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スペインの2012年の財政予算は、財政赤字削減だけでなく、他の経済回復政策も必要
Presupuesto depresivo
El ajuste en 2012 es una obligación inmediata, pero es necesaria una estrategia de reactivación
budget depressive
The adjustment in 2012 is an immediate obligation, but requires a recovery strategy
The Country 4 ABR 2012 - 00:02 CET
The adjustment in 2012 is an immediate obligation, but requires a recovery strategy
The Country 4 ABR 2012 - 00:02 CET
Almost all details of the State Budget for 2012 known yesterday confirmed the Government will focus its policy solely on the fulfillment of the deficit target set by Europe (5.3% of GDP) and forget, perhaps only incidentally, any attempt to revive the economy. The budget starkly portrayed, without qualification, the situation of public economy, after years of prosperity, has been losing room to maneuver gradually since 2009 and is now in a situation of poverty. The profiles are merciless portrait: the funding of research falls 34%, investment in infrastructure falls to half that amount in 2010, the social sectors collapse (money for employment policies is reduced by 21%) or simply are declared endangered, such as trimming the game against gender violence and scholarships, suffering a cut over 160 million.
The budget is depressed and reflects with some accuracy the situation of distress that is installed in the Spanish economy. It also confirms that governments tend to cut without much finesse, either because they know that is because they can cut costs without going to the package. Social policies, investment in culture, part of aid to education are seriously affected this year. Disappear, more regionalized investment commitments under the statutes of autonomy. But these public accounts raised immediate concerns. The first is practical. With careful, it seems unlikely that this budget can reduce the deficit by three points of GDP (except creative accounting). Despite the congratulations Europeans, who sound more like a cheer that calculations founded, the message expressed in the budget adjustment decisively lost by the absence of a credible increase taxes (VAT) and a recession that will last at least the next five quarters.
The Prime Minister has proposed budget cuts in terms of an ultimatum: "The setting is the only way to avoid intervention." If you fear Rajoy is an intervention that have suffered as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, should be noted that, given the complex situation of the global economy and financial markets, fiscal austerity is not enough to prevent it. The line between the austerity policy of intervention is called the capacity for economic growth. The detailed budget yesterday logic responds to a concern for compliance with the deficit target, but involves a further contraction in GDP of three tenths. That is, instead of the contraction in GDP of 1.7% provided official probably will reach 2% this year.
The experience of this crisis shows that financial markets, even reassured by the flood of liquidity that expires in 2015, require input budgetary stability, but are quick to argue that the inability to grow prevents the recovery of debts. Whereupon the medicine passes become a cause of the disease. Hence it needs to clear the sooner the essential question about the current economic policy: does the government have a strategy for recovery of economic activity and employment? If a 3-point adjustment in 2012 is difficult to achieve and painfully in the recession deepens, the extra will be launched in Budget 2013, to lower the deficit to 3%, extend across the desert. That is: the politics of adjustment is an immediate obligation, but the economic recovery, even if it means higher taxes, is essential.
The budget is depressed and reflects with some accuracy the situation of distress that is installed in the Spanish economy. It also confirms that governments tend to cut without much finesse, either because they know that is because they can cut costs without going to the package. Social policies, investment in culture, part of aid to education are seriously affected this year. Disappear, more regionalized investment commitments under the statutes of autonomy. But these public accounts raised immediate concerns. The first is practical. With careful, it seems unlikely that this budget can reduce the deficit by three points of GDP (except creative accounting). Despite the congratulations Europeans, who sound more like a cheer that calculations founded, the message expressed in the budget adjustment decisively lost by the absence of a credible increase taxes (VAT) and a recession that will last at least the next five quarters.
The Prime Minister has proposed budget cuts in terms of an ultimatum: "The setting is the only way to avoid intervention." If you fear Rajoy is an intervention that have suffered as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, should be noted that, given the complex situation of the global economy and financial markets, fiscal austerity is not enough to prevent it. The line between the austerity policy of intervention is called the capacity for economic growth. The detailed budget yesterday logic responds to a concern for compliance with the deficit target, but involves a further contraction in GDP of three tenths. That is, instead of the contraction in GDP of 1.7% provided official probably will reach 2% this year.
The experience of this crisis shows that financial markets, even reassured by the flood of liquidity that expires in 2015, require input budgetary stability, but are quick to argue that the inability to grow prevents the recovery of debts. Whereupon the medicine passes become a cause of the disease. Hence it needs to clear the sooner the essential question about the current economic policy: does the government have a strategy for recovery of economic activity and employment? If a 3-point adjustment in 2012 is difficult to achieve and painfully in the recession deepens, the extra will be launched in Budget 2013, to lower the deficit to 3%, extend across the desert. That is: the politics of adjustment is an immediate obligation, but the economic recovery, even if it means higher taxes, is essential.
スペインの2012年の財政予算は、財政赤字削減だけでなく、他の経済回復政策も必要
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