizens.
more informationPressure to make palatable the rescueSpain pays the doubts about its solvency and issues debt to the higher cost in 16 yearsThe external audit visit institutions to refine what you are urged
Increasingly isolated and depressed for the rest of Europe and especially the United States and the G-20, Germany is closed to change: the political establishment considered to be in possession of reason, that the world is wrong that if Europe does homework while looking at the dead end of those not already done so, in a story that leads directly to a great depression if no last-minute swerve. The allusions to Nazism no longer come only from Greece: the analyst says Anatole Kaletsky today in Berlin and Reuters is once again a threat to Europe, economist Wolfgang Münchau considered Alermania is on the verge of mass hysteria similar to what happened in 1933, even a central banker, Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank President) invokes today in the pages of a German newspaper the Nazi rise to power because of a clearly excessive austerity.
But Germany does not react. A European diplomat said that Berlin will not react because of the events in Spain and Italy: only when the tide will come to France. "It is time to seek a common front between France, Italy and Spain, with the Commission on that side, to break theses coming from Berlin and are dangerously close to the EU to a rupture and risk of depression only makes it inconceivable few months, "he says. "Cherchez la France," advises Spain to the breaking point that is heading towards the Union.
This time may no longer worth it with the patches, with the kick forward, Spain needs a bailout of its banking will arrive in the coming days and maybe a full-scale intervention if Germany still refuses point blank to a change in policy, if it persists that mixture of disdain and contempt in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin to the Spanish Government, the Spanish economy and everything to do with the Spain brand. Italy next season of the European crisis, is at the mercy of an overwhelming infection: hunting with the euro as their final target. Kick-off for 10 days in a climate fundamental increasingly tense, with countries divided by the fatigue of the last two years, in which the recipes of leaders, or is true of Germany, have not worked. Lately even mix and constant references to Nazism indisimuladas Berlin's refusal to seek solutions to an extreme, denying that "if the euro fails Europe fails" so often repeated Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Italy, next season's European crisis is at the mercy of uncontrollable contagion
Spain will join in days to the list of countries rescued after the demonstration of the Treasury may continue to issue debt (albeit unknown to stratospheric rates across the euro was in small quantities) and that the consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman show that the hole in the Spanish banking sector is around 75,000 million euros. There will be European aid to the bench, waiting for conditions that are already trading, but without the humiliation of a full-scale intervention, at least for now. Eurogroup and Ecofin will (meetings of finance ministers from the eurozone and EU) rights for Spain and the debate on changing the institutional architecture of the euro area, today and tomorrow. Morning also held a mini-summit between Germany, France, Italy and Spain in Rome. And at the end of next week, the grand finale: Summit of Heads of State and Government in Brussels. This is a sort of hasty guide what can be expected this week, where will the debate, resulting in many more unknowns than certainties and goes from one surprise. An attempt of analysis through this Sargasso Sea in which a crisis has become increasingly difficult to understand and explain. Paralysis, excessive caution is weakening the European project to dangerous extremes. Now, increasingly, the terms of the dilemma is more Europe or none.
SPAIN
Madrid in the next few days ask a bailout for banks, according to advance the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, before the Eurogroup meeting on Thursday, a meeting that was held coinciding with an improvement in the debt markets that can be misleading. The mere announcement of the aid has not worked as balm. For various reasons and lack of clarity in government is not the least of which, with the president and several ministers bent on denying the higher (euphemisms such as "credit line" to deny that "call a spade a spade and wine, wine "Mariano Rajoy promised in election campaign). The final figure will be known presumably rescue today when valuations are known consulting firms contracted by the Government to check the hole size banks. The conditions will be hard for the financial system and for the whole economy: what were the recommendations of the EU has now become demands. The Government will raise the VAT, will be forced to make a biennial budget for 2013 and 2014 and may even have to cut the salaries of officials. Instead, try to negotiate the conditions for banks to be as smooth as possible.
The conditions of redemption are hard for banks and for the whole economy
The help is actually a loan: interest rates are between 3.5% and 4%, and the Government intends that the term is as large as possible to avoid bottlenecks in Treasury financing in order to break it possible the close link between banking problems and sovereign debt crisis. For that reason, Spain is also ticking for investors not to flee. The rescue can be done through the temporary bailout fund (the EFSF) or permanent mechanism (Mede). There is a minor detail: the prevalence of EFSF no charge in case of default of Spain, the Mede himself. Hence in case of choosing the Mede, with the current rules may frighten investors and dispose of the Spanish debt, and thus to close the crack to the markets that still have the Treasury and the government wants preserved under all circumstances.
INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE
There is an additional problem: the speculation about intervention by Spain, a bailout for the entire economy, are in all the corridors in the light of the interest you pay on its debt and Spain because of a risk premium, not to achieve consolidate their improvement today, leaves the country bordering on insolvency. Spain is the last frontier of fear of the EU. If the crisis does not stop in Spain, the next piece is Italy: the two countries account for a quarter of EU GDP, a banking assets of eight billion euros. So the bank bailout is not enough on the table is a set of measures, from the purchase of bonds by the central bank or rescue mechanisms to union bank, fiscal union or political union. These are long-term solutions, but necessary for the whole world starts to believe the mantra that the euro and the EU are irreversible.
The purchase of debt funds is possible since the summer, but no one had asked
The possibilities will be both morning and Ecofin of the mini-summit in Rome and, especially, at the meeting in Brussels next week. In the last hours has gained weight the possibility of bailout funds are those buying European debt markets to lower the pressure, which is possible since last summer but virtually no Ejecutuvo requested until it did in the newly G-20 finish Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, probably the only politician who by his training in economics has a clear idea of what happens at the top, although he has tried all means to distance themselves from Spain without get- . If the ESM, which was ratified on Thursday by two countries after the vote of the parliaments of Germany and Finland, or EFSF announced that shoot in the debt market their ammunition (around half a billion euros), the interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds would fall immediately. Germany, once again, is opposed. Besides, it will not free: it can only be done with strict conditionality (that word which so little like the Spanish Government). "Not much difference between what is now happening to Spain, with the troika permanently in Madrid and at the mercy of the ECB, fiscal policy fully tapped, and what would happen if they applied these stringent conditions," say sources close to the IMF Washington.
Posters ultras party in Athens. / ANDREAS SOLARO (AFP)
GREECE
Origin and terminus of the European crisis, Greece, which also focus today's meeting of the Eurogroup has managed to form a government order and clear and one of the unknowns of the European crisis. Spanish banks is another fundamental question. But Greece never says it all. The European program has been derailed due to lack of government and by the finding that the five years of recession begin to leave serious consequences for the economy of the Mediterranean country. The reports on Greece began to be earthshaking. Lack of money in the health system starts to stop malaria cases in the Peloponnese or an increase of 1,450% of AIDS in the last two years in the absence of essentials such as syringes. More and more people sleeping in the street, bordering on poverty or head has gotten into it. Greece calls for renegotiation of the second rescue to try to soften the recession. Europe, with Berlin at the head, is resisting.
GERMANY. 'Cherchez la FRANCE'
Finally, in a crisis proportion and protein such as this must be stopped knocking on the door of creditors to know what will happen. Germany refuses to euro zone, the purchase of debt by the ECB, the EFSF or the Mede, to any exceptional measures it does not happen to impose drastic cuts and reforms in Southern Europe. Berlin has imposed a shared narrative and opposition Social Conservative government, which oversees the Constitutional Court with a firm hand and has become popular among economists and among citizens.
more informationPressure to make palatable the rescueSpain pays the doubts about its solvency and issues debt to the higher cost in 16 yearsThe external audit visit institutions to refine what you are urged
Increasingly isolated and depressed for the rest of Europe and especially the United States and the G-20, Germany is closed to change: the political establishment considered to be in possession of reason, that the world is wrong that if Europe does homework while looking at the dead end of those not already done so, in a story that leads directly to a great depression if no last-minute swerve. The allusions to Nazism no longer come only from Greece: the analyst says Anatole Kaletsky today in Berlin and Reuters is once again a threat to Europe, economist Wolfgang Münchau considered Alermania is on the verge of mass hysteria similar to what happened in 1933, even a central banker, Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank President) invokes today in the pages of a German newspaper the Nazi rise to power because of a clearly excessive austerity.
But Germany does not react. A European diplomat said that Berlin will not react because of the events in Spain and Italy: only when the tide will come to France. "It is time to seek a common front between France, Italy and Spain, with the Commission on that side, to break theses coming from Berlin and are dangerously close to the EU to a rupture and risk of depression only makes it inconceivable few months, "he says. "Cherchez la France," advises Spain to the breaking point that is heading towards the Union.
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