スペインの売れ残りの新築住宅は、2009年には、688'044件だったのが、2013年には18'9%減少して557'450件に。
El sector todavía estima un excedente de 557.450 viviendas a finales de 2013
Solo una de cada cinco casas del stock se vendió durante la crisis
Nadie se atreve a aventurar cuándo se absorberá toda la oferta, ya que depende del empleo y del crédito
Existen ya algunas comunidades autónomas donde el volumen de la oferta es menos preocupante
Raquel Díaz Guijarro
Madrid
26-03-2014 11:32
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The sector still estimates a surplus of 557 450 housing units in 2013
Only one in five houses sold stock during the crisis
No one dares to venture when all supplies are absorbed, as it depends on employment and credit
There are already some regions where the volume of supply is less worrisome
Raquel Diaz Guijarro
Madrid
26-03-2014 11:32
When the housing bubble burst and discovered how big the volume of unsold new homes or rent , there were many experts who predicted the end of the crisis would depend on the speed with which that bulging surplus was absorbed almost all stats were estimated at around 700,000 homes.
Now, almost five years after the peak of the housing stock is reached ( in 2009) , the figures show that it has reduced the excess brick pretty smoothly. During this period , he was able to sell only one in five homes that whole deal , since according to the latest report from the employer of manufacturers of construction products Cepco , Spain has grown from 688,044 new homes for sale in the 2009 a total of 557,450 late last year , 18.9 % less.
Is it for this reason that the recession lasted longer in Spain or the crisis that has prevented sell homes faster leftover from the boom ? Considering the distances , it's almost like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg.
And it is at this point , we should remember that only when the prices of homes began to lose rapidly ( from 2011 ) , was first detected a slight recovery in sales . Indeed, many analysts believe that if the bank , now largely proprietary measure of these homes , had applied before heavy rebates to homes in portfolio , perhaps the restructuring of the sector would have been less painful and closing the credit tap had been left feel much less.
However , in all honesty , some people also said that the situation of some banks was so delicate that nothing could have been avoided by selling its real estate stock at bargain prices while back.
The purists are of the opinion that no more houses sold quickly because they simply have not been given the circumstances prior to the crisis had boosted the real estate sector : good and stable job prospects and, above all , abundant credit and cheap.
Anyway , the last year of recession, 2013 , agrees to be the year in which has accelerated the decline of the stock . Thus, while in 2010 remained virtually stagnant in 2011 fell by just over 6,000 homes , up 0.9 %. In 2012 , 43,000 households were counted in less over, a cut of 6.3%. And finally , in 2013 , a rate of something more meaningful sales seen since the stock was able to reduce a total of 80,605 households, 12.6% in relative terms. In other words, of the 130,594 houses stock that were sold during the years of the crisis , 61% were acquired last just year on the last recession when Spain abandoned the negative growth of its economy and the data labor market have slowed their colossal damage.
Recovery zone
How long that will take to drain more than half a million homes that still make up the stock for sale or rent ? No one dares to venture to the missing years absorb the supply , because much will depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic situation (income and employment) and, of course , whether or not gets funding. But the truth is that in some very specific areas of the stock figures and begin to be less worrisome .
This is the case of Andalusia , where his surplus has gone from 114,147 households in 2009 to 71,386 at the end of last year, which represents a decrease of 37.4 %. In setting Canary slashing 40% during the same period and we are only 25,356 homes that do not find a buyer in the archipelago. Catalonia is another of the communities where the supply of new housing is now 18.7% lower than four years ago.
Madrid and Valencia round out this trio of five regions where it has reduced the volume of homes for sale, with a cut of 28.9 % and 21.65% , respectively. That it is precisely in these areas where more is being absorbed the huge real estate is very positive, as it coincides with the major market areas . Among the five account for 58 % of the surplus .
Moreover, in absolute terms there are areas with fairly reasonable stock levels , such as the Balearic Islands, with just 12,600 homes , Cantabria, where Cepco posted an offer of 1,689 flats , Extremadura has only 794 houses in stock ; Galicia recorded 28,200 , Navarre and the Basque Country 2200 , 17,777 . On the opposite side , Castilla y León, Castilla La Mancha , Murcia and La Rioja are situated, with still large surpluses .
The 39 % think it is good time to buy
The Look & Find real estate network has developed a survey that concludes that 39 % of citizens believe that now is a good time to buy a home. However, another 35 % believe it is not yet the right time to carry out such acquisitions .
Meanwhile, the remaining 26% is waiting to see how the market in the coming months to make a decision or another.
The firm said yesterday that gradually keeps growing the number of people who think that is a good time to buy a home after price cuts that have taken place over recent years. So , 2014 is shaping up as a year of opportunity for the purchase of a home, both to live in it, as to acquire a purpose investment .
The latest data published by the INE indicate a rebound in housing purchases and especially the second hand , a market that is emerging to be the type of property that has experienced the largest price adjustment. Furthermore, according to department statistics analysis Look & Find, housing prices have declined on average in about 35 % since 2006 , when it reached its highest price and downs that have been experienced in the last quarter and are not very significant , something customers increasingly perceive more clearly and makes the time to invest again in the real estate sector has come. The survey results show that if the money was available for purchase or at least give an important request a not very high mortgage, home purchase would be a major investment options entry .
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