欧州行政委員会は、スペインの2014年の経済成長率を1%と推定し、2015年は1'7%との見通し
Previsiones de Invierno
Bruselas vaticina más crecimiento para España, pero advierte sobre el déficit
La Comisión augura que el desfase presupuestario incumplirá objetivos en 2013 y 2015
Calcula que el PIB avanzará el doble de lo que esperaba hasta ahora con un alza del 1%
La deuda pública volverá a subir este año hasta rozar el 100% del PIB con un 98,9%
In English: Brussels estimates Spain to miss deficit goals but sees higher growth
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 25 FEB 2014 - 14:11 CET
Winter Forecasts
Brussels predicts more growth for Spain, but warns on deficit
The Commission predicts that the budget gap will default targets in 2013 and 2015
Estimated that GDP will advance twice what I expected so far with an increase of 1%
Public debt will rise again this year to almost 100% of GDP to 98.9%
In Inglés: Brussels Estimates Spain to miss deficit goals but sees higher growth
Claudi Pérez Brussels 25 FEB 2014 - 14:11 CET
Improved economic outlook , but the Spanish recovery is greatly influenced by the fiscal hole . The European Commission has published today the economic outlook for EU winter , with good and bad news for Spain . The growth will be 1% this year ( double the figure predicted Brussels until now, and better than the IMF and the government ) and cruising speed goes to 1.7% in 2015, according to a draft advance by El Pais and whose data have been subsequently confirmed by the EU executive . Spain ended last year with a fall of 1.2% , according to figures from the Commission. The Spanish macroeconomic table , definitely improves . And yet it is full of mines : depends on the recovery of the euro zone , that emerging not give more scares , the ECB get curb price tensions (clipping territory deflation) and, above all , that get the government to put public finances in order.
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After four years of cuts and reforms , the deficit not just lose heaven. According to Commission data , the deficit was 7.2 % of GDP last year, but at least half of that figure point to aid losses to banks , which do not count for purposes of Spain in Brussels (6.5%) . In 2014, the gap would meet the goals set by 5.8% thanks to the improvement in activity , but would go up in 2015 if more cuts are taken.
For next year , the EU executive estimates that the hole in the public accounts will rise to 6.5% of GDP compared to 4.2% included in the latest Stability Program . This recovery , the Commission explains , is that the scenario employee provides the extinction of tax increases approved in 2012. Therefore, the ultimate goal for Spain , which was to end 2016 below the 3% limit is complicated . As a result , the scope of the government and President Rajoy is reduced to approve a thousand times announced tax cuts with a view to the elections of 2015.
Joaquín Almunia Vice President European and explained in an interview in this newspaper is not the time to announce tax cuts , although the sources consulted by the government assume that the government has to give good news on that flank at the approach of elections . If that forecast Brussels also should undertake further adjustments Spain met, which would translate into lower growth , according to EU sources suggest .
Public debt is rampant . Spain entered the Great Recession with a public debt of 36% of GDP. According to Commission data , closed 2013 with a debt of 94.3 % of GDP , and this year is expected to near 100 % : will go to 98.9 % , to exceed this threshold , most likely in 2015.
Regarding the labor market , unemployment will remain at 25.7 % on average in 2014 and only drop to 24.6% in 2015 despite the expected improvement in activity . In any case, clarifies that "the process of job destruction is bottoming and is expected to begin employment to positive growth rates in 2014 , contributing to a moderate fall of unemployment."
The latest forecasts from Brussels to Spain gathered GDP growth of 0.5% in 2014 and 1.7 % in 2015, years in which unemployment 26.4 % and 25.3 % of the working population would stand , respectively . As for the deficit , the Commission noted that this year would close at 5.9% of GDP in 2015 would at 6.6% .
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In a previous edition stated that Spain would breach the deficit target for 2014 is 5.8% when .
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