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スペインの不良債権の銀行は、資本増強のための資金注入には、最低600億0000'0000ユーロの融資が必要(たぶん最高1800億0000'0000位にはなるのではなかろうか??)
La banca española necesita de 51.000 a 62.000 millones de capital
Santander, BBVA y Caixabank no requerirán más capital
Bankia, Novacaixagalicia y Catalunya Caixa tienen las mayores necesidades
Oliver Wyman y Roland Berger publican sus informes sobre el sector financiero
Las necesidades definitivas no se conocerán hasta septiembre
Spanish banks need 51,000 to 62,000 million capital
Santander, BBVA and will not require more capital Caixabank
Bankia, Caixa Catalunya Novacaixagalicia and have the greatest needs
Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger published his reports on the financial sector
The final requirements will not be known until September
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 21 JUN 2012 - 17:55 CET
Santander, BBVA and will not require more capital Caixabank
Bankia, Caixa Catalunya Novacaixagalicia and have the greatest needs
Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger published his reports on the financial sector
The final requirements will not be known until September
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 21 JUN 2012 - 17:55 CET
Spanish banks need 51,000 to 62,000 million of capital to be prepared to deal with a worsening credit crisis. That is the opinion of reports prepared by consultants Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger on behalf of the Bank of Spain and the Ministry of Economy, have revealed the Secretary of State for Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, and Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, Fernando Restoy, at a hearing began at 17.30 hours. This figure serves as a reference for the formal application of the European rescue.
There have been two estimates. The report by Oliver Wyman, a range that goes from 51,000 to 62,000 million euros in the most adverse. The report by Roland Berger, of 51,800 million. In any case, that number will not all necessarily of public capital, as some entities may obtain capital from private sources, which would lessen the amount to be financed by public money. Economics also notes that "these figures are conservative because they do not take into consideration mitigating effects as future actions that may be taken by banks and fiscal elements."
Most needs, however, is concentrated in the nationalized entities or being pregnant (Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, Novacaixagalicia and Banco de Valencia), which will have to resort to European money. The Bank Restructuring Fund (FROB) today announced suspending the auction up of Catalunya Caixa and Banco de Valencia, as expected.
more informationGuindos states that made the formal request for redemption in the coming daysWhat is the recovery?The IMF anticipates the report which brought about the bank bailout in SpainThe 'black spots' in the financial sector
Jimenez Latorre has indicated that it handles the possibility of creating a bad bank to proceed with the reorganization, as they have detected, in contacts with the European authorities, that this is a solution they like, but there is no decision about . Jimenez Latorre not think there liquidation of entities because that would be the most expensive.
In a base scenario, if not too much aggravation of the crisis, but it complies with the current economic forecasts, capital needs are 16,000 to 25,000 million, as estimated by Oliver Wyman. Roland Berger estimates that the needs would be 25,600 million. Bankia has already applied alone 19,000 million, although that number is expected to cover not only losses in the loan portfolio but also making market value of investments and the consolidation of tax credits and which should enable the entity be prepared for the more adverse scenario.
It is curious that this scenario or predictable basis supported by Economics, sees a decline in GDP of 0.3% in 2013, compared to the expected growth so far this year ran the government.
The independent expert reports are required by the EU for a country to apply for a European bailout to clean up its financial sector, as the Spanish government announced it would do to their partners of the euro on June 9. The formal request was pending bailout figures released today, and Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, said today that it will be formalized in the coming days. The Spanish government initially amounted to ask for help in a maximum of 100,000 million euros, leaving a cushion with respect to the estimation of the consultants.
Parsed entities are 14, representing about 90% of banking assets in Spain. The reviews have examined the balance sheets of Banco Santander, BBVA, Caixabank (including Civic Banking), BFA-Bankia, Caixa Catalunya, Novacaixagalicia, Banco Sabadell, Banco Popular, Unicaja (including Caja Duero Spain), Kutxa Bank, Banco Mare Nostrum (BMN), Ibercaja-Box3-Liberbank, Bankinter and Banco de Valencia. But the test is now giving an aggregate, not individual numbers. In any case, the three major entities (Santander, BBVA and Caixabank) does not need more capital even in the most adverse scenario, as explained Jiménez Latorre.
