スペイン国立銀行の2013年のスペインの経済成長率予想は、・ー1'5%で、失業者は27'1%に逹すると予測
RECESIÓN EN ESPAÑA
El Banco de España aplaza la creación de empleo y prevé que el paro supere el 27%
La institución vuelve a reclamar más medidas para acelerar la moderación salarial
Augura que la destrucción de puestos de trabajo se prolongará en 2014
El PIB caerá un 1,5% este año, lo que añade presión al Gobierno para actualizar sus cifras
Álvaro Romero Madrid 26 MAR 2013 - 10:25 CET
número de personas en edad y disposición de trabajar, volverá a caer.
En 2014, añade el Banco de España la
The Bank of Spain postpones job creation and unemployment expected to exceed 27%
The institution returns to claim further measures to accelerate wage moderation
Predicts that the destruction of jobs will run in 2014
GDP will fall by 1.5% this year, adding pressure on the government to update its figures
Alvaro Romero Madrid 26 MAR 2013 - 10:25 CET
The Bank of Spain has published this morning its new forecasts for the Spanish economy, which predict a decline in GDP of 1.5% this year and overshadow labor market projections. According to figures provided by the institution and that includes in its latest Economic Bulletin March, recession affecting the country and the burden of the poor performance of employment in the final stretch of 2012 will cause "significant destruction" of jobs during 2013. With this, the unemployment rate will continue to rise for sixth consecutive year to 27.1%. And yet the labor force, which is the number of people of working age and disposition, will fall.
In 2014, the Bank of Spain added job losses "would slow substantially and, indeed, in the course of the year would begin the net creation of jobs" in recent quarters. Nevertheless, estimates the balance of the year as a whole will remain negative, with a cut of 0.6% in employment. The slowdown in job cuts would reduce the unemployment rate slightly to 26.8%. In any case, continue above 26.02% which closed in 2012 and that is a record. These forecasts are among the most pessimistic that manage public institutions and are closer to those provided by experts from the private testing centers.
The agency headed by Luis Maria Linde explains that employment forecasts are made "under the assumption that the labor reform approved last year continue to exert a dampening effect on wages." At least with the same intensity as that recorded to date, no small. Drawing on statistics, the halt-cut-wages have suffered in 2012, has not been seen in decades.
Additional measures
Nevertheless, the Bank of Spain recommended "further action" or "more decisive actions in the field-of-broader structural reforms" in order to create better conditions for economic growth, which would facilitate faster reduction of unemployment.
moreAnalysts predict an unemployment rate above 26% until 2014No significant changes in estimates for ANGEL LABORDAUnemployment deepens social wounds in SpainThe cuts emphasize the salary adjustmentWages paid this round of adjustments
As for the whole economy, the new provisions of the institution bet because the Spanish economy falls by 1.5% in 2013, triple the forecast established by the Government and is in line with the European Commission. In 2014, a recovery will begin "modest" with a GDP growth of 0.6%. In this regard, the Executive has already dropped to update its figures on GDP Brussels softens once the objectives of fiscal consolidation, but second the projection published by the Bank of Spain would require completely redoing budgets and, by extension, complicate deficit reduction in the absence of further cuts.
For now, as things stand, the former central bank also predicts difficulties in reducing the deficit. For the supervisor, the mismatch in the accounts of all the administrations will end 2013 at 6% compared to 10% of 2012-relying on aid to the bank and, in the absence of further tightening measures, only one tenth lower in 2014, to 5.9% of GDP.
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