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市場は、欧州中央銀行が、経済刺激のために、金利を1%以下に下げるかを期待
Los mercados esperan ahora un estímulo del BCE
El Banco Central decidirá el jueves si baja los tipos por debajo del 1%
Markets now expect the ECB stimulus
The Central Bank will decide on Thursday whether low rates below 1%
Mars Amanda Madrid 2 JUL 2012 - 00:34 CET
The Central Bank will decide on Thursday whether low rates below 1%
Mars Amanda Madrid 2 JUL 2012 - 00:34 CET
Europe has returned to control fire, the summit last week gave more concrete steps and determined than usual to calm the markets and save the beleaguered euro project. But meanwhile, the crisis continues, the economic weakness persists in the euro area club, the money flows between banks and the European Central Bank (ECB), guardian of inflation, it seems more open than ever to lower the rates interest below 1% today and placed in the lowest level in the history of the common currency.
One of the ways to revive an ailing economy. Most investors give for granted this reduction, a turning point for an institution rather timid when it comes to giving real snip at the price of money.
The Bloomberg survey of 27 economists estimated that the European body will decide at its monthly meeting on Thursday reduced a quarter point, to leave at 0.75%, although the forecast of economists at Barclays raises the reduction in the medium point, until it was at 0.5%, which significantly lastraría the value of the euro, according to this bank.
Also often produce Reuters poll shows a very conclusive result: 48 of the 71 experts surveyed rely on the rebate. And the ECB's chief economist, Peter Praet, paid these expectations simply by saying in an interview in the German edition of Financial Times that it is still obvious, that there is nothing in the doctrine of agency that prevents leave Frankfurt rates below this 1%.
Far from the U.S. and Japan
Despite the historically low, that 1% is still far in the price of money from the U.S. (0.25%), Japan (0.1%) or UK (0.5%). "The guys should come down to 0%, would be a great stimulus plan and a very important for one trillion euros is in mortgages in Spain, would save 10,000 million," says financial expert Jose Ignacio Crespo.
Citigroup strategist Jose Luis Martinez Campuzano believes that Mario Draghi governing body on Thursday approved a quarter-point cut and the Euribor, the benchmark price of mortgages should also fall. "We must not forget that the financial system is also a function of the European Central Bank and inflation expectations are moderate, so do not have grounds to do so," he says.
In his speech after the last council, the pattern of the ECB forecast that inflation rates tend to be above 2% in the euro area for the remainder of 2012-in May was 2.4% - and the forecasts were anchored in line with the bank's target of keeping the rate of price increases of around 2% over the medium term.
The European Central Bank has shifted more in recent months to open domestic liquidity to the banking-that is, open the tap of cheap credit to secure resources to the entities and hence rely on credit flow to citizens, and aim at a reduction of borrowing costs as aggressively as in the United States.
Bad manager type
"The ECB is the best time to save critical moments, but they are bad managers for the types: the rose in July, before the recession, and did so again in April and July 2011, before the relapse," Crespo says. Then, yes, Draghi corrected and lowered a quarter point in both November and December, so the guy turned to the 1% at the beginning of the year.
The market also shows waiting on whether the ECB will announce new next Thursday auction of cheap credit after two manguerazos a total of one billion euros in December and February, easing tensions Bank of Spain and Italy. Now, both countries have oxygen EU summit in Brussels last week. The future role of the ECB in bank supervision is to be realized.
One of the ways to revive an ailing economy. Most investors give for granted this reduction, a turning point for an institution rather timid when it comes to giving real snip at the price of money.
The Bloomberg survey of 27 economists estimated that the European body will decide at its monthly meeting on Thursday reduced a quarter point, to leave at 0.75%, although the forecast of economists at Barclays raises the reduction in the medium point, until it was at 0.5%, which significantly lastraría the value of the euro, according to this bank.
Also often produce Reuters poll shows a very conclusive result: 48 of the 71 experts surveyed rely on the rebate. And the ECB's chief economist, Peter Praet, paid these expectations simply by saying in an interview in the German edition of Financial Times that it is still obvious, that there is nothing in the doctrine of agency that prevents leave Frankfurt rates below this 1%.
Far from the U.S. and Japan
Despite the historically low, that 1% is still far in the price of money from the U.S. (0.25%), Japan (0.1%) or UK (0.5%). "The guys should come down to 0%, would be a great stimulus plan and a very important for one trillion euros is in mortgages in Spain, would save 10,000 million," says financial expert Jose Ignacio Crespo.
Citigroup strategist Jose Luis Martinez Campuzano believes that Mario Draghi governing body on Thursday approved a quarter-point cut and the Euribor, the benchmark price of mortgages should also fall. "We must not forget that the financial system is also a function of the European Central Bank and inflation expectations are moderate, so do not have grounds to do so," he says.
In his speech after the last council, the pattern of the ECB forecast that inflation rates tend to be above 2% in the euro area for the remainder of 2012-in May was 2.4% - and the forecasts were anchored in line with the bank's target of keeping the rate of price increases of around 2% over the medium term.
The European Central Bank has shifted more in recent months to open domestic liquidity to the banking-that is, open the tap of cheap credit to secure resources to the entities and hence rely on credit flow to citizens, and aim at a reduction of borrowing costs as aggressively as in the United States.
Bad manager type
"The ECB is the best time to save critical moments, but they are bad managers for the types: the rose in July, before the recession, and did so again in April and July 2011, before the relapse," Crespo says. Then, yes, Draghi corrected and lowered a quarter point in both November and December, so the guy turned to the 1% at the beginning of the year.
The market also shows waiting on whether the ECB will announce new next Thursday auction of cheap credit after two manguerazos a total of one billion euros in December and February, easing tensions Bank of Spain and Italy. Now, both countries have oxygen EU summit in Brussels last week. The future role of the ECB in bank supervision is to be realized.
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