The assessment of capital needs is done in two stages, of which today has closed the first, which is an analysis of the strength of strong institutions to further deterioration in economic conditions, what is known as evidence resistance or stress test. The second phase will focus on internal systems for classifying entities, provision and measure the risks of their portfolios. Both exercises are interrelated and are conducted under the coordination of the Bank of Spain.
When including "economic scenario that no analyst, no matter how gloomy it is, could subscribe"
The end of the first test to the bench
Oliver Wyman consultants Roland Berger and have conducted the first test with the task of identifying the needs of capital would experience the system from two types of scenarios: a baseline scenario, reflecting the situation of today would be more likely, and a scenario where we assume a stressed economic environment and a fall in prices of real estate assets significantly worse "in order to calibrate the system's resistance to extreme hypothetical negative developments," explained Economy.
The exercise is supervised by an advisory committee or supervisor chaired by the Secretary of State for Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, in which the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, the newly appointed Fernando Restoy, serving as vice president. Em committee includes representatives of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, the European Commission, the European Banking Authority and the central banks of France and Holland.
Adverse scenarios that are taken as reference are in line with those used by the IMF in the endurance test conducted under the Sector Assessment Program (FSAP, for its acronym in English) and consist of three additional years of recession (2012, 2013 and 2014), "an economic scenario that no analyst, no matter how gloomy it is, could sign", as noted Restoy. Solvency slats are set at 9% of the highest quality capital relative to risk weighted assets and 6% for the scenario stressed.
The second scenario is one that serves as a reference for setting capital requirements and amounts to a fall in activity of 6.5%. It provides a drop in house prices of 26.4%, leading to a drop of 50% to 60% from peak. For land and sites, the fall seen from the peak of the bubble would be 80% to 90%, as explained Restoy, who emphasized the great hardness of the scenario contemplated, who also foresees a rise in unemployment to 27, 2% in 2014 and a fall of 51.3% of the stock market this year.
The first exercise has been to measure the impact of a hypothetical deterioration of economic conditions on the entire loan portfolio of entities, that is, not only of the property portfolio, but also loans to companies and individuals. The information is based on the financial statements and regulatory bodies sent by the Bank of Spain, and any other available on the credit portfolios of the entities, their segmentation and quality, but the consultants have also had meetings with the executives of entities to provide more information. The working methodology used models, estimates and assumptions of their own consultants, who have done their work, unrelated, and have received two million euros for his work, has revealed Restoy, after the Secretary of State for Economic decline to answer the question claiming that he had that information.
The second review is underway
Depending on the capacity of institutions, Spain will go to Europe to seek help for each entity
In parallel, work has begun the second stage of the valuation exercise, which is longer. These works are being carried out four major auditing firms (Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young and KPMG), which are distributed among the 14 banking groups, but none of them may review audited entities have in recent years.
This second exercise involves conducting a detailed individual analysis and loan portfolios of these institutions, which will be assessed, inter alia, the classification and levels of provision of their loan portfolios. The results of this work should be available on 31 of these audit work julio.El be used to build a broader exercise and detailed (bottom-up or bottom-up) of bank balance sheets. This analysis is expected to be completed in September.
"The work of audit firms and more detailed information about the risks in the portfolios of banks will be the basis for a new round of stress tests that will identify the capital needs of each of the entities. The result of this individualized assessment will be published in mid-September, "says Economy.
Thus, the Bank of Spain will analyze the information available through these efforts and will check and shall, where applicable, the appropriate capital requirements and provisions to entities that require it. Following that announcement, banks should submit their detailed recapitalization plans at short notice. Entities can not bear them alone FROB can access the required conditionality.
