スペインの経済大臣のルイス=デ=ギンドは、2013年のスペインの財政赤字目標を6%まで緩和するように要求
Guindos pide a Bruselas flexibilizar el déficit público hasta el 6% este año
La Comisión se inclina por dar menos margen
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 29 MAR 2013 - 02:15 CET
Bruselas) y que las comunidades tengan algún alivio.
Brussels asks Guindos flexible public deficit to 6% this year
The Commission is inclined to give less room
Claudi Perez Brussels 29 MAR 2013 - 02:15 CET
Come curves and Spain needs air to not suffocate: the Government admits that the economy is already worse than expected-to combine that trinity sinister cuts, soaring unemployment and lack of credit, and fiscal space needed for not blocking the exit roads to a recovery that has just arrived. Brussels has granted nearly a year to reduce the public deficit target. Missing figures put that mattress: the Government is planning to request one and a half extra margin. Pending close the deal in the coming days, the Executive takes weeks negotiating the plan to relax the goal of 2013 (which was 4.5% without that extra year) up to 6% of GDP, according to government sources. Brussels is inclined to tighten the rope more and leave a little harder target, at 5.5%. The difference, roughly, is 5,000 million.
The economy of the tenth no sense, but either 5.5% or 6%, that margin is politically key
The economy of the tenth not make much sense, but whether the end is 5.5% or 6%, that margin is politically key for several reasons. A: is speculated to get two more years, and then the 6% was insured, but eventually one will almost certainly to maintain tension with both the government and with communities. Two: to Brussels not so interested in the exact amount of the deficit (and seen in 2012) as that Spain continued efforts of adjustment. And three is likely to arrive later that second year, because the wind has changed. Spain is already in a recession and Brussels, for cases such as Spanish, has initiated a shift towards greater flexibility to the barrage of criticism for a management that has put the entire continent in trouble. This revision of the deficit will be the third in just over three years. The team's vice president Olli Rehn is hiding behind that fact to combat its image of dogmatism, hard-won in the face of no stimuli anywhere or guts to demand anything other than Berlin.
The extra year is vital, before a terrifying scenario for the combination of internal weakness (indigestion of the bubble in the guts of banking) and the return of foreign instability after Cypriot saga. The final figure will be agreed to appear in the stability program, presented the second half of April. This is one of the highlights of the year: that depends on no more cuts in 2013 (as promised in Brussels) and that communities have some relief.
Sources: Ministry of Economy, European Commission and the Bank of Spain. / COUNTRY
The government aims to achieve a benevolent path: 6% deficit this year, 4.5% in 2014 and 3% in 2015. That means limiting adjustments to some 10,000 million this year (which would be 15,000 million if the goal is 5.5%), from 7% in 2012, the final figure after tinkering that has led to the review required by Eurostat. The total deficit rises above 10% of the aid to banks, which do not count in Brussels.
The total deficit rises above 10% of the aid to banks
For the credibility of that data is essential cruising speed of the economy: growth and deficit are communicating vessels. Even here there is good news: the team now Luis de Guindos predicts a fall of around 1% of GDP this year. That is worse earlier expectations, they left the 0.5% fall in: the crisis forces. Still, the executive is more optimistic than the Bank of Spain, which provides for destruction by 1.5%. Economics predicts that growth will return in 2014, with an increase just under 1%, the economy will stop falling in the third quarter to start moving smoothly at year end. Brussels delays that scenario a quarter. Analysts point further.
Government sources warn that no deficit figures and the GDP are completely closed. This will have to wait for a meeting between Guindos and Rehn, scheduled for the days after Easter. Madrid wants to ensure the greatest possible scope and that supports a stream that has been gaining weight in Europe: those who complain that Brussels has stepped on the brakes too. "The adjustment is necessary, but not just give results: the question is whether you can make more bearable. We must review the pace and do damage control in countries committed to reform. Hence the change in language already detected. Ideally go further, a mix with reforms to the German and Anglo macroeconomic policies, otherwise we run the risk of falls excessive cost of the crisis in this generation ", indicate in La Moncloa.
The Commission recognizes that Spain has made a remarkable fiscal effort and that the recession is worse than expected, "Spain meets the two conditions required to soften the fiscal path," explains European sources. And both Brussels and Madrid agree that no further measures are needed in 2013: with the announced and strict control on the government and community-that this time will benefit from higher-margin will suffice. "There will be additional adjustments this year unless catastrophe", Moncloa sources indicated to this newspaper during the last European summit.
2014 is another thing: there are emerging differences between the Commission expects further action by then (from the VAT tax fuel or maintenance of higher personal income tax) and the government, which is planning to return to reduce the tax income - "at once or in installments," according to executive-, and argues that there is little room for anything else if you do not want gripar the economy further. The last report of the Bank of Spain is a cold shower: the supervisor is aligned with Brussels and ensures that if the government lowers the income tax the deficit will go back up to 7% in 2014. The fulfillment of the objectives is questionable whether the recession is worse than expected, and that is almost certain-as if the debt crisis worsens after the rescue to Cyprus, as is happening: the interest payment is and second game of the Spanish budget higher.
"The government's idea is still lower taxes if there is room," sources insist Moncloa. But there is no margin, and European sources insist to the Bank of Spain.
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