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La inflación baja también asusta
La moderación de los precios en la eurozona pone aún más difícil el ajuste a países como España
Alejandro Bolaños 23 MAR 2014 - 00:00 CET
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Low inflation also scares
The moderation of prices in the eurozone gets even more difficult adjustment countries like Spain
Alejandro Bolaños 23 MAR 2014 - 00:00 CET
The evil shadow of inflation has accompanied the Spanish economy since the beginning of democracy . Among the Moncloa Pacts (1977 ) highlighted the agreement between employers and unions to cool rising consumer prices , which hovered around 25% annually . Since the entry into the euro area ( 1999) , Spain was marred not doing enough to control the CPI, almost always above the 2% mark as reference the European Central Bank ( ECB). Now, after two recessions in five years and an unemployment rate above 25 % have left the domestic demand in the bones, the Spanish inflation barely off the 0 % to stand for months below the European average. But experts warn that political leadership is one of the main threats for incipient recovery. Which is it ?
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Concern in Madrid, Brussels, Frankfurt and Washington is no longer hidden . In his last speeches as European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn , has insisted that a "long period of low inflation will damage the ongoing process of rebalancing the European economy " , and has released messages increasingly urgent , Germany ( to reactivate your claim ) and the ECB ( to act ) . The warning from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) has been even more blunt .
President of European supervisor, Mario Draghi admits that low inflation is a risk, but not as threatening to trigger a new intervention , the stock - conventional measures interest rate is at 0.25% - causing a schism within the ECB Governing Council . In recent days , the governor of the Bank of Spain , Luis Maria Linde , stressed that such a small price rise brings " complications." And the effects of that low inflation tratraron last Tuesday at the meeting of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, with the top representatives of trade unions and employers .
Deflation disinflation
The main government agencies (and most analysts) insist that the meager inflation rates in the countries of the euro -negative area in Greece or Portugal are not a prelude to deflation, as that which followed the Great Depression last century , or which , recursively, overlooks the Japanese economy for two decades . Deflation , a persistent and widespread price declines associated with weak demand , further discourage consumption ( purchases waiting for another price drop is postponed ) , which is eroding profit margins and result in less investment, less economic activity and unemployment.
The Commission and the IMF pressed unequivocally the ECB to act
To ward off the fear of deflation , the experts labeled the recent price developments , which have been climbing about 3 % annually in mid-2012 to be around 0% in several countries in the euro , as disinflation , another term for feed the technical jargon of the crisis.
That disinflation has several roots. Part of the slowdown is due to the comparison with periods when prices rose by the impact of fiscal measures , such as the rise in VAT in Spain in September 2012 . While tax surcharges are ( were approved increases in VAT in Italy and France ) are more content and sporadic since the European Commission lifted the foot brake austerity.
After the last Governing Council, ECB President added further explanations. Draghi said that the adjustments (wage devaluation , budget cuts ) engaged in those who walk most troubled countries ( Spain , Greece, Ireland or Portugal) affect inflation , but that hardly explains why the CPI in Germany only rises 1 % . Draghi said that "two thirds of moderation in inflation since the beginning of 2012 can be explained by energy prices are lower " and also influences the appreciation of the euro , which lowers the cost of imported goods and services .
Rajoy and Linde assume that recovery is complicated
What's more, the price variation of services in the euro area, which tend to be more inflationary behavior, barely 1% . And the core index , which excludes fresh food and energy products , are at similar levels.
Further, to the ECB itself believes inflation remain low for some time ( spend 1% in 2014 to 1.5% in 2016). They are three years below the goal of price stability the central bank ( 2% ) . The supervisor argued that as the trend is growing , and the betting markets for the long term ( ten years) that exceed 2% should not act . But that same outcome is what has set off alarms in other areas.
