Unemployment will continue to rise in the euro zone next year
The OECD calls for accelerating banking union and recapitalization for the credit flow
The Eurozone recession will worsen this year, but will rebound in 2014
The OECD predicts that unemployment will climb to 28% and just down the deficit
El paro seguirá aumentando en la zona euro el año que viene
La OCDE llama a acelerar la unión bancaria y la recapitalización para que fluya el crédito
La recesión de la Eurozona se agravará este año, aunque rebotará en 2014
La OCDE prevé que el paro escale al 28% y que el déficit apenas baje
DESCARGABLE Informe de previsiones de la OCDE
Miguel Mora Paris 29 MAY 2013 - 12:42 CET
Unemployment will continue to rise in the euro zone next year
The OECD calls for accelerating banking union and recapitalization for the credit flow
The Eurozone recession will worsen this year, but will rebound in 2014
The OECD predicts that unemployment will climb to 28% and just down the deficit
DOWNLOADABLE Report OECD forecasts
Miguel Mora Paris 29 MAY 2013 - 12:42 CET
The recovery in employment and economic sentiment in the United States, and the aggressive monetary policy launched by Japan to stimulate its activity are the two good news for the global economy, according to the forecast report released Wednesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. At the other end of the scale, the more global problem remains the lack of trust, the deepening recession and high unemployment in the euro zone, especially at the periphery. The euro economy will shrink this year five tenths more than expected (0.6% vs. 0.1%), before rebounding by 1.1% in 2014. But unemployment will continue to grow this year (12.1%) to reach 12.3% in 2014.
Deputy Secretary General and OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan, warns that the eurozone remains "the major threat to the global recovery," and recalls that European banks are "weakly capitalized" and that the ECB should continue to take "unconventional measures" to ensure that credit flows to businesses.
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"The weakness persists," said Padoan, underlining a political problem added: "The institutions that can respond effectively to financial and political difficulties associated with the management of the crisis have not yet been implemented or, those that exist are not adequate. "
The OECD recommends supporting growth in Europe rising wages in "most countries" (without citing Germany) and further liberalizing markets. While recognizing that competitiveness has improved "in some countries", noted that "the cows with the reforms and social unrest are increasing because the results on growth and jobs are not visible."
The analysis suggests that the ECB should further lower interest rates on deposits and consider additional asset purchases. And he is critical of financial policy. He says that Europe must continue the "financial sector repair" to ensure that monetary policy decisions are transferred to the real economy "and the need to strengthen the institutions of the euro area, essentially banking union and supervision only for address the "tricks of sovereign debt."
The OECD is concerned that "the strong disagreements between Member States may have a negative impact on the confidence and exacerbate the fragmentation", and calls urgently clarify the conditions that allow the ESM to inject capital directly into financial sector, which in turn should clean up their balance sheets, improve their capitalization and establish new rules to restore creditworthiness.
Moreover, the OECD recommends adjusting fiscal consolidation to promote growth, and "reduce the rate of reduction of the deficit if the weakness persists." According Padoan, the activity continues to fall due to tax adjustments, weak confidence and poor credit conditions, especially in the periphery, in this way, growth in the euro zone will only begin to appear "slow" in the second half of this year. On the hypothetical dangers of inflation, the organization that oversees the world's most advanced economies considered to be limited by the "high unemployment", which continue to increase this year and stabilize at around 12.25% in 2014.
Between the two great countries of the euro, Germany will grow in 2014 (2%), and France will continue to have problems because unemployment, while continuing to demonstrate to François Hollande, will continue to grow until the end of 2014. According to forecasts by the OECD, France, who on Wednesday will receive two years of delay in Brussels, will close this year with a deficit of 4%, and in 2014 will reach 3.5%.
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