欧州中央銀行は、金利を0・75%に維持。
Draghi rebaja sus previsiones y advierte del riesgo de prorrogar la recesión a 2013
El organismo abre la puerta a una próxima rebaja de los tipos tras dejarlos en el 0,75%
Insiste en que el Gobierno conoce las condiciones y que de él depende pedir el rescate
El País Madrid 6 DIC 2012 - 14:05 CET
Draghi cut its forecasts and warns of recession extended to 2013
The body opens the door to a rate cut next after leave at 0.75%
Insists that the government knows the conditions and it determines the ransom demand
The Country Madrid 6 DIC 2012 - 14:05 CET
The president of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to keep the stable one month euro interest rates at a record low of 0.75% despite the risk that the economic situation deteriorates more than expected. In fact, as explained by its president, Mario Draghi, now predict a sharp decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone of between 0.6% and 0.4% this year. Moreover, with a view to 2013, the ECB does not rule out prolonged recession with a drop to 0.9% despite a recovery back to waiting other international bodies such as the European Commission and the IMF, which is opens the door to opt for lower interest rates in the coming months.
About Spain and the reluctance of the government to ransom, has insisted that the government already knows the "strict conditions" attached to aid and enable it determines. "We will not tell governments what to do," he asserted. Also, Draghi reiterated that it will not fix a previous level of security possible ECB intervention in markets. "It will be enough," he repeated.
The settings are not a medicine that kills, the crisis has brought to the surface the previous problems "
The reasons that have led the central bank to revise drastically projections are uncertainties about the resolution of the debt crisis and geopolitical difficulties, the United States and its precipcio tax included. Given this accumulation of problems, the new ECB forecasts for next year are placed in a range between 0.9% and a maximum of 0.3%, which would say goodbye to the second recession in eurozone just three years. The latter figure does match the calculations of Brussels or the IMF, which predicts a return to growth with a slight increase of 0.2% in 2013. Inflation side, the pressure on prices will remain stable unless last minute surprises with oil, paving the way for a possible lowering of the price of money to stimulate the recovery.
The European Commission, meanwhile, already lowered in November its growth forecasts for the eurozone, which will contract by 0.4% in 2012 and grow by a tenth in 2013, up from the previous estimate of -0.3 % and 1% for this year and next, respectively.
Eurostat has published today the second estimate of euro area GDP in the third quarter, which confirms that the economy entered recession monetary union technique to register a contraction in activity of 0.1% compared to the previous three months, when they had fallen by 0.2%.
The first thing to do is to solve the fragmentation of credit between countries "
However, the risk situation did not improve in the coming months. "The weakness in activity will continue in the coming year," warned the president of the ECB. To avoid prolonging the downturn, Draghi has argued that "the first is to solve the fragmentation of the credit and monetary policy among euro countries."
If this is the important step, something that, in his opinion, it is essential that governments continue to adjustments, recovery can begin to take place in late 2013. "Adjustments are not a drug that kills", the Italian economist responded to the question of whether Greece has not been sufficiently demonstrated that the cuts only serve to aggravate the recession. "We must not forget that we are in this situation of imbalance so bad for poor policies or lack of decisions that were in the run up to the crisis, which has only to bring out the above problems," he added.
On the role to be played by the ECB to support the recovery, Draghi has argued that the central bank "has done much" to date in laying the foundations for recovery. Lowered interest rates to record lows and, thanks to the announcement of its action not convenciales, has reduced risk premiums under pressure from countries like Spain. As a result, praised, also recovered the stock. "There are some positive aspects" in the European scene as wilderness recovery of German business confidence has justified. "But is it enough?, About not going to respond," he added to fulfill its maximum advance no further action in the short term. The essential, continued, is recovering demand and confidence in the markets function correctly.
Analysts do not expect great innovations of the last meeting of the ECB's rate. Experts believe likely to occur in early 2013 a new reduction of interest rates is already discounting the Euribor, but will depend on the evolution of the eurozone economy. "Our monetary policy remains accommodative," Draghi noted before acknowledging that, during the meeting of the highest governing body of the ECB, has been "extensive discussion" about whether it was necessary to lower the rates.
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