Depending on whether or not the entities have the ability to get money from private sources or need public money, Spain will go to Europe to seek help for each entity, to be channeled through the Bank Restructuring Fund (FROB). The adoption of the European rescue is subject to strict conditions for the entity (layoffs, asset sales, salary reductions, restructuring) will also have a strong conditionality for the entire financial sector (with the demand for reforms in the supervision, new regulatory model change of the boxes, among other things) and also Spain will be obliged to comply with the recommendations of the European Commission on economic policy under the excessive deficit procedures. That would involve, for example, that Spain will be obliged to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) to get the ransom.
The conditions for the financial sector, banks fear that limits are imposed not only to those who need help, but also healthy ones, such as a maximum ratio of credits in terms of deposits, as has happened in other countries rescued as Portugal.
There have been two estimates. The report by Oliver Wyman, a range that goes from 51,000 to 62,000 million euros in the most adverse. The report by Roland Berger, of 51,800 million. In any case, that number will not all necessarily of public capital, as some entities may obtain capital from private sources, which would lessen the amount to be financed by public money. Economics also notes that "these figures are conservative because they do not take into consideration mitigating effects as future actions that may be taken by banks and fiscal elements."
Most needs, however, is concentrated in the nationalized entities or being pregnant (Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, Novacaixagalicia and Banco de Valencia), which will have to resort to European money. The Bank Restructuring Fund (FROB) today announced suspending the auction up of Catalunya Caixa and Banco de Valencia, as expected.
more informationGuindos states that made the formal request for redemption in the coming daysWhat is the recovery?The IMF anticipates the report which brought about the bank bailout in SpainThe 'black spots' in the financial sector
Jimenez Latorre has indicated that it handles the possibility of creating a bad bank to proceed with the reorganization, as they have detected, in contacts with the European authorities, that this is a solution they like, but there is no decision about . Jimenez Latorre not think there liquidation of entities because that would be the most expensive.
In a base scenario, if not too much aggravation of the crisis, but it complies with the current economic forecasts, capital needs are 16,000 to 25,000 million, as estimated by Oliver Wyman. Roland Berger estimates that the needs would be 25,600 million. Bankia has already applied alone 19,000 million, although that number is expected to cover not only losses in the loan portfolio but also making market value of investments and the consolidation of tax credits and which should enable the entity be prepared for the more adverse scenario.
It is curious that this scenario or predictable basis supported by Economics, sees a decline in GDP of 0.3% in 2013, compared to the expected growth so far this year ran the government.
The independent expert reports are required by the EU for a country to apply for a European bailout to clean up its financial sector, as the Spanish government announced it would do to their partners of the euro on June 9. The formal request was pending bailout figures released today, and Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, said today that it will be formalized in the coming days. The Spanish government initially amounted to ask for help in a maximum of 100,000 million euros, leaving a cushion with respect to the estimation of the consultants.
Parsed entities are 14, representing about 90% of banking assets in Spain. The reviews have examined the balance sheets of Banco Santander, BBVA, Caixabank (including Civic Banking), BFA-Bankia, Caixa Catalunya, Novacaixagalicia, Banco Sabadell, Banco Popular, Unicaja (including Caja Duero Spain), Kutxa Bank, Banco Mare Nostrum (BMN), Ibercaja-Box3-Liberbank, Bankinter and Banco de Valencia. But the test is now giving an aggregate, not individual numbers. In any case, the three major entities (Santander, BBVA and Caixabank) does not need more capital even in the most adverse scenario, as explained Jiménez Latorre.
The assessment of capital needs is done in two stages, of which today has closed the first, which is an analysis of the strength of strong institutions to further deterioration in economic conditions, what is known as evidence resistance or stress test. The second phase will focus on internal systems for classifying entities, provision and measure the risks of their portfolios. Both exercises are interrelated and are conducted under the coordination of the Bank of Spain.
