スペインの税制改革専門家委員会の付加価値税値上げの提案に、財務大臣のCristobal Montoroは反対し、経済大臣のLuis de Guindo と欧州行政委員会は賛成の意向。
Moncloa abre el pulso de los impuestos
La batalla Montoro-Guindos se vive al margen del informe de los expertos
Hacienda se resiste a tocar más el IVA pero Economía y Bruselas presionan
La financiación autonómica, batalla de otoño
Carlos E. Cué Madrid 19 MAR 2014 - 00:00 CET
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Moncloa opens pulse taxes
The battle Guindos Montoro-lives outside the expert report
Treasury refuses to play plus VAT but Economy and Brussels press
The regional funding, autumn battle
Carlos E. Cue Madrid 19 MAR 2014 - 00:00 CET
The expert report on tax reform , introduced last week , is a kind of lure, matching various members and leaders of the PP Government consulted. "Not the government project " have made it clear the Vice President and Minister of Finance. All respondents agree: the real battle is on the other hand, just started, is not public and it will mark all the political year . It's war between different sectors of government and the PP, and especially , as usual, between Christopher and Luis De Guindos Montoro , to see what has really reform the Executive before the summer.
But this time things are different : Montoro, the most political of the two, with the backing of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and PP heavyweights like Javier Arenas is getting stronger internally , while Guindos, the technocrat who has its direct relationship with Rajoy was his chief economic adviser for years, and the strength to be the negotiator in Brussels , already has his sights set on the presidency of the Eurogroup to which it aspires .
moreDOWNLOADABLE Full report of the experts in tax reformA tax reform without tax reliefGuindos see in tax reform as a lever for economic improvementThe lowering of the income tax and the abolition of tax benefits the rich"We designed a scheme that can be hard to take "
Montoro takes your project , oblivious to the reform proposed by the experts, with great secrecy, something that has troubled and troublesome to other sectors. But the point of the battle between the two wings of government , pressured by a commitment to Brussels, this is Guindos , and another policy that thinks more about the electoral consequences , ie Montoro, are clear.
Brussels , experts and make a clear commitment Guindos : in exchange for lower income tax raise VAT incorporating many products now on the reduced rate (10 % ) to the general ( 21%). Actually that was the battle from the beginning of the term : VAT against income tax . Montoro won at first , rose touched income tax and VAT no . But he finally yielded to the evidence and end up the two , but now the government boasts that resisted pressure to change that much downgraded unemployment benefits than it did.
Montoro refuses again to raise VAT . And even though Rajoy promised publicly on several occasions, and that was the commitment to Brussels, that the reform would be in March, Treasury has pursued a strategy much appreciated by the President : delay the decision several months.
Rajoy Montoro and want to save time because they believe in their favor . For two reasons . First, the longer you go , the weaker the European Commission, and output . Olli Rehn , the commissioner key , old nightmare for Spain , and seems more focused on his campaign in Finland in order to become MEP in pressuring Spain .
And second, the longer you go , create Montoro, more to retrieve the collection of VAT and that Spain will have more room to try to negotiate with Brussels a less steep climb . Trade unions and employers and the Government to ask each climb , each product takes the small stretch of 10% to 21 % to pass , you look in great detail to not sink to that sector as has happened with cultural performances . Rajoy accepted as Brussels says that the collection of VAT in Spain is very low. But trust that rise slightly in recent months -Montoro has boasted of data from January and February , to have to raise a minimum.
The Minister of Finance and Rajoy wants to extend the deadlines to June
The times are getting longer . In April a first report will probably be presented to Cabinet before the European elections, where the good news will be given income tax downs . But key decisions , and the bad news has to give, come later . Spain , through Guindos, Brussels is committed to a reform that not only lower but not raise revenue , and what is lost must be offset by income tax . Messages arriving from Brussels indicate that there is not room to lower taxes.
If you want to speed up long periods, Montoro has time . Sources of PP in Congress explained that the project shall be processed in parallel to the Budget 2015 , the will condition much , since income determines the public - by spending that could speed up even until September, but most likely is to be sent to Parliament before the summer.
The internal pulse is intense. And it seems Guindos already lost an important battle : the deduction for housing. Brussels pushing to eliminate retroactively and he also believes Montoro but would be devastating politically in an election year like 2015, when the reform will enter into force . And Rajoy has proved him right . Behind this deduction is almost six million taxpayers, so it is a very sensitive issue . Rajoy did a lot of campaigning with her. Zapatero removed to the home purchased from 2011 . Rajoy 's recovered but only lasted six months : pressure from Brussels was forced to remove it again.
Brussels launches the message that there is no room to lower taxes
Of course, holds for homes purchased before 2011, ie in the real estate boom. They are about 3,500 million euros lost by the state and communities each year. And that is what you want removed and Montoro Brussels refuses . The argument to be used to convince the European Commission is that this deduction slowly going to disappear, since new housing for no longer exists .
What seems more likely at this time is a very important reduction of deductions for pension funds, very high in Spain . There are also giving battle and politically Guindos is somewhat less sensitive than the deduction for housing, although it is not easy.
The only thing that is clear is that reform will not look nearly anything proposed by the experts. In fact in some parts of the document PP got sick . Others say it will happen as with pensions:
first a report highly controversial experts, after the Government makes its own a little softer reform and thus mitigates the criticism is presented . Montoro is on it but the battle has not yet been resolved.
The regional funding, autumn battle
Cristobal Montoro will be very clear political player of the year. His ministry, the greatest of all powers by multiple occupation in fact some believe that functions as a de facto economic Vice although Rajoy has ever wanted to give that category - not only got their hands on the most sensitive political reform, of taxes. Upon presentation of your project, with figures in hand how it will affect the share of taxes that takes autonomy , Montoro work becoming even more complex negotiation : the reform of the financing autonomic , who wants to start in the fall and have ready before year end.
It is actually the only card that counts the Government of Mariano Rajoy to try to soften the territorial tension dominating the Spanish policy. The environment minister admitted that the negotiations will be very complex because it has never made a finance reform without putting much money on the table so that everyone wins. And this time the Treasury does not have that money anymore, so no need to waste . The negotiation will be based not so much on the current distribution , because the Treasury has no money, but in future projections, promises to increase the autonomy of revenue in the coming years , when the situation improves . Politically it is an impossible balance and even within the PP has already been significant tensions and Rajoy and have managed to placate Montoro .
Some regional barons , particularly those that are afraid of being harmed by a reform , such as Extremadura José Antonio Monagas have made reaching Rajoy is crazy battle and open the doors of a key election like 2015. Injured barons will be hard to sell it to their constituents. Montoro has already broken their promise to present in December fiscal balances and tax reform in March . This also could be delayed, but the government says it will not.
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