Price suppression , a recipe for Spain
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European support ( which crystallized in the banking bailout and the promise of ECB bond buying ) to Spain in the worst of the crisis in mid 2012, was paved with a push budget adjustments and reforms that further weakened consumption. The diagnosis made by Brussels and Madrid is that in times of easy credit and the housing bubble, Spain lost competitiveness , its products and services were made too expensive compared to its European partners .
Following this reasoning, fed to narrow imbalances in the boom years , giving the face in the crisis (more private and public debt , public and external deficits ) , we must bring down the Spanish products and services . "It's a slow and painful adjustment ," said Akos Valentinyi researcher CESifo , a leading German think tanks , earlier this month in the annual report of the center in Madrid. Wage restraint , encouraged by labor reform, and the impact of budget adjustments in household income has been transferred to consumer prices and the overall economy . It's what Daniele Antonucci , an analyst at Morgan Stanley, baptized as "good deflation " in a note on Friday disseminated Spain .
It is also what the Secretary of State for Economy , Fernando Jiménez Latorre , referred to analyze ten days ago the CPI for February, which marked a breakthrough zero ( 0 %) of the Spanish inflation. " It is a positive development because it improves the differential with the euro area and facilitates the continued wage moderation . That has a favorable impact on the competitiveness of domestic production and is a stimulus to exports , "summarized .
Great sacrifices to a very slow adjustment
In addition to concentrating the bill for the crisis on workers in troubled countries , this adjustment path is an increasingly difficult hurdle to overcome . Because prices fall (or stagnate ) in Spain , Greece and Portugal, but I just go up in the core countries of the euro. Low inflation can be good for Spain , but much less if only picks up in Germany (1 %).
luis tinoco
CESifo researchers estimate that , despite the sacrifices of the past four years the Spanish economy has become cheaper just - as measured by the GDP deflator - a fifth of what is urged against Germany between 2002 and 2007. In a comprehensive analysis of the consequences of low inflation , Angel Ubide the Peterson Institute for International Economics , notes that when the German economy faced a similar process of wage moderation to regain competitiveness after unification ( between 1998 and 2007) had the advantage of the most dynamic countries in this period , such as Spain , did record a significant inflation above 3 % annually.
Ubide calculated that if countries in the process of adjustment ( Spain , Portugal, Italy, Ireland , Greece , Cyprus, and to a lesser extent, France ) recorded an inflation rate of 1% , a value that only now reached the French economy and thanks to VAT increase -the rest of the eurozone, with Germany leading the way, should reach annual price increases of 3.2% to leave the eurozone average about 2% chasing BCE. "That would be double inflation than countries that now have no competitive problems in the first decade of the euro had . It is unrealistic , "says Ubide .
Waiting for the German consumer
In theory , the German economy combines several elements to pro - Piciar takeoff domestic demand , and with it, consumer prices . Its unemployment rate is at record lows , which should lead to wage increases . Public accounts are in balance, the private sector credit is easy and cheap . But refuses to budge on the model that has led to this situation, on saving (to the detriment of investment) and the foreign sector . Because if the settings have been peripheral countries to reverse its trade deficit , Germany has continued to strengthen its bulging current account surplus , which pushes the external balance of the euro area to record levels. And of course , helps to appreciate the euro , one of the reasons of disinflation.
" Between 2011 and 2013 , the German private consumption grew at 1.3% , double that of 2000 and 2007," analysts oppose La Caixa Research, in a recent report. The research service entity points to the consistent improvement of household disposable income, low level of debt and the slow decline in their savings rate to conclude that " all elements are ready " to give " a push definitive German domestic demand in the coming years. "
The setting will be " slow and painful " for Spain , warns a German think tank
HSBC economists added that even before the entry into force of the extension of the minimum wage law in 2015, the German chemical industry has just agreed a wage increase of 3.5%, while the public sector unions are demanding increase of 7 %. "There will be price increases, albeit from very low levels," nuance .
