スペインの2013年の経済は、景気退行で、不安定
PRIMER PLANO
Año nuevo, año incierto
La economía en 2013 se debate entre la recuperación y la vuelta a la recesión
Alicia González 30 DIC 2012 - 00:00 CET
SPOTLIGHT
New Year, year uncertain
The economy in 2013 is torn between recovery and a return to recession
Alicia Gonzalez 30 DIC 2012 - 00:00 CET
Nothing like from low expectations to surprise positively with any improvement over the expected scenario. And that may end up being the economic history of 2013. Although, for now, the risks, threats and doubts raised by the new year are such that do not allow a final venture overly optimistic for the fifth year of crisis. Among analysts, the keyword to define the new year is uncertain.
The starting point does not help. With few exceptions, such as the United States, 2012 has shattered recovery omens that occurred late last year: the eurozone has come back into recession this year end, Hurricane Sandy and U.S. fiscal threat activity has slowed in recent months, and China and India have grown less intense than expected. Turn to these dynamics takes time and even more so in an extremely weak growth environment like this, as noted by the rating agency Fitch: "We expect weak global growth in 2013, particularly among the major developed economies-US , Eurozone, Japan and the UK, which probably recorded only a marginal improvement in growth, as it continues the weak recovery from the crisis of 2008. " Is the new post-crisis reality hindering urgent jobs in the developed world and also affecting emerging countries due to lower global demand for its products.
Under these conditions, the first half of the year goes almost without loss. "In our base scenario, we expect the global growth continue trapped in the twilight zone, which separates a sustainable economic expansion of a return to recession", Case Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley. "During the first half of 2013, while political uncertainties persist, the markets will be more concerned with the fear of a more dark, but during the second half of the year, if appropriate measures are applied, twilight can lead to a new stage light and a better 2014, "he predicts. Many constraints to trust the outcome.
The first half of 2013 was considered lost for rich countries
The first uncertainty is clear the U.S. budget negotiations. Political agreement on the distribution of income and expenses will depend on the progress of the world's largest economy. Support from Federal Reserve announced that maintaining low interest rates until the unemployment down to 6.5%, in November stood at 7.7% - is guaranteed. "The U.S. economy will surely be tested during the first half of 2013 due to the dilemma facing politicians between taxes and spending, the so-called tax precipice. Reaching the finals will undoubtedly be difficult, "admits Kevin Gardiner, head of investment strategy at Barclays, in its report Compass. No analyst thinks that sooner or later, Republicans and Democrats will not agree on the 700,000 million at stake in the form of tax increases and spending cuts that are launched automatically on January 1, 2013. Agreements may be retroactive and thus soften its impact on the economy, but the threat is too large to neglect. "To put it simply, an economy growing at around 2% per year can not deal with a cut of 3.5% of GDP. The math is simple: recession, "says Barclays in its report. The team of Jim O'Neill, chairman of asset management at Goldman Sachs, believes that the final agreement will involve an adjustment of 1% -1.5% of GDP, but believes that the return on investment and improved housing sector may offset some of this effect and allow GDP growth above 2%. Again, insufficient for a drastic reduction in the unemployment rate.
Exceeding the pitfall of U.S. fiscal precipice, Europe will be the elephant in the room of the global economy. It is true that the odds of a breakup of the eurozone apocalyptic are now much more remote. Undoubtedly, the strength of the euro has surprised some of the most prominent economic gurus Paul Krugman, Willem Buiter or George Soros, for example, which ruled that the euro would be alive at this point. But the recipes applied in the eurozone are making them the major economies of the euro heart, such as France or Germany, which converge into recession in which the periphery is the most optimistic estimate only positive growth in the region 2013. There are few who expect even a new reduction of interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the first quarter from the current 0.75%.
Analysts believe that the U.S. will exceed its fiscal crisis before or after
The key, explains Jean-Michel Six, chief European economist at Standard & Poor's, past cure the problems of transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. "Since 2008, the ECB's balance sheet has more than doubled, but the growth of the money supply has remained weak," he says. This fragmentation of the monetary union and the consequent reduction of credit in some Member States have aggravated the recession. "Greater fluidity of credit flows between countries and sectors is an important condition for there to be a sustainable recovery in the euro area in the second half of 2013 and in subsequent years," says Six.
No concrete progress towards banking and fiscal union, mistrust persist and that the calendar does not help. "In Europe, 2013 will be a year fundamentally political, marked by elections in Germany and Italy and the urgent need to strengthen the stability of the euro area. It is essential to convey the message to the markets that Europe continues to build political power and establish a roadmap for banking and fiscal union, something you might see at the next European summit, "said Inversis Bank in its investment strategy for 2013.
The recent change of government in Japan may lead to a positive surprises of the year, according to the monthly report from Jim O'Neill. But this requires "decisive policy action". "A considerably weaker yen and a credible package of fiscal sustainability should prevent the economy into another deep recession and debt markets return to unravel," write analysts at Goldman Sachs.
The transmission of monetary policy is key to the recovery of the euro
But in Japan, after more than two decades trapped in a spiral of deflation, recession and banking crisis is just an anecdote in the global economy. When looking for sources that drive global growth, all eyes are on China. Investors have long been watching with fear a possible slowdown in the growth rate of the country, its growth will slow this year to 7.5%, from 9.3% in 2011. The latest data point to a rebound in industrial production and retail sales, after the break that was observed in the activity in the third quarter and, after the change of political leadership successfully carried out this year, analysts at Barclays expect a new infrastructure stimulus plan that shoot growth to 7.9% in 2013.
Beyond specific forecasts for next year, a debate began to take shape among analysts. "The big questions we ask are whether the 2013 wave of extreme monetary easing policies and quantitative easing has peaked and if the private sector credit may staging a modest recovery," said Ewen Cameron Watt, BlackRock Investment Institute, in his last report. "For now, the billions of dollars in economic stimulus employed and interest rates at record lows have failed to stimulate much credit growth and economic activity. But what if this change? "Asks.
The consequences can be extremely expansive monetary policy now beginning to be analyzed and some concern among academics. But for now, with economies that fail to resume healthy growth, no one seems in a hurry to answer those questions.
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