http;//elpais.com
じりじりと国家財政破綻に向かうスペイン?
OPINIÓN
De peldaño en peldaño, hasta la intervención total
Rajoy tiene que liderar un gran pacto nacional que sin renunciar al ajuste fiscal aborde políticas de creación de empleo y racionalice las Administraciones públicas sin desmantelar el Estado de las autonomías.
OPINION
From step to step, until the total intervention
Rajoy has to lead a grand bargain without sacrificing national fiscal policies to address job creation and streamline public administration without dismantling the state of autonomies.
Jesus Ceberio Madrid 29 JUL 2012 - 19:34 CET
From step to step, until the total intervention
Rajoy has to lead a grand bargain without sacrificing national fiscal policies to address job creation and streamline public administration without dismantling the state of autonomies.
Jesus Ceberio Madrid 29 JUL 2012 - 19:34 CET
August is mine laying in the financial markets. With little money can make big business. Especially in a scenario such as the European Baroque. If it is always difficult to agree to all its stakeholders, in summer it is impossible to Merkel climbing mountains in Tyrol or the Dolomites, and Hollande locked in the Mediterranean island of Fort de Bregancon. A year ago the Spanish risk premium was subjected to a shaking so unbearable that to avoid greater evils pact with Rajoy Zapatero, in an August evening and at the request of Trichet (ECB governor that rising interest rates when the euro countries were on the verge of recession), a constitutional amendment that forces us to express not go into debt for ever and ever.
Since then we have changed our government, the PSOE achieved on merit the worst result ever achieved in the existing constitutional period, Rajoy led the PP to its biggest electoral victory ... and the patient's condition continues to worsen despite the fact that we by law embraced the faith of the zero deficit. The confidence that investors were returning to our economy by alternating single in La Moncloa has resulted in recent weeks in a rising risk premium above the levels that once led to Greece, Portugal and Ireland request the intervention.
And abominable that our leaders will be the term rescue, these last days has produced the paradox that a country like Ireland has again bailed out the market at lower interest rates that the Kingdom of Spain. Luckily late Mario Draghi, reviled by our foreign minister as "clandestine governor" of the ECB, has dissolved the storm with two sentences hanging over our debt: "The ECB will do everything necessary to support the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. " Was enough for the risk premium ceded more than 120 points in two days and to improve the stock by 10%. Not bad for an illegal immigrant.
In his last European summit (December 2011, just yesterday), when it was the ventriloquist Rajoy, Zapatero arrests had yet to vindicate himself because in the long agony began in May 2010 had managed to avoid at least the disgrace of the rescue . And that must have been the first and only commandment of its terminal stage, since Elena Salgado, during the hearing in Congress to explain a trifle as the bankruptcy of Bankia (24,000 million of public money at stake), has repeatedly said that while she was Minister of Economy "the priority was that Spain was not rescued."
Only the recovery of growth can break that circle which has led to 5.7 million unemployed
Judging by what happened in those seven months in office by popular-we seem to be cumulative fatigue at the end of the term-Zapatero has transmitted to his successor the same aversion to the rescue along with the encrypted combination of the safe at La Moncloa. His Portuguese counterpart, Coelho Steps, consolidate this principle to narrate in his interview in February the torture he was being subdued by the "men in black" of the troika (IMF, ECB and European Commission). What is not excluded that at the end of the visit Rajoy praised the hard-adjustment program adopted by the neighboring country and anticipate something similar for Spain.
The question would be irrelevant if it were limited to a discussion about Byzantine nominalist. Except for a farce that is not well served to increase the prestige of government, like that memorable press conference in which Rajoy, 24 hours late and about to fly to Poland to support the football team, insisted against all evidence to deny that the bank rescue is such, but a soft loan of up to 100,000 million managed by him for no consideration after a formidable dialectical debate with their European counterparts. Sometimes it seems that Rajoy speaks in public as if addressing a parish that had not come online. He fell a deluge of corrections from all over Europe.
Nothing that has happened since I was asked to rescue the banking differs substantially from the clauses imposed Troika countries intervened. The last and most severe adjustment approved a few days ago with the sole vote of PP is literally recorded in the contract for rescue of our financial system, with corresponding increases in VAT, reduction of salaries of officials, and so on. Maybe if the banking reform had not been made late and wrong ("the worst way possible," Draghi said), the price could have been lower.
With all that, the possibility of intervention in the economy overall has not been averted. The latest issue of The Economist's forecast for fall and financing needs amount to 350,000 million euros, compared to 300,000 million according to Reuters would include in a draft run by Schäuble and Guindos, something which has been emphatically denied by Sáenz de Santamaria. The Spanish economy around and around in a vicious circle. The latest adjustment program will deepen the recession in 2013 with a consequent fall in revenues, more difficult to repay debt, loss of confidence in our solvency and rising risk premium. And so we will continue to fall, step by step, until the total intervention.