But while the German consumer is decided, " deflation or low inflation, painful in indebted countries , resulting in a smaller setting prices compared to other countries of the euro" , as said Reza Moghadam , director of the IMF for Europe , the blog of the Fund.
More debt, more cuts
" Disinflation is very costly for the peripheral countries , makes the problem of sustainability of debt much more complicated ," said Guntram Wolff , director of the research center Bruegel , told a group of reporters in Brussels . The price increases occurring now fatten the current revenues , facilitating the payment of what was requested in the past. But that crutch is almost nonexistent now , nor helps increase tax revenues.
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The other way to ease the pressure of debt (public and private) and tackling the deficit is growth. The theory, the letter says that the price adjustment and competitiveness gains should allow progress in this way. But , with low inflation across the euro zone, the sacrifice will pay much less than expected.
In Spain , the debt deleveraging has barely begun : the reduction in the liability of companies is almost completely compensated by the increase in public sector borrowing . And with such low rates of inflation and growth , the process will be very slow . Also, if the scenario does not change , stop the increase in public debt will require more austerity , which means that ( negative ) for economic activity and employment.
All roads lead to Frankfurt
IMF 's conclusion is blunt: "You can also have too much of a good thing, such as low inflation , which is now acting to the detriment of the recovery , especially in the most vulnerable countries." After swiping a criticism that the ECB does not strive well when inflation is above 2% when below , veiled Fund staff complained to supervisor euro similar to those given by other central banks steps to intervene in the economy : from the granting of a banking liquidity to make loans to companies and households ( as did the Bank of England) to the purchase of assets, public or private, for mobilizing and cheaper credit ( the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan ) .
With German CPI at 1% , is much more difficult to regain competitiveness
Draghi received with undisguised distress message Fund because evidence limits the breadth of the ECB , the only central bank in which the Governing Council have a say governors from 18 different countries. "It's a very difficult issue to resolve , economic incentives will divide the European countries , and would have enormous political will to deal with this division. Creditor countries such as Germany, prefer high interest rates , that pay their savings , and low inflation . And debtors like Spain , want low interest rates and higher European inflation in the 2% ECB to facilitate deleveraging. The ECB seems to opt for a compromise , "says Rafael Domenech , chief economist at BBVA Research Developed Economies .
Domenech ponders the ECB " is the European institution that has had a more decisive role in the crisis." But he agrees with the diagnosis : "To help the recovery of the eurozone and , in particular, the Spanish economy should be much more active ." For now, Draghi , either because he did not have to, or because it relies on the recovery step that opens, choose to hold their breath .
Japanese lessons
When a slight increase in the price of a haircut draws attention of media such as the Financial Times, is that something strange happens : the peeling issue will increase by 8 % since April. What is unique is that the chain QB House had hairdressers charging the same two decades . Or maybe not , if the price is in yen ( 1,000 yen specifically , about seven euros to change ) , and this is Japan.
The dreaded deflation , persistent and widespread fall in prices is associated to recurrent what ails the Japanese economy since the nineties of the last century form . But , as described by the economist Ubide Angel , is more accurate to portray this period as a long period of stagnant prices, anemic consumer credit and caged in zombie banks , to the reaction of the authorities was never enough. Fertile ground for recurrent financial crises (such as 1997 , or 2007 ) was translated into episodes of deflation.
" The eurozone is a single negative shock entering deflation " summarized a few days ago Martin Wolf , columnist for the Financial Times header . IMF economists parallels abound in Japan , remembering that at that stage the long-term expectations always indicated a sufficient inflation, the guide also now for the European Central Bank. But that shorter-term , the signals were very different . " In the euro area , inflation expectations to two or three years show a downward trend and are close to 1 % ," says Rafael Domenech , BBVA .
Other lessons are outside the agenda of countries like Spain . For although it is true that Japan has not reached the levels of prosperity promised by the end of the eighties , its unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3% and 5% , its huge public debt is largely financed with the savings generated by external surpluses , and productivity continues at high levels.
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