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スペイン政府のBANKIA銀行の公的資金注入で、公的負債の増大で、スペイン政府が破産(破綻)するのは近いか?
Vuelve el fantasma del rescate europeo
La masiva inyección en Bankia eleva la presión sobre el Gobierno español
Again the specter of European rescue
The massive injection Bankia raises the pressure on the Spanish Government
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 25 MAY 2012 - 22:02 CET
The massive injection Bankia raises the pressure on the Spanish Government
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 25 MAY 2012 - 22:02 CET
"Spain has no interest or intention, as of today, to go to a rescue European Spanish banks", defended on Wednesday the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, after assert in the same message to the leaders of the EU. But the changing needs of public assistance have become spraying Bankia forecasts. And to give arguments to the experts who insist that Spain is forced to ask for help from Europe to recapitalize its banks.
That the capital needs of Spanish banks is going to be noticeable and obvious. Only BFA-Bankia, with nearly 10% of the Spanish financial system requires at least 19,000 million. It is also a foretaste of what will happen to the industry in less than a month, when two external evaluators published a comprehensive analysis of the entire loan portfolio of Spanish banks, and not only on the assets associated with the brick, the primary objective of provisions mandated by the Ministry of Economy and the Bank of Spain.
Part of the new capital requirements that emerged on Friday that derive Bankia should expand coverage (ie, reserve money) to deal with potential losses from defaults on mortgages and business loans, given the intensity of the recession. It is an exercise similar to that external evaluators will be examining the whole bench. It is also an exercise that week have been doing research services and analysis centers abroad.
The Institute of International Finance, the organization representing the large international banks, said this week that Spanish banks could be forced to cover up to 260,000 million euros in potential losses. Following government reforms, the sector will require about 190,000 million in provisions, which would be entirely inadequate.
Account is opened and will surface in the external audit in a month
Some entities, and here all the experts place to Santander and BBVA, the two-sector may increase again the level of provisions in charge of the profits or asset sales. But the rest will have to pull their capital cushion, which in many cases would place them below the legal minimum. According to the accounts of the Institute of International Finance, would require between 50,000 and 60,000 million euros of capital. And taken for granted, that the vast majority should be public.
For the final number of additional injection of public money have to wait for the review of the external evaluators. But not only that Bankia and open the account with 19,000 million. Is that international analysts have forged a consensus in the market on which capital requirements are high. And Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, opened the open bar to ensure that the Government would support all the money necessary to Bankia, unconditional support you expect the other entities in trouble.
The question is whether the Government is able to take an injection of several tens of billions. The possibility that either the bank itself that addresses the cost of the rescue through the Deposit Guarantee Fund, decline in parallel with the increased demand for supplies. The Restructuring Fund State Bank of nature, has liquidity or authorization to issue debt for about 14,000 million, enough to meet even the needs of Bankia.
The question is whether the Executive can tackle alone the aid to
The most obvious way is that the state get the money through new debt issues. Here the problem would be the cost of market pressure has been placed and the interest rate on the benchmark ten-year Treasury at 6.5%. Before these new injections into banks, the government predicted that public debt would be around 80% of GDP at year end. Another jump of tens of thousands of dollars in borrowing this year would be possible, but would bring the public debt to 90% of GDP, a level that would penalize investors.
Is that scenario, the possibility that the Treasury has to pay more than 9% by placing their bonds, as happened in Ireland-, precipitating speculation about the request for assistance to European rescue fund. Since last July, the EU allows some sort of partial redemption, limited to banking. But the strength of the government to borrow money from the EU and the IMF for financial institutions is more than justified: there is no guarantee that what the EU interpreted as partial redemption will not become, by the grace of the market pressure in total surrender. Something that, as has happened with Portugal, Greece and Ireland, close the tap international private financing for years and would require to take a tough economic conditions program in exchange for EU support. Whenever the EU it could afford.
That the capital needs of Spanish banks is going to be noticeable and obvious. Only BFA-Bankia, with nearly 10% of the Spanish financial system requires at least 19,000 million. It is also a foretaste of what will happen to the industry in less than a month, when two external evaluators published a comprehensive analysis of the entire loan portfolio of Spanish banks, and not only on the assets associated with the brick, the primary objective of provisions mandated by the Ministry of Economy and the Bank of Spain.
Part of the new capital requirements that emerged on Friday that derive Bankia should expand coverage (ie, reserve money) to deal with potential losses from defaults on mortgages and business loans, given the intensity of the recession. It is an exercise similar to that external evaluators will be examining the whole bench. It is also an exercise that week have been doing research services and analysis centers abroad.
The Institute of International Finance, the organization representing the large international banks, said this week that Spanish banks could be forced to cover up to 260,000 million euros in potential losses. Following government reforms, the sector will require about 190,000 million in provisions, which would be entirely inadequate.
Account is opened and will surface in the external audit in a month
Some entities, and here all the experts place to Santander and BBVA, the two-sector may increase again the level of provisions in charge of the profits or asset sales. But the rest will have to pull their capital cushion, which in many cases would place them below the legal minimum. According to the accounts of the Institute of International Finance, would require between 50,000 and 60,000 million euros of capital. And taken for granted, that the vast majority should be public.
For the final number of additional injection of public money have to wait for the review of the external evaluators. But not only that Bankia and open the account with 19,000 million. Is that international analysts have forged a consensus in the market on which capital requirements are high. And Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, opened the open bar to ensure that the Government would support all the money necessary to Bankia, unconditional support you expect the other entities in trouble.
The question is whether the Government is able to take an injection of several tens of billions. The possibility that either the bank itself that addresses the cost of the rescue through the Deposit Guarantee Fund, decline in parallel with the increased demand for supplies. The Restructuring Fund State Bank of nature, has liquidity or authorization to issue debt for about 14,000 million, enough to meet even the needs of Bankia.
The question is whether the Executive can tackle alone the aid to
The most obvious way is that the state get the money through new debt issues. Here the problem would be the cost of market pressure has been placed and the interest rate on the benchmark ten-year Treasury at 6.5%. Before these new injections into banks, the government predicted that public debt would be around 80% of GDP at year end. Another jump of tens of thousands of dollars in borrowing this year would be possible, but would bring the public debt to 90% of GDP, a level that would penalize investors.
Is that scenario, the possibility that the Treasury has to pay more than 9% by placing their bonds, as happened in Ireland-, precipitating speculation about the request for assistance to European rescue fund. Since last July, the EU allows some sort of partial redemption, limited to banking. But the strength of the government to borrow money from the EU and the IMF for financial institutions is more than justified: there is no guarantee that what the EU interpreted as partial redemption will not become, by the grace of the market pressure in total surrender. Something that, as has happened with Portugal, Greece and Ireland, close the tap international private financing for years and would require to take a tough economic conditions program in exchange for EU support. Whenever the EU it could afford.
スペイン政府のBANKIA銀行の公的資金注入で、公的負債の増大で、スペイン政府が破産(破綻)するのは近いか?
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