When including "economic scenario that no analyst, no matter how gloomy it is, could subscribe"
The end of the first test to the bench
Oliver Wyman consultants Roland Berger and have conducted the first test with the task of identifying the needs of capital would experience the system from two types of scenarios: a baseline scenario, reflecting the situation of today would be more likely, and a scenario where we assume a stressed economic environment and a fall in prices of real estate assets significantly worse "in order to calibrate the system's resistance to extreme hypothetical negative developments," explained Economy.
The exercise is supervised by an advisory committee or supervisor chaired by the Secretary of State for Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, in which the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, the newly appointed Fernando Restoy, serving as vice president. Em committee includes representatives of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, the European Commission, the European Banking Authority and the central banks of France and Holland.
Adverse scenarios that are taken as reference are in line with those used by the IMF in the endurance test conducted under the Sector Assessment Program (FSAP, for its acronym in English) and consist of three additional years of recession (2012, 2013 and 2014), "an economic scenario that no analyst, no matter how gloomy it is, could sign", as noted Restoy. Solvency slats are set at 9% of the highest quality capital relative to risk weighted assets and 6% for the scenario stressed.
The second scenario is one that serves as a reference for setting capital requirements and amounts to a fall in activity of 6.5%. It provides a drop in house prices of 26.4%, leading to a drop of 50% to 60% from peak. For land and sites, the fall seen from the peak of the bubble would be 80% to 90%, as explained Restoy, who emphasized the great hardness of the scenario contemplated, who also foresees a rise in unemployment to 27, 2% in 2014 and a fall of 51.3% of the stock market this year.
The first exercise has been to measure the impact of a hypothetical deterioration of economic conditions on the entire loan portfolio of entities, that is, not only of the property portfolio, but also loans to companies and individuals. The information is based on the financial statements and regulatory bodies sent by the Bank of Spain, and any other available on the credit portfolios of the entities, their segmentation and quality, but the consultants have also had meetings with the executives of entities to provide more information. The working methodology used models, estimates and assumptions of their own consultants, who have done their work, unrelated, and have received two million euros for his work, has revealed Restoy, after the Secretary of State for Economic decline to answer the question claiming that he had that information.
The second review is underway
Depending on the capacity of institutions, Spain will go to Europe to seek help for each entity
In parallel, work has begun the second stage of the valuation exercise, which is longer. These works are being carried out four major auditing firms (Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young and KPMG), which are distributed among the 14 banking groups, but none of them may review audited entities have in recent years.
This second exercise involves conducting a detailed individual analysis and loan portfolios of these institutions, which will be assessed, inter alia, the classification and levels of provision of their loan portfolios. The results of this work should be available on 31 of these audit work julio.El be used to build a broader exercise and detailed (bottom-up or bottom-up) of bank balance sheets. This analysis is expected to be completed in September.
"The work of audit firms and more detailed information about the risks in the portfolios of banks will be the basis for a new round of stress tests that will identify the capital needs of each of the entities. The result of this individualized assessment will be published in mid-September, "says Economy.
Thus, the Bank of Spain will analyze the information available through these efforts and will check and shall, where applicable, the appropriate capital requirements and provisions to entities that require it. Following that announcement, banks should submit their detailed recapitalization plans at short notice. Entities can not bear them alone FROB can access the required conditionality.
Depending on whether or not the entities have the ability to get money from private sources or need public money, Spain will go to Europe to seek help for each entity, to be channeled through the Bank Restructuring Fund (FROB). The adoption of the European rescue is subject to strict conditions for the entity (layoffs, asset sales, salary reductions, restructuring) will also have a strong conditionality for the entire financial sector (with the demand for reforms in the supervision, new regulatory model change of the boxes, among other things) and also Spain will be obliged to comply with the recommendations of the European Commission on economic policy under the excessive deficit procedures. That would involve, for example, that Spain will be obliged to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) to get the ransom.
The conditions for the financial sector, banks fear that limits are imposed not only to those who need help, but also healthy ones, such as a maximum ratio of credits in terms of deposits, as has happened in other countries rescued as Portugal.
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