スペインの公的債務は、史上最速の速度で成長
La deuda pública de España crece al mayor ritmo de la historia
El endeudamiento público superó los 882.000 millones al cierre de 2012
El aumento en el primer año de Rajoy es el mayor registrado nunca
El pasivo toca su máximo desde 1910
Miguel Jiménez / Amanda Mars Madrid 17 FEB 2013 - 00:07 CE
Spain's public debt grows at the fastest rate in history
The public debt exceeded 882,000 million at the end of 2012
The increase in the first year of Rajoy is the largest ever recorded
The passive touch its highest since 1910
Miguel Jimenez / Amanda Mars Madrid 17 FEB 2013 - 00:07 CET
The Government and the Bank of Spain figures already have in their possession. And are chilling. The Spanish government debt broke records in 2012. In the first year of the Government of Mariano Rajoy, passive volume measured by European standards, skyrocketed to 882,300 million euros, according to official sources. That means that in one year increased by 146,000 million. 400 million of debt every day. Never in the economic history of Spain's general government debt had increased so much in a single year. The increase in 2012 dwarfs even that of 2009, the year of the black stage José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for public debt. In five years, the debt has increased by 500,000 million and thus becomes one of the major drags on the recovery of the Spanish economy.
The increase in public debt in 2012 is the equivalent of more than 14 points of gross domestic product (GDP). The National Statistics Institute (INE) has not published the figure of GDP last year, but using public and private estimates, these 882 300 million of debt equivalent to between 83.5% and 84% of GDP. The government had forecast a ratio of 79.8% in the Budget for 2012, which launched last July, but, in developing the 2013, revised the figure upwards and reached 85% fear. In relative terms, it is the highest debt level in more than a century, particularly since 1910, when the Spanish debt stood at 88% of GDP, according to the historical series published by the IMF. At the time, Spain was recovering from the 1898 crisis, in which the costs of the war with the United States and the loss of the colonies led debt above 100% of GDP. "The problem with this level of debt is that you submit to the tyranny of market expectations: not only increases the interest payments, which eat a lot more of their budgets, but it also makes you a much more vulnerable to changing interest rates. And the market can move from solvent to insolvent consider yourself one month to another one due only to a change in expectations, "says Antonio Garcia Pascual from London, chief economist for Southern Europe at Barclays Capital, the servicing of analysts forecast a weight debt to GDP around 95% in 2015.
The bank bailout and raise provider payment debt
Several factors explain the increased debt record last year. Much is due to the deficit. Despite cuts and tax increases, the government of Mariano Rajoy has been unable to significantly reduce the gap in the public accounts. While communities and municipalities themselves have further reduced the deficit remains the main cause of the increase in debt. But in addition to that, especially three factors. On one side, the rescue of Spain to recapitalize banks. The Government requested in 2012 almost 40,000 million to its European partners to inject in BFA-Bankia, CatalunyaBanc, NCG Banco and Banco de Valencia and to pump money into the bad bank, which has caused December 2012 is the month of history Spain's greatest growth in debt. Second, is the provider payment plan, which has caused debt not previously computed (unpaid bills) pass to count as public debt. Third, the debt also grows the share allocated to Spain bailout loans to Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
COUNTRY
Although the star of the increase in debt is the central state, the Bank of Spain does not publish the figures with a breakdown by authorities until 15 March. Outstanding liabilities exceed state and one billion euros and probably 100% of GDP at the end of the year, but there are more than 100,000 million debt of a government in the hands of others (for the reserve fund Social Security, the provider payment and rescue autonomous, mainly). That circumstance and other settings lower the debt measured by the excessive deficit procedure referred to 882,300 million. This figure does not include about 60,000 million euros of debt owed by public enterprises.
A troubling context
There is the snapshot of the volume of that debt as alarming, but the context that supports an economy-six million unemployed suffering its second recession in four years, and his meteoric rise: before the crisis in 2008 , was less than half (36.3%) and the Government expected to reach 90% in 2013. To Emilio Ontiveros, president of Financial Analysts International (AFI), "the main problem is the payment of interest, because it is the most unproductive spending item possible and occurs in a country that has had to cut back in other areas and need to recover growth. "
Gross liabilities exceed one billion euros and approximately 100% of GDP
Spain had never spent so much money to pay only the interest on its debt: EUR 38 660 million is what they collect for this year's State Budget (PGE), 33% more than budgeted for last year. These financial expenses were for the first time in history that the Government intended to chapter staff costs. "When the GDP grows, the debt level is indigestible, but recession is worrisome: if you do not grow, you can not pay your debts," said Ontiveros, who argues that Spain should have requested the bond purchase program prepared by the Bank Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest paid on Spanish debt markets, a mechanism for which the Government should ask before rescue its European partners. "The corollary of this is that Spain needs urgent measures aimed to reduce this expense," he says.
The average interest paid by the state's debt is 4.1% with an average maturity of 6.1 years, but this level of return that investors demand may grow by the economic downturn. despite the truce that markets have given Spain, interests by political tensions rose in Spain and Italy.
Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney, warning that Spain fails in all the variables that serve to stabilize the debt: its economy does not grow, paid a high interest rate and has primary deficit (prior to payment of interest on the debt). If it redirects your situation, this "is a dynamic that eventually leads to non-payment," he reflects.
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