スペインのBBVA銀行調査部によると、金融(銀行)危機で失った雇用を回復するのには、2025年まで係ると予想
El BBVA cree que el empleo no volverá al nivel precrisis hasta 2025
El servicio de estudios de la entidad apuesta por estrechar los márgenes empresariales
Calcula que España incumplió el déficit en 2013, aunque se modera su impacto en la economía
Augura que es posible que el país llegue a crecer un 1,5% a lo largo de este año
Más consumo para sostener la recuperación del crecimiento
A.M / Agencias Madrid 18 MAR 2014 - 20:28 CET
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BBVA believes that employment will not return to pre-crisis level until 2025
The research service bet entity narrow profit margins
Estimated that Spain breached the deficit in 2013, although its impact on the economy is moderating
Predicts that the country may come to grow by 1.5% over this year
More consumption to sustain growth recovery
A.M. / Agencies Madrid 18 MAR 2014 - 20:28 CET
The government has declared an end to the crisis and the beginning of recovery with nearly six million unemployed , 26% of the working population , but weak growth rates indicate that Spain will wait at least a decade to recover the level job you had before the first recession . Services BBVA studies calculated the Spanish economy will take until 2025 to recover the jobs destroyed , and that on the projected growth of GDP of 2.5% and an increase in productivity per worker of 0.6 % , while the euro area in 2017 and reached the United States in 2014. The head of BBVA in Spain, Miguel Cardoso , chief economist said at a seminar organized by the Economic Journalists Association of Newspapers ( FIPA ) labor reform that job creation requires lower rates of growth than before ( traditionally called for February 1 % ) , but still , the output of the crisis seems long .
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Cardoso stressed the need to further improve the competitiveness of enterprises for exports to grow more , while recognizing that the profit margins of the Spanish companies are growing faster than in the rest of the EU- 12, while wages and increased productivity are the factors that have contributed to improve the competitiveness. "These higher-margin business in Spain are due to the competition in some sectors , such as services ," said the expert, and predicted that wage moderation will continue this year by way of replacement employment : fired workers are repositioned in lower paid jobs .
Can you talk to the crisis and early recovery while the unemployment rate will remain above 20 % ? Secretary of State of Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, considered in the same forum that "it is a matter of semantics ," but admitted that the jobs recovery " will take time " , but did not specify if agreed in a decade. "The important thing ," he said, " are the trends " rather than long-term forecasts , and in his opinion " Spain is able to reach levels before the legislature." It culminated in what time frame .
Objective failed deficit
In fact, the head of the BBVA studies noted that " it seems that has not been met the 2013 deficit target " of 6.5% of GDP , but this is expected to be located at 6.7% of GDP . Although appreciated that it can be assumed that the fiscal imbalance is having less and less impact on economic activity , which, in his opinion, " is to feel optimistic."
Another challenge is to generate greater business competitiveness , partly through a continued wage moderation and better regulation. Although , he also pointed out that Spanish companies are the most are winning margin so it would be convenient to reduce them in some sectors. At this point , said " service reform would be highly desirable " and that in the case of the energy sector could gain competitiveness "with a much lower cost of energy."
Moreover, Cardoso noted that while the European economy is no longer observed systemic risk is present the risk of deflation . However, Cardoso noted that this risk is 7.5% , which is " a relatively low level , but high in terms of time series " , which could only increase the chances of a scenario of deflation if monetary tightening is given recession and decline in expectations in the eurozone.
ECB Performance
However, the chief economist for BBVA Research Spain has warned that " the ECB would be good if perceived risks of deflation , be proactive and take action to dismiss these scenarios." "It requires a much more proactive ," he added .
In the chapter on the good news, Cardoso said there are major uncertainties in Spain and, therefore , that there is more buoyant forecast investment, which will lead to a translation of exports to domestic demand.
Also argued that it sees a credit enhancement , although not likely to see an increase of the same in the coming years , in the short term because the amortization of debts will be prioritized . However, Cardoso has assured that it is already seeing a growth of new credit to businesses and consumer .
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