スペインの30歳以下の若者の失業率は44%、25歳以下の若者の失業率は57'2%に！。
El paro que más quema
El desempleo supera el 44% entre los menores de 30 años
La evolución de la cifra pone en peligro a casi un millón de jóvenes con baja cualificación
Carmen Sánchez-Silva 26 ABR 2013 - 22:10 CET
Most burning Unemployment
Unemployment is over 44% among those under 30 years
The development of revenues endanger nearly a million young people with low qualifications
Carmen Sanchez-Silva 26 ABR 2013 - 22:10 CET
Tomorrow, Monday, a delegation of MEPs will arrive in Madrid to discuss the plan to combat youth unemployment in Europe will allocate about 1,000 million euros. Will find a survey (LFS) freshly baked saying that more than six million Spanish are unemployed, more than 27% of the entire population, unseen figures and analysts predicted that the end , 2013.
They will also see how unemployment among those under 25 years (the collective interests them) already affects nearly six out of ten, after putting the unemployment rate at 57.2%. This is an increase of over 30,200 people over the previous quarter and illustrates a climb unchallenged since 2007. Spain has been at the head of the youth unemployment rate, more than double the average of the 27 (23.2%) and threatening the future of a generation, as repeatedly warning the International Labour Organization (ILO).
"These figures are a drama," says Jose Antonio Herce, partner International Financial Analyst (AFI), "especially that of children under 24, who are studying and are discouraged to look for work before their absence". But also in the group of 25-29 years old, whose unemployment rate was around 36% in the first quarter of 2013, touching the two end points increase over 2012, as the children. 1.8 million young people are unemployed in total, 44.5% of the population under 30 years.
The European Parliament delegates will also find a government that has few positive statistics display. The results of the Entrepreneurship and Employment Strategy 2013-2016 Young, approved last February 22 after staging with social partners, are translated by the time when almost 20,500 young people have registered as self-employed since then, according to the Ministry of Employment and Social Security.
The secretary general of the Union of Professionals and Self-Employed Workers Spain (UPTA), Sebastian Reyna, maintains that the only data that has produced favorable EPA first quarter are self-employed without employees have been discharged, 22,000 , probably encouraged by the fee of 50 euros, and that coincides with those provided by the ministry of Fatima Banez, who plans to implement some 213,000 shares in the four year duration of the plan, which has a budget of 3,500 million euros and have started with 100 steps.
The strength of Europe on the debt is such that leaves little room for maneuver
The ministry will describe the measures, although it will be very difficult to make positive changes to the strength of the unemployment data, reducing the workforce and that is by joining skyrocketing in the last six months inactive volume, which deterred in their efforts to find work to the despair of not finding it: and are about 2.8 million children under 30 years. Because, even though the ball is in the Government's court, the strength of European decisions on the relaxation of debt is such that neither leaves much room for maneuver. At least until elections are held in September and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is re-elected by voters who are not willing to pay for imbalances in other countries. If so, would relax the pressure on the deficit, which could give a respite to the investment, say experts consulted.
Because, even those considered appropriate actions contained in the plan to combat youth unemployment, as Gayle Allard, professor of economics at IE Business School, "is comparable to putting Band-Aids on a structural problem." "There is no economy that creates jobs without growth," he says, in the hope that at the end of 2013 begin to be the first signs that the economy rises. "Not much, but something," he says, aware that the consensus of analysts expects GDP to fall by 1.5% this year and the unemployment rate will stand at 26.8%, which is exceeded in the first quarter of the year and that alone could be cut if the population continued to lose ground by leaps and bounds over the current, already high, according Herce. "Would not exceeding 27.5% at year-end," exclaims the partner of AFI, which provides that unemployment among under 25s up to 60%.
Allard notes that with an increase in GDP of 0.8% can generate work, perhaps more attainable goal next year, to materialize the estimates given by the expert panel prepared by the Savings Banks Foundation (Func) which sets an average GDP growth of 0.7%. The government expects 0.5%
"To solve the problem of youth unemployment can not wait any longer. And the solutions implemented in the short term are useless. They have to be long term, when we have been growing and serious reform of education university rebalance excess and shortage of vocational students whose needs are expected to double in the future. Young people need an emergency plan with sufficient funds and causing effects from the beginning. We must be aware of the seriousness of the problem, the danger we that there is a lost generation of individuals that at 30 or 40 years are precarious and malvivan within a decade, "says Agustin del Valle, Professor of Economics School of Industrial Organization (EOI).
In his opinion, the contracts associated with training, contracts or training practices introduced by the Employment Strategy and Entrepreneurship Young going in the right direction, but not enough. Something that demonstrates its limited use. A lack of information from the Ministry of Employment (which has ruled facilitate it), temporary employment, as Adecco, self-employed or grouped in UPTA leading online job search, Infojobs, deny that their use has increased in view of their own data.
Demystifying some mantras
A Luis Garrido, Professor of Sociology at the Open University, likes to speak properly, as ideologue of the EPA that was once. And try to remove mantras that are installed in the popular imagination. Not think that Spain will have a lost generation, since the stratospheric unemployment rates exceeding 57% for the youngest, just affecting a fifth of those with less than 25 years.
