国際通貨基金は、日本のように、インフレ懸念に躊躇しないで、経済刺激政策を取るべきだと主張
El FMI pide que el miedo a la inflación no frene los planes de estímulo
El Fondo analiza en un informe la política agresiva anunciada por Japón
Alerta del riesgo de complacencia de los bancos centrales tras mantener los precios bajo control
Sandro Pozzi Nueva York 9 ABR 2013 - 15:30 CET
The IMF calls the fear of inflation does not slow stimulus plans
The Fund in a report analyzing the aggressive policy announced by Japan
Alert risk of complacency after central banks keep prices under control
Sandro Pozzi New York 9 ABR 2013 - 15:30 CET
Christine Lagarde gave this past weekend his blessing from the International Monetary Fund to the newly adopted aggressive monetary maneuver by Japan. Considers that these interventions via unconventional help the growth of the advanced economies, and the global rebound. But he warned that the strategy may have "unintended consequences" such as inflation, so complacency would be a big mistake. Despite the fear that's believed that cheap money bubble, a fear expressed by the emerging countries, the IMF is clear that at the moment is better to give rein to stimuli.
In the words of Lagarde in China is now an agency report prepared for the summit next spring, under a revealing title: The dog that does not bark. Then wondered if inflation is muzzled or simply that the animal is asleep. There is also a fear, because with the money printing machine can reduce unemployment, but can do so at the cost of overheating the economy and raise prices.
The Federal Reserve said again three weeks ago after its last meeting that inflation remains contained. There are economists who argue that the stability of inflation during the Great Recession reflects success in setting objectives for the development of prices. There are other rigidities in the labor market, such as salaries, according to the IMF explaining why inflation hardly moved over the years.
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In the long term, the expectation of the IMF is that inflation in the advanced economies remains "firm" around these objectives. Ensures even higher prices will remain stable as the economic recovery will gain force. "It is unlikely that the dog will bark," experts say. Moreover, says the fear of a rise in inflation should not prevent monetary authorities to do their job.
"Any temporary overstimulation have only small effects on inflation," repeated the document, so the IMF believes "muzzle must not be removed." The Fund suggests that the relationship between inflation and unemployment was mutating over the past four decades due to the independence of central banks in defining and implementing its policies. "To preserve that independence is key to keeping inflation under control."
But as the managing director insists the body, that central banks have strengthened their credibility in maintaining stable prices is no cause for complacency. That, according to the report rapporteurs would be a mistake. The imbalances in the economy are there and remember that today the containment of inflation coexists with high unemployment rate. " The IMF has in a week revising its growth prospects.
Christine Lagarde said on Sunday, without going into specific figures, that a substantial part of the global economy "is better now than a year ago." He spoke of that growth takes force, including in the U.S.. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, however, said last night that the U.S. economy is far from recovery to an acceptable level.
"The economy is significantly stronger than four years ago, but conditions are clearly far from where we'd all like to be," he said in his speech, in another sign that monetary stimulus will continue in the U.S.. Tomorrow publishes the minutes of the last meeting, during which they discussed the risk of the current strategy.
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