欧州委員会は、スペインの改革を促進する(尻を引っ張たく)ために、改革実行に期限を付ける、あんまり ちんたら しているので？！
Bruselas dicta los plazos de las reformas
La Comisión Europea estrecha la vigilancia sobre Madrid, pero da más margen para cumplir el déficit y evita abrir un expediente por desequilibrios excesivos
Giro (retórico) en Bruselas
DESCARGABLE Recomendaciones sobre el Plan de Reformas
DESCARGABLE Recomendaciones por el déficit excesivo
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 29 MAY 2013 - 22:18 CET
Brussels dictates the timing of the reforms
The European Commission on Madrid close surveillance, but gives more scope to meet the deficit and avoid opening a file for excessive imbalances
Giro (rhetorical) in Brussels
DOWNLOADABLE Recommendations on Reform Plan
DOWNLOADABLE Recommendations by the excessive deficit
Claudi Pérez Brussels 29 MAY 2013 - 22:18 CET
No clear direction: Europe is in a sea of doubt. Overwhelmed by a second recession self-inflicted by excessive cuts, the European Commission today certified a shift that builds on his foot off the brake pedal to the accelerator austerity reforms. Actually, this new Brussels Consensus is basically a rhetorical turn, seasoned with occasional measure, such as youth unemployment: 6,000 million euros for seven years in 27 countries in a continent with 26 million unemployed and rising. Spain, European champion in unemployment, is the paradigmatic example of the new European economic policy blows hot and cold sand. The Commission today issued strict deadlines for government reforms and announced that it will strengthen its supervision on Madrid to avoid defaults, with major political measures on pensions, labor market and taxes. But while hand loosened with the deficit and avoided open disciplinary proceedings by excessive imbalances. Brussels in order, squeezes but does not choke.
And not only with Spain. With one hand, the Commission gave more time for a total of seven countries to meet the deficit, with the other demanded a reform agenda that in some cases, such as French or Spanish, may cause serious difficulties for the governments and is on the same path that has put Europe in a painful relapse. In exchange for the two extra years to the deficit, the Government Brussels imposed deadlines a dozen in as many reforms, with tricky steps as a new twist to pensions (which may result in a reduction of benefits in 2014) and an assessment of the consequent labor reform measures if necessary (which it will in September), and enacts new tax increases.
Pensions, labor reform and liberalization imposed on the agenda
The Spanish package further blurs the option of a quick exit from the crisis. The Spanish economy continues gripada, without stimuli in Frankfurt, Berlin or wherever is almost doomed to depression, to the Japanese. Could have been worse: at least pulled Executive room for deficit (which may reach 6.5% of GDP this year and 5.8% next, two and three tenths more than expected, respectively) and avoided opening of a file. Despite its excessive imbalances. Despite the failures of the government to reform. And even though a part of the Commission and some members wanted more punishment.
There will be no lesson because Brussels needs to display the turn undertaken with permission of Berlin. The Commission assessed the reforms adopted by Spain, as it did with Slovenia, the other country with serious imbalances-and the fact that Rajoy has designed, half in Brussels, a reform plan "convincing". But do not trust: recommendations for Spain are more detailed than the rest. Only in the case of Slovenia no such detail. EU sources explained that in exchange for avoiding the file, Brussels will further strengthen surveillance. Madrid must undertake a "thorough and timely implementation" of recommendations Vice President Olli Rehn warned.
That's what the calendar, although not open file to compliance depends on the good will of the Executive. The Commission plays with the firm commitment of Spain, but also the memorandum of bailout conditions was associated with binding and yet have not been approved many measures.
The goal for this year offset remains at 6.5%
Rehn analysis on Spain is winding. On the one hand, "structural fiscal effort in recent years is consistent with the recommendations." In addition, Spain has not complied with the deficit and there are serious risks either do so in the future. Rehn's conclusion is not that your prescription has worsened the recession and therefore the possibilities of balancing public accounts, but the nightmare is the result of an "unexpected deterioration of the economic situation." Despite the declaration of intent on austerity plans for Madrid Rehn dangerously resemble those of the past: "It is important for Spain to continue its efforts and strengthen the fiscal framework to support the growth, systematic reviews of public expenditure". That sounds to further cuts. Brussels criticizes also the low tax: anti-fraud claims, but also closes the door to tax cuts, aimed at new highs. The Commission wants a "systematic review" of the tax system by March 2014, "explore further limiting the application of reduced VAT" and increases in fuel taxes. That is, at least two hikes in taxes in a recession.
Examination of labor reform must come in July, and Brussels summons "make changes, if needed, in September 2013". But perhaps most striking is the chapter on pensions: Spain must "finish at the end of 2013 the sustainability factor regulation establishing, among other things, that the retirement age will increase in terms of life expectancy." That points to a further increase of the retirement age, which does not arise from the wise report commissioned by Rajoy.
Duties include setting spending and tax rises
Spain ultimately gets leeway. And Brussels, at a time, close monitoring of Madrid. Everyone wins, relatively common in Brussels: Minister Luis de Guindos presenting reforms can go at your own pace, but the Commission and members can grab the calendar to put pressure. The government now has an advantage: there are other sick economies from the France that resists reforms to a Holland who was champion of the policy protijera and now prefer to delay painful measures. "The impact on society of several years of little or no growth is powerful," said President Jose Manuel Barroso. The EU has awakened and starts "a paradigm shift," said Ricardo Barbieri, economist at Mizuho. Though this change is, in fact, tiny.
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