As much as I occasionally find Draghi thaumaturgical powers to cool the risk premium, only the recovery of growth can break the circle that has brought us to the 5.7 million unemployed. And for that Rajoy has to lead a great national compact that includes at least the first opposition party and the Basque and Catalan nationalists. A covenant without sacrificing fiscal policies to address job creation, public administrations to streamline without dismantling the state of autonomy, which has a more equitable adjustment increasing social explosiveness recess, to formulate a European policy consensus and mobilize the necessary alliances in Brussels. It is time for Parliament to regain its political chamber, among other things, to articulate this great deal and not just punish the votes of most battery every Friday decrees approved by the Government. Something is badly wrong when the bench of the PP applauds the largest program of cuts that were never filed in Congress and one of his deputies welcomed the reform of unemployment benefit with a resounding "Fuck that." Do not forget that Papandreou Rajoy absolute majority lasted just two years.
Since then we have changed our government, the PSOE achieved on merit the worst result ever achieved in the existing constitutional period, Rajoy led the PP to its biggest electoral victory ... and the patient's condition continues to worsen despite the fact that we by law embraced the faith of the zero deficit. The confidence that investors were returning to our economy by alternating single in La Moncloa has resulted in recent weeks in a rising risk premium above the levels that once led to Greece, Portugal and Ireland request the intervention.
And abominable that our leaders will be the term rescue, these last days has produced the paradox that a country like Ireland has again bailed out the market at lower interest rates that the Kingdom of Spain. Luckily late Mario Draghi, reviled by our foreign minister as "clandestine governor" of the ECB, has dissolved the storm with two sentences hanging over our debt: "The ECB will do everything necessary to support the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. " Was enough for the risk premium ceded more than 120 points in two days and to improve the stock by 10%. Not bad for an illegal immigrant.
In his last European summit (December 2011, just yesterday), when it was the ventriloquist Rajoy, Zapatero arrests had yet to vindicate himself because in the long agony began in May 2010 had managed to avoid at least the disgrace of the rescue . And that must have been the first and only commandment of its terminal stage, since Elena Salgado, during the hearing in Congress to explain a trifle as the bankruptcy of Bankia (24,000 million of public money at stake), has repeatedly said that while she was Minister of Economy "the priority was that Spain was not rescued."
Only the recovery of growth can break that circle which has led to 5.7 million unemployed
Judging by what happened in those seven months in office by popular-we seem to be cumulative fatigue at the end of the term-Zapatero has transmitted to his successor the same aversion to the rescue along with the encrypted combination of the safe at La Moncloa. His Portuguese counterpart, Coelho Steps, consolidate this principle to narrate in his interview in February the torture he was being subdued by the "men in black" of the troika (IMF, ECB and European Commission). What is not excluded that at the end of the visit Rajoy praised the hard-adjustment program adopted by the neighboring country and anticipate something similar for Spain.
The question would be irrelevant if it were limited to a discussion about Byzantine nominalist. Except for a farce that is not well served to increase the prestige of government, like that memorable press conference in which Rajoy, 24 hours late and about to fly to Poland to support the football team, insisted against all evidence to deny that the bank rescue is such, but a soft loan of up to 100,000 million managed by him for no consideration after a formidable dialectical debate with their European counterparts. Sometimes it seems that Rajoy speaks in public as if addressing a parish that had not come online. He fell a deluge of corrections from all over Europe.
Nothing that has happened since I was asked to rescue the banking differs substantially from the clauses imposed Troika countries intervened. The last and most severe adjustment approved a few days ago with the sole vote of PP is literally recorded in the contract for rescue of our financial system, with corresponding increases in VAT, reduction of salaries of officials, and so on. Maybe if the banking reform had not been made late and wrong ("the worst way possible," Draghi said), the price could have been lower.
With all that, the possibility of intervention in the economy overall has not been averted. The latest issue of The Economist's forecast for fall and financing needs amount to 350,000 million euros, compared to 300,000 million according to Reuters would include in a draft run by Schäuble and Guindos, something which has been emphatically denied by Sáenz de Santamaria. The Spanish economy around and around in a vicious circle. The latest adjustment program will deepen the recession in 2013 with a consequent fall in revenues, more difficult to repay debt, loss of confidence in our solvency and rising risk premium. And so we will continue to fall, step by step, until the total intervention.