The second myth is that Garrido end is that which is spreading among the population, worried about a mass exodus of young people. With the latest data available, from the 114,400 they started living in other countries in 2012, only 3,900 are Spanish and are of working age. The outputs of Spanish native working age were 28,600 people, 24,700 returns. The data show no such exodus for now.
What one finds, says the professor, is that the age of youth is prolonged, it is in relation to work, home and the couple itself, ie with independence. According to statistics, there are few, very few, who live outside the parental home, which may be more advisable to take the concept of young adulthood to 34 years.
Garrido has analyzed young people between 20 and 34 years. And his conclusions are as follows. Those aged between 20 and 24 years working in 2000 have been halved. Among this group there were never more than 8% homeownership is available to it and more than 6% that had house and partner. Young people between 25 and 29 years are another story. His business has dropped in both men and women (to a lesser extent). But while 23% of them began 2000 with house, today it is only 21.5% who have it. They have also lowered the young couple. Just the opposite in the case of women, who have taken advantage of the crisis to independence. Increased from 23% to 29% those with home and from 21% to 23% of them also have partner. This evolution is enhanced in the case of women between 30 and 34 years, of which, about 60% work (compared to 57% in 2000), while the occupation of the men of this age has fallen, like her own domicile possess couple, who for females has risen from 40% to 53% and from 35.8% to 46.4%.
Del Valle recalls that in the crisis of the eighties, when unemployment rates were similar to the present, there was also talk of a lost generation that the future was born. But this crisis is longer and has destroyed more jobs, two-thirds among children under 30 years, stated.
The young group is most affected by the crisis, with the participation and employment rates that have fallen and the unemployment rate that has grown since 2007, says Carlos Martin, economist Workers Commissions (CCOO). However, from your point of view, it is more urgent to focus actions and public funds in the most vulnerable to the degree of inequality (in which Spain has been put forward to the European head) stops increasing. And these people are those with less education (especially over 45 years) who are at risk of becoming structural unemployment. For those under 30 years, nearly a million people have a low educational level. A very similar figure to thicken up the long-term unemployed in the first quarter. "You have to define a retraining program for those unemployed urgently", he argues.
Martin criticizes the government because he believes that this has driven the strategy against youth unemployment because Europe has allocated funds to avoid the escalation of unemployment experienced by this group in the EU. "The plan has been assembled to spend that money. Without any previous study. The Ministry of Employment is lost and it shows approving a plan that includes no less than one hundred measures which are merely palliative, "he says.
In the Workers' Commissions are concerned that the bonus money, "whose purpose is to protect the most vulnerable", is intended for those under 30, who are not just because of their age and ability to go back in the future. Something that matches Juan José Dolado, Professor of Economics at the Universidad Carlos III.
Dolado a portrait of children under 30 years, a group of seven million people, four million of which are part of the workforce and the rest are students (nearly two million) and Ninis, who neither study nor work. Of the four million who participate in the labor market, explains, remain employed 2.2 million and 1.9 million have lost their jobs since 2007. "And about a million of these young barely have training (not finished compulsory secondary stage) because they left their studies to heat the building boom of the first decade of the century. They are the real problem. Since the formed star in a massive migration process is not yet reflected in the statistics. Young people with basic studies need dual training, not just training, but training associated with employment to improve their skills while few resources available, "he says flatly. Knowing, though, of how costly it is for firms to hire apprentices.
Not surprisingly, the CEOE recently urged his employers to refrain from the urge to join the Government aims to dual training for its implementation be very expensive for companies. The government needs to encourage entrepreneurs in this line rather than through recruitment bonuses, which has been shown to be bread for today and hunger for tomorrow, saying Dolado and Herce.
Combat labor duality is one of the main proposals
"We need flexible entry to educational programs, particularly vocational training, and design them especially for the needs of this group, with less study habits, practices increase, recognizing work experience ..." Elizabeth Motellón advocates, Professor of Labor Economics at the UOC.
Professor at the University Carlos III believes that the solution to youth unemployment (which traditionally has doubled the overall rate) is to end the dual labor market, one of the objectives of the reform carried out in February of last year, not occurred. Except if you look at the temporary rate, currently at 22.12%, compared with rates above 35% in 2007. The crisis has hit with temporary contracts, mostly young. He advocates once ruled by the Government as unconstitutional single contract, the existence of two contracts, severance payments increase in proportion of old, one for and one for dismissal from irrelevant. Besides through a reform of unemployment benefits, so that they are more generous than at present (its coverage increased from 78.4% to 63.4% today, according to CC OO), but last less time, year and a half to two years time. "Just the opposite of what the government has done," says the professor.
Dolado not believe in the lost generation, like Allard. They favor the exodus of well-trained workers (especially engineers) as output to other countries to find work and better quality of life. They will return to Spain with more experience and training. Although it must be remembered, says Professor of Economics IE, "that Spain has trained young people who can not work here, they can not be independent and homes and save. And the country is going to pay for that supposed slow future economic growth. " But not surprised because "Spain has long wasting their youth because of labor market rigidities" and does not believe anything has changed (other than dismissal) after the last labor reform. Nor has made the jump to high-productivity economy.
The timing and dropout, firmly believes Agustin del Valle, are the source of the problem. And where you have to put the solution, of course, is through investment. "In economics there is no word austerity. There are only expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary "ditch.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