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スペイン国立銀行は、個人消費の衰退と失業の増加のために2012年4月ー6月の景気(国内総生産)は0'3%後退と報告
El Banco de España advierte de que la recesión se agrava en el segundo trimestre
El organismo avanza que la caída del PIB entre abril y junio superará al 0,3% del inicio de 2012
El mayor deterioro del consumo de las familias y el paro ahondan la crisis
The Bank of Spain warns that the recession is worse in the second quarter
The body moves to the fall in GDP between April and June exceed 0.3% of the beginning of 2012
The further deterioration of household consumption and unemployment deepen the crisis
Alvaro Romero Madrid 27 JUN 2012 - 10:33 CET
The body moves to the fall in GDP between April and June exceed 0.3% of the beginning of 2012
The further deterioration of household consumption and unemployment deepen the crisis
Alvaro Romero Madrid 27 JUN 2012 - 10:33 CET
The recession in the Spanish economy has picked up speed so far in the second quarter. "The latest information indicates that the activity has continued to decline at a faster rate" than in the starting year because of lower consumption and the continuing deterioration of employment, the Bank of Spain warns in its latest economic bulletin, corresponding to June. Thus, the fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in this period would exceed the 0.3% contraction recorded between January and April compared to last quarter of 2011. The contraction was 0.4% year on year.
Agency experts now president Luis Maria Linde justify their warning that data on private consumption, the household confidence and retail sales, which fell at rates in April 2003, are "below the average for the first quarter. " Also accelerated vehicle registrations in May its annual decline to 15.3% while the consumption of large companies prepared by the Agency emphasized its tax year decline in April.
On the supply side, investment is showing signs of weakness, the text continues. Thus, the rate of decline of industrial production increased by nearly four points in April, up 13% yoy. As regards the labor market, "continued the path of intensification of job losses that began in the second half 2011" and that has placed the unemployment rate over 24%, notes the Bank of Spain.
In addition, the bulletin adds, deterioration runs parallel to a "significant increase in risk aversion and high volatility in the markets" at the rise of the debt crisis. Fruit of the worst situation facing the neighboring countries, the main destination of sales of Spanish companies, real exports of goods fell by 0.5% yoy in April, a rate similar to that observed in the entire first quarter.
more informationThe services of private studies warn that the recession worsensThe retail sales recorded the biggest drop since 2003The car sales recorded their worst April with a fall of 22%
We will have to wait until next June 30 to hear the first official trailer for the second quarter GDP, which is published by the National Statistics Institute, although a few days before the Bank of Spain will also provide an indication in its next newsletter.
The evolution of the recession is going to upset the forecasts to a greater decline in activity than expected. Nevertheless, the government expects in the second quarter GDP back again by 0.3%, according to the latest estimates of the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, which in any case are already somewhat outdated by the time that has since that did, in early April, a crisis can be overcome with the passage of weeks. In fact, most private analysts now point to that in the third quarter of 2012 will reach the peak of the current recession, which is the second crossing Spain in just three years.
According to the summary provided by the Foundation of Savings Banks on 18 studies analytical services, the GDP increase rate of decline to register a decline of 0.9% quarterly rate, a figure that rivals the most destructive stage of the Great Recession of 2009.
Despite the crescendo tone of the economic crisis, experts maintain that it will close the year with a GDP decline of 1.7%, in line with what the government estimates, for the first quarter was better than expected, which offset the balance. By 2013, however, there are differences. The latest forecast for the next half year of private services Funcas analysis that is at a negative 0.6%, eight percentage points less than the previous figure. The Executive, however, relies on a recovery of 0.2% despite the macroeconomic picture has supervised the recent stress test banks admitted as most likely scenario down 0.3%.
Agency experts now president Luis Maria Linde justify their warning that data on private consumption, the household confidence and retail sales, which fell at rates in April 2003, are "below the average for the first quarter. " Also accelerated vehicle registrations in May its annual decline to 15.3% while the consumption of large companies prepared by the Agency emphasized its tax year decline in April.
On the supply side, investment is showing signs of weakness, the text continues. Thus, the rate of decline of industrial production increased by nearly four points in April, up 13% yoy. As regards the labor market, "continued the path of intensification of job losses that began in the second half 2011" and that has placed the unemployment rate over 24%, notes the Bank of Spain.
In addition, the bulletin adds, deterioration runs parallel to a "significant increase in risk aversion and high volatility in the markets" at the rise of the debt crisis. Fruit of the worst situation facing the neighboring countries, the main destination of sales of Spanish companies, real exports of goods fell by 0.5% yoy in April, a rate similar to that observed in the entire first quarter.
more informationThe services of private studies warn that the recession worsensThe retail sales recorded the biggest drop since 2003The car sales recorded their worst April with a fall of 22%
We will have to wait until next June 30 to hear the first official trailer for the second quarter GDP, which is published by the National Statistics Institute, although a few days before the Bank of Spain will also provide an indication in its next newsletter.
The evolution of the recession is going to upset the forecasts to a greater decline in activity than expected. Nevertheless, the government expects in the second quarter GDP back again by 0.3%, according to the latest estimates of the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, which in any case are already somewhat outdated by the time that has since that did, in early April, a crisis can be overcome with the passage of weeks. In fact, most private analysts now point to that in the third quarter of 2012 will reach the peak of the current recession, which is the second crossing Spain in just three years.
According to the summary provided by the Foundation of Savings Banks on 18 studies analytical services, the GDP increase rate of decline to register a decline of 0.9% quarterly rate, a figure that rivals the most destructive stage of the Great Recession of 2009.
Despite the crescendo tone of the economic crisis, experts maintain that it will close the year with a GDP decline of 1.7%, in line with what the government estimates, for the first quarter was better than expected, which offset the balance. By 2013, however, there are differences. The latest forecast for the next half year of private services Funcas analysis that is at a negative 0.6%, eight percentage points less than the previous figure. The Executive, however, relies on a recovery of 0.2% despite the macroeconomic picture has supervised the recent stress test banks admitted as most likely scenario down 0.3%.
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