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Claroscuros de un acuerdo positivo
Falta mucho para poder decir que el euro está fuera de peligro, pero se ha salvado el 'match ball'
Claudi Pérez Bruselas29 JUN 2012 - 12:32 CET
Chiaroscuro of a positive agreement
So much to say that the euro is out of danger, but it has saved the 'match ball'
Claudi Perez Brussels 29 JUN 2012 - 12:32 CET
In a tense summit of more than 12 hours, Italy and Spain, with essential endorsement of France, were planted last night, in a tactical move without economic significance but with an enormous strategic significance blocked the pact for growth that should accompany the covenant which establishes the austerity strictly in Europe to deliver the necessary urgent measures to calm the suffocating tension in the markets. The European supercumbre had an ambitious agenda: measures for growth (finally), measures to modify the institutional structure of the euro (finally), but was in danger of forgetting it urgent to avoid another financial accident in Spain or Italy, or even a political crisis in Rome break the political deadlock which had entered Europe by the grace of the succession of German negative regarding possible solutions to very short term.
The agreement is good: there is still much to say that the euro is out of danger, but at least you saved the match ball. Europe needs to gain credibility in the long term: hence the steps today will towards political union, the union and fiscal union bank, representing a loss of sovereignty (which has always resisted Paris). But especially in the short term: hence the German concessions are so important for the tide to drop in the markets.
The general outlines of the agreement are known. The bailout funds (the temporary EFSF, and permanent ESM) may recapitalize banks directly, as requested by Spain. They will also have more flexibility to intervene in the secondary market and get debt risk premiums to relax, as called for Spain. The market's initial reaction was very positive: Europe has a sudden attack needed, somehow recovered the touch that seemed lost in this ongoing dialogue with the markets. Here's a list of strengths and weaknesses of the covenant.
Firepower enough (or not). Experts believe that the minimum conditions to save an accident were three: that the rescue mechanism to buy bonds, that the fund may recapitalize banks directly, and has a banking license. The first two conditions are achieved. The third is not. The permanent rescue mechanism has a firepower of half a billion euros. That may seem like a lot. But markets and cast accounts: the refinancing needs of Spain and Italy in the next two years far exceed that figure. So experts believe it would be better than the European Central Bank entered directly with the bazooka in the debt market, the 500,000 million may seem to markets, if Europe does not staunch the wounds on his credibility, a water pistol. "If you have a bazooka, it is likely that wolves are afraid and do not have to use it, if you have a water pistol you have to shoot," said U.S. Treasury secretary when the U.S. was in the same position. The solution would have been to give a banking license to the rescue mechanism (Mede) so he could go to the window of the ECB and shoot everything you need in a pinch. Germany opposed. As also opposed increasing the size of Mede.
Conditions: the typical compromise agreement in the EU. If a country requests direct recapitalization of banks will be subject to strict conditionality in its financial system. And the same on the tax, although the wording of the agreement there is more diffuse to find the typical community engagement that will allow Germany to sell the macroeconomic conditionality will be strict (and will be well: no one gives away money without conditions, or even the European partners, came to say a few days ago Commissioner Joaquin Almunia). As for the purchase of bonds, which can be carried out in the second hand market or in the primary, where states do auctions, conditionality is also very vague. But there. Germany does not give up on that and the use of EU funds require the signature of a memorandum of understanding. That does not make major concessions Merkel. Analysts result there will be some compliance, but not try to intervene. That's the most logical interpretation. But if it is true that the markets are demanding clarity, the agreement does not shine precisely in that aspect. May deliberately.
Timing (the danger of 'long-term, all dead'). The document presented yesterday morning talking about getting all this by way of urgency. That is, "before the end of 2012." But deadlines are, and the conditions, extremely diffuse. For several reasons. It is unclear whether changes are needed in the treaty of Mede rescue mechanism (although it appears not). It is not clear that the German Government will not have problems today with the approval of the Mede, and in the future to reverse the almost traditional German Constitutional Court, which could lengthen the process. Only seven countries have now approved the treaty of Mede.
