日本の景気回復への安倍晋三首相のプログラム政策
OPINIÓN
La promesa de la ‘Abeconomía’
Japón está llevando a cabo un programa de políticas monetarias, fiscales y estructurales
Joseph E. Stiglitz 9 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
OPINION
The promise of 'Abeconomía'
Japan is carrying out a program of monetary, fiscal and structural
Joseph E. Stiglitz 9 ABR 2013 - 00:00 CET
The program of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the country's economic recovery has led to increased domestic confidence. But to what extent can the "Abeconomía" take credit?
Interestingly, seen up close, the performance of Japan over the past decade suggests little reason for the existence of a persistent bear market. In fact, in terms of productivity growth, Japan has done very well since the beginning of the new century. With a shrinking workforce, the standard estimate for Japan in 2012, ie before the Abe-economy-was that employee output per worker grew at an annual rate of 3.08%. This growth is much more robust than the U.S., where output per worker grew by only 0.37% last year, and much stronger than that of Germany, where it declined by 0.25%.
However, as many Japanese appreciate correctly the Abe-economy can only help the country's recovery. Abe is doing what many economists (myself included) have been calling in the U.S. and Europe: a comprehensive program involving monetary, fiscal and structural. Abe compares this approach to support three arrows, if the holding separately, can be bent each, if holds them together, it can bend no.
The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, comes with a wealth of experience gained, first in the Ministry of Finance, and then as president of the Asian Development Bank. During the East Asian crisis of the late 1990s, saw first-hand the failure of traditional recipes promoted by the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund. Since you are not married to the obsolete doctrines of bankers central bank, Kuroda is committed to reversing chronic deflation in Japan, setting an inflation target of 2%.
Deflation increases the debt burden of real (inflation-adjusted), as well as real interest rates. Although there is little evidence of the importance that may be small changes in real interest rates, the effect of even a slight deflation in real debt, year after year, can be significant. Kuroda's stance has led to a weakening of the exchange rate of the yen, which makes Japanese products more competitive. This simply reflects the reality of the interdependence of monetary policy: if the Federal Reserve policy of U.S. quantitative easing known as the dollar weakens, others have to respond to prevent excessive appreciation of their currencies. Someday it may be that we achieve closer coordination of monetary policies worldwide, but for now, for Japan it was reasonable to respond, albeit belatedly, to events elsewhere.
Monetary policy would have been more effective in the U.S. if he had devoted more attention to the blockades on credit: for example, the problems of refinancing homeowners, including lower interest rates, or lack of access the financing of small and medium enterprises. One hopes that Japan's monetary policy will focus on these critical issues.
But Abe has two more arrows in his quiver policy. Critics who argue that fiscal stimulus in Japan failed in the past, considering that only led to waste unnecessary infrastructure investments-make two mistakes. First, is the hypothetical case: how had played the Japanese economy had there been no fiscal stimulus? Given the magnitude of the contraction in credit supply following the financial crisis of late 1990, it is not surprising that public spending could not restore growth. The situation would have been much worse without that expense, in the way that happened, unemployment never exceeded 5.8%, and during the throes of the global financial crisis, reached 5.5%. Second, anyone visiting Japan recognizes the benefits of their investments in infrastructure (U.S. could learn a valuable lesson in this issue).
The real challenge will be to design the third arrow, which Abe refers to as "growth." This includes policies to restructure the economy, to improve productivity and increase workforce participation, especially of women.
Some speak of "deregulation", a word that has rightly fallen into disrepute in the wake of the global financial crisis. In fact, Japan making a mistake back on environmental regulations, or their health and safety regulations.
What is needed is the proper timing. In some areas, will require more active participation of the Government to ensure more effective competition. However, in many areas where reform is needed, such as in hiring practices, changes are needed in the ways of the private sector, not government regulations. Abe can only set the tone, can not dictate the results. For example, asked companies to increase the salaries of their workers, and many companies are planning to offer extra pay higher than usual at the end of the fiscal year in March.
Government efforts to increase productivity in the services sector are likely to be particularly important. For example, Japan is in a good position to take advantage of synergies between improved health sector and its industry-notch in the field of medical device development.
Policies aimed at the family, along with changes in work practices of companies can reinforce behavior change, leading to greater (and more effective) participation of female labor. While Japanese students classified at high levels in international comparisons, the general lack of proficiency in English, the lingua franca of international commerce and science, Japan is a disadvantage in the global market. Increases in investment in research and education tend to yield high dividends.
There are many reasons to believe that Japan's strategy to rejuvenate its economy will succeed: the country has strong institutions that provide benefits, has a well-educated workforce with excellent technical skills and behaviors sensible design, and is in the region dynamic (What's unique dynamic region?) in the world. Suffering from lower inequality compared to many advanced industrial countries (although it has more inequality than Canada and the northern European countries), and has had a commitment to preserving the environment that is of longer standing. If the comprehensive agenda that has drawn Abe runs well, confidence is growing vindicate today. In fact, Japan could become one of the few rays of light in which the contrary is a bleak landscape of more advanced countries.
Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate in economics, is professor at Columbia University.
© Project Syndicate, 2013.
Translated from English by Rocío L. Barrientos.
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