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民間団体の研究はヨーロッパの不況が悪化すると警告
Los servicios de estudios privados advierten de que la recesión se agrava
Los expertos rebajan al -0,6% la previsión del PIB para 2013
El pronóstico medio de la tasa de paro se eleva al 25%
El déficit se desvía del objetivo del Gobierno, según los analistas
The services of private studies warn that the recession worsens
Experts stoop to -0.6% GDP forecast for 2013
The median forecast of the unemployment rate rises to 25%
The deficit target deviates from the government, analysts say
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 22 JUN 2012 - 13:32 CET
Experts stoop to -0.6% GDP forecast for 2013
The median forecast of the unemployment rate rises to 25%
The deficit target deviates from the government, analysts say
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 22 JUN 2012 - 13:32 CET
GDP and employment were better than expected in the first quarter, even when economic activity fell 0.3% and the unemployment rate exceeded 24%. So far the good news of the new panel estimates of the main services of private study. For everything else, you have to do with the forecast near future, even the present, is changed for the worse. The recession that the Spanish economy is immersed since the end of last year worse, unemployment will climb another step and derail the deficit targets.
"Despite the better than expected result in the first quarter, the consensus forecast for 2012 remains at -1.7%, 'cause the quarterly profile has worsened scheduled for the second half of the year for the expected fall of most intense activity on the front panel. " The synthesis which makes the Foundation of Savings Banks (Func) of the prediction of 18 testing services is now at the third quarter the height of the second recession in three years, down (-0.9% year on quarterly ) of GDP that rivals the most destructive stage of the Great Recession of 2009.
The deterioration of the activity will be stronger in the third quarter of this year
As referred in the previous panel, two months ago, the recession, at least in technical terms, does not extend to 2013, for which no negative quarterly rates are forecast. But the greatest economic weakness that experts now predict itself is felt very noticeable in the comparison year: quarterly growth will be very low and will not serve to offset the cumulative decline in 2012. In short, the average forecast for 2013 suffered a tumble and is in the -0.6%, eight points less than the last time you put together the analysis of research services.
The contrast with official estimates (the Government, the Bank of Spain, but also the IMF), have not been changed in the last two months, is already significant. With a small mouth, the Executive Rajoy still clings to the forecast sent to Brussels, which promised a minimum advance of 0.2%. The reality is that it handles worse forecasts, as reflected in the fact that the baseline scenario that has arisen in the assessment of Spanish banks, is made from a decline in GDP of 0.3% in 2013.
The deficit will be around 6% this year and 4% next, according to private analysts
Among the 18 research services is still a great disparity. Among the most optimistic, the BBVA studies service, yet for next year predicts growth of 0.6%. Among the most pessimistic, Intermoney and Cemex, bringing the decline of GDP in 2013 to -2.1%.
The deterioration in economic activity that draws the new panel of experts extends to all variables. Most significant is the increase in job losses and unemployment rate. Here also weighs the drag effect of closing quarter of 2011 and the first of 2012, "with losses of more intense jobs since the recession of the first half of 2009." The unemployment rate, according to new predictions, set a new record in 2013, up from 25%. And job losses (-3.5% this year, -1.7% next) is inconsistent with the labor market recovery that the Government forecasts for the second half of 2013.
The recession also affects the deficit targets. In most analyzes, the experts based on the idea that the Government will do everything possible to reduce the deficit to 5.3% this year and 3% next. Also that, despite everything, there will be detours, which ever is greater. Not only because the starting point (-8.9% in 2011) moves away-in their first estimates, the government fixed the budget gap at 8% - but because, step by step, the economic downturn becomes increasingly difficult tax collection conforms to plan.
On average, research services believe that the deficit this year will be around 5.9% of GDP (against 5.3% forecast) and 3.8% in 2013 (the goal is still 3%). The pessimists, however, believe that it will take until 2013 to achieve the goal of this year.
"Despite the better than expected result in the first quarter, the consensus forecast for 2012 remains at -1.7%, 'cause the quarterly profile has worsened scheduled for the second half of the year for the expected fall of most intense activity on the front panel. " The synthesis which makes the Foundation of Savings Banks (Func) of the prediction of 18 testing services is now at the third quarter the height of the second recession in three years, down (-0.9% year on quarterly ) of GDP that rivals the most destructive stage of the Great Recession of 2009.
The deterioration of the activity will be stronger in the third quarter of this year
As referred in the previous panel, two months ago, the recession, at least in technical terms, does not extend to 2013, for which no negative quarterly rates are forecast. But the greatest economic weakness that experts now predict itself is felt very noticeable in the comparison year: quarterly growth will be very low and will not serve to offset the cumulative decline in 2012. In short, the average forecast for 2013 suffered a tumble and is in the -0.6%, eight points less than the last time you put together the analysis of research services.
The contrast with official estimates (the Government, the Bank of Spain, but also the IMF), have not been changed in the last two months, is already significant. With a small mouth, the Executive Rajoy still clings to the forecast sent to Brussels, which promised a minimum advance of 0.2%. The reality is that it handles worse forecasts, as reflected in the fact that the baseline scenario that has arisen in the assessment of Spanish banks, is made from a decline in GDP of 0.3% in 2013.
The deficit will be around 6% this year and 4% next, according to private analysts
Among the 18 research services is still a great disparity. Among the most optimistic, the BBVA studies service, yet for next year predicts growth of 0.6%. Among the most pessimistic, Intermoney and Cemex, bringing the decline of GDP in 2013 to -2.1%.
The deterioration in economic activity that draws the new panel of experts extends to all variables. Most significant is the increase in job losses and unemployment rate. Here also weighs the drag effect of closing quarter of 2011 and the first of 2012, "with losses of more intense jobs since the recession of the first half of 2009." The unemployment rate, according to new predictions, set a new record in 2013, up from 25%. And job losses (-3.5% this year, -1.7% next) is inconsistent with the labor market recovery that the Government forecasts for the second half of 2013.
The recession also affects the deficit targets. In most analyzes, the experts based on the idea that the Government will do everything possible to reduce the deficit to 5.3% this year and 3% next. Also that, despite everything, there will be detours, which ever is greater. Not only because the starting point (-8.9% in 2011) moves away-in their first estimates, the government fixed the budget gap at 8% - but because, step by step, the economic downturn becomes increasingly difficult tax collection conforms to plan.
On average, research services believe that the deficit this year will be around 5.9% of GDP (against 5.3% forecast) and 3.8% in 2013 (the goal is still 3%). The pessimists, however, believe that it will take until 2013 to achieve the goal of this year.
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