The pact also requires that the ECB is already in October the European banking supervisor, which does not seem easy because it requires some transfer of sovereignty that can cause hives. This is a first step towards union bank, and this must be associated with the necessary fiscal union. This is very necessary to rejuvenate the European institutional architecture, whose credibility has gone badly damaged by the mismanagement of the crisis. However, experts believe that the key step in European integration means that the ECB is the banking supervisor can take months or even years. It is a high risk. "The EU may be being overly optimistic about deadlines," the think tank in Brussels Eurointelligence.
Spain. Whenever Spain. It is assumed that the bailout requested by Spain will arrive by the old road: a line of credit to the State, through the bank bailout fund (FROB), which is raised to 10 points Spanish public debt. Once it is approved the new role of Mede to recapitalize banks directly, and it will not. But there are great uncertainties about it. European sources interpret the first stages of the rescue counted as debt, but when you are ready the new mechanism to direct injections will prevent banks from rising government borrowing. It provides clear incentives for the Spanish government to delay the whole process up. On July 9, should be ready by the terms of the loan to Spain, although the European Commission has already predicted that the date could be exceeded. It is quite logical to think that Spain will do everything so well either. The danger is that markets punish the strategy of delay to the need to clarify the situation Bankia and several savings banks. But they could also be punished for the fact that the debt to swell too. Again, it comes to finding technical solutions, that is, if there is political will.
There is additional good news. Clearly, whatever the bailout fund to use Spain to recapitalize their banks, that will not be that the European partners are preferential creditors, which had frightened the skittish markets.
Germany in the mirror. The common front Spain-Italy-France left Germany the possibility to block any agreement or find a way out. The refusal to compromise would have serious consequences not only for Italy (in the form of political crisis and unbearable pressure on the markets) or Spain (at the feet of horses by doubts about its banking and the vicious circle between financial hole and public accounts): the danger was a European failure, one more, which inflamed the eurodesencanto to be brewing in some European capitals, in several parliaments to those who have entered or openly anti-European populist parties, those things. Chancellor Angela Merkel now has the difficult ballot to convince the Bundestag (parliament) for approval of the treaty with a rescue mechanism most comfortable enough to not have to fear from the court in Karlsruhe. And also convince their electorate (and some of the press more conservative or reactionary directly) that what is good for Europe is good for Germany. His mentor, Helmut Kohl, contributed to this narrative at key points for the creation of the euro. Merkel must now play the same role to save the single currency. Not easy. There are politicians who are like mirrors: reflections arise among his fellow citizens. When that happens do not have to remember to Machiavelli, "When fate makes the people no longer trust anyone, happens necessarily ruin."
The big unknown: the recession. Europe took yesterday and today will give a major step forward in the draft long-term euro, with the road to political union central to the credibility of a single currency that no longer served to drive to nowhere. Urgent measures are also very important to avoid a political accident or markets in Italy and Spain, amounting to a quarter of European GDP and banking assets of about eight billion euros. But after all it will do little if the Union continues to slide into recession will be deep at least in the South. The partners have approved a plan of 120,000 million euros, 1% of European GDP, thanks to the French insistence. But that figure may fall short, especially if most of the measures are based on pure financial engineering or relocate existing structural funds.
Analysts like Paul Krugman the Nobel Prize have long been saying that is not the time for the EU to be timid in the stimulus policies: where there is no room to take on more debt should be the EU who take paid, and where there is room (again , Germany) is time to see substantial changes in the light of that austerity alone does not lead anywhere. The first clues as to whether indeed the European agreement represents a change of air will be in a few days in Frankfurt, the ECB is almost forced to stop being idle. The European partners have given powers in the banking system to strike it with a hand: a substantial reduction in interest rates and new measures. If the recession continues, despite all measures, the bank will suffer, and the fiscal position of countries: no pay its debts if it grows. Germany, again, has given encouraging signs, with the possibility of Berlin accept higher inflation. Frankfurt-based ECB should put far from you.
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