As much as I occasionally find Draghi thaumaturgical powers to cool the risk premium, only the recovery of growth can break the circle that has brought us to the 5.7 million unemployed. And for that Rajoy has to lead a great national compact that includes at least the first opposition party and the Basque and Catalan nationalists. A covenant without sacrificing fiscal policies to address job creation, public administrations to streamline without dismantling the state of autonomy, which has a more equitable adjustment increasing social explosiveness recess, to formulate a European policy consensus and mobilize the necessary alliances in Brussels. It is time for Parliament to regain its political chamber, among other things, to articulate this great deal and not just punish the votes of most battery every Friday decrees approved by the Government. Something is badly wrong when the bench of the PP applauds the largest program of cuts that were never filed in Congress and one of his deputies welcomed the reform of unemployment benefit with a resounding "Fuck that." Do not forget that Papandreou Rajoy absolute majority lasted just two years.
OPINION
ステップへのステップから、合計介入まで
Rajoyは、雇用創出に対処し、自治体の状態を解体することなく行政を合理化するために国家の財政政策を犠牲にすることなく、壮大な取引をリードする必要があります。
イエスCeberioマドリード29 JUL 2012 - 19時34分CET
我々は政府を変更した以来、PSOEがメリットで、これまで既存の憲法上の期間内に達成し、最悪の結果を達成し、Rajoyは、その最大の選挙の勝利にPPを導いた...そして、患者の状態は、我々という事実にもかかわらず、悪化し続けて法律によってゼロ赤字の信仰を受け入れた。投資家はラ·モンクの単一の交互に我々の経済に戻ったという自信は、かつてギリシャ、ポルトガル、アイルランドにつながったレベルを超える上昇リスク·プレミアムに最近数週間の間にもたらした介入を要求します。
と不愉快な私たちの指導者は言葉の救助であること、これらの最後の日は、アイルランドのような国は再びスペイン王国、より低い金利で市場を救済しているというパラドックスを生み出しています。 ECBの "秘密の知事"としての外務大臣で罵ら幸いにも後半マリオドラギは、当社の債務にぶら下がって二つの文章の嵐を溶解しています： "ECBは、ユーロをサポートするために必要なすべてを行います。と私を信じて、それだけでは十分でしょう。 "リスク·プレミアムは、2日間で120以上のポイントを割譲し、10％の株式を改善するために十分であった。不法移民のために悪くない。
長い間苦しんで、2010年5月に始まったので、腹話術師Rajoyたときに、サパテロの逮捕は、彼自身の潔白を証明するためにまだあった彼の最後の欧州サミット（2011年12月、ちょうど昨日）では、少なくとも救助の不名誉を避けるために、管理していた。と、そのBankiaの倒産（危機に瀕し公的資金の24000万ドル）とささいなことを説明するために議会の公聴会で、エレナサルガドので、その末期の最初で唯一の命令されている必要がありますが、繰り返しながら、彼女は述べている経済産業大臣は、 "優先順位は、スペインが救出されていないことでした。"
唯一の成長の回復は5.7万人の失業につながっているその輪を破ることができる
ポピュラー我々によってオフィスにそれらの7ヶ月で何が起こったかによって判断すると、ラ·モンクロアで安全に暗号化された組み合わせと一緒に救助に彼の後継者に同じ嫌悪を送信した用語·サパテロの終了時に累積疲労しているようだ。彼のポルトガル語対応、コエーリョの手順は、2月に彼のインタビューで彼はトロイカの "メン·イン·ブラック"（IMF、ECBと欧州委員会）によって征服されていた拷問を物語るようにこの原則を統合します。どのような訪問の終わりにRajoyは隣国で採択されたハードの調整プログラムを賞賛し、スペインのようなものを予想することは除外されていません。
それはビザンチン様式の唯名論者に関するディスカッションに限定された場合に問題とは無関係になります。よくその思い出の記者会見のように、政府の威信を高めるために提供されていない茶番劇を除いて24時間遅れて約サッカーチームをサポートするために、ポーランドに飛ぶことRajoyは、反対を主張している銀行救済などであることを否定するすべての証拠が、その欧州のカウンターパートと手ごわい弁証法的議論の後に無配慮のために彼によって管理されて100,000百万までのソフトローン。時にはそれはRajoyがオンラインになっていなかった教区に対処するかのように人前で話すと思われます。彼はヨーロッパ各地からの修正の大洪水となりました。
私は銀行を救うように頼まれたので、起こっているものは何も課されたトロイカ国が介入条項と実質的に異なるありません。最後に、最も深刻な調整がPPの唯一の投票で数日前に承認は、文字通りその上の対応する付加価値の増加、職員の給与の削減、で、我々の金融システムの救済のために契約書に記録されます。銀行改革が遅れて、間違っ行われなかった場合かもしれない（ "可能な限り最悪の方法は、"ドラギは言った）、価格は低くされている可能性があります。
すべてのことで、経済への介入の可能性は全体的に回避されていません。秋と資金調達のエコノミストの予測の最新号は、300,000百万円に比べ、350,000百万ユーロの量を必要とロイターによると、ショーブルとGuindosによって