不況下の消費下落による今年の初めに減衰さ
La recesión se atenúa en el inicio del año por la menor caída del consumo
El PIB se deja un 0,5%, tres décimas menos que al cierre de 2012
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 23 ABR 2013 - 20:54 CET
The recession is attenuated at the beginning of the year due to lower consumption fall
The GDP is down 0.5%, three points less than the end of 2012
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 23 ABR 2013 - 20:54 CET
The first preview of how the economy was starting the year off right to the Government. And it comes back. Because the Bank of Spain expects GDP fell by 0.5% from the final quarter of 2012. It is an estimate that ruins the prognosis that the government of Rajoy kept (Spanish GDP to 0.5% that would be left around 2013) until a few weeks ago. It is also a fact that does fit with the new unofficial prediction that aerates the Economy Minister Luis de Guindos. After grinding, the Government believes that the recession now discounted up to 1.5% of GDP this year.
The new Executive forecast, which will become official on Friday, is in line with the experts and international organizations. Thereby also reported yesterday the Bank of Spain: the second recession in four years have touched down in the last months of 2012 (the quarterly rate then fell by 0.8%), but "the Spanish economy continued the pattern of contraction activity, albeit at a more subdued pace. " The almost unanimous prediction is that the recession will continue attemperated along this year to lead to a minimum in step growth from 2013 to 2014.
Still, the quarterly report of the Bank of Spain, which puts the decline at 2% when the comparison is annual, is full of caution, and not just because yet to be endorsed by the National Statistics Institute (INE), the next week. The research service highlights the supervisory body that the first quarter compared to one of the worst stages of the crisis, only comparable to the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
The supervisor notifies
compared to
one of the worst
crises stages
The slowdown in the decline in domestic demand, according to the accounts of the Bank of Spain, is very noticeable in the case of private consumption and imports, has much to do with "the reversal of temporary impact factors" in the final months 2012: the abolition of the Christmas bonus for civil servants, or the collapse of household expenditure after the advance purchases to circumvent the VAT hike, in effect since last September.
The experts of the Bank of Spain forecast a quarterly decline of private consumption much lighter (-0.3%) than that recorded in the last months of 2012. Something similar anticipated investment in capital goods (-0.4% vs. -5.4% for the quarter that ended last year), but not for construction investment, which would maintain a very similar rate of contraction (- 2.8%).
A lack of data for public consumption March, the Bank of Spain believes that domestic demand would have fallen by 0.8% in the first quarter of this year, much less (-2%) than at the end of 2012. The improvement in demand is also seen in imports, much less weaker than in the previous quarter (when the fall was around 5%).
Lowering less purchases from the rest of the world, also lower the contribution to growth from the external sector (just three tenths). Exports improved somewhat, but the recovery is weak, yet burdened by stagnation in the euro zone. And both private consumption and exports, the Bank of Spain warns that the "qualitative indicators" reveal a worsening in March.
The Bank of Spain notes that the "decline in household income, the marked weakness of the labor market, the high level of household debt and maintaining strict financial conditions" will continue to weigh on consumption in the coming months . The supervisor again noted that interest rates on loans to SMEs and household consumption are much higher than the average of the euro.
With the main driver of demand and budget adjustments seizing up, employment prospects are no better: the supervisor believes that the destruction of jobs barely slowed in the first quarter (-4.7% to -4 , 5% annual rate).
The supervisor noted that the recession and prolonged labor reform "wage moderation" but asking the government reforms (in markets for services and products) to ensure that "is transferred in its entirety to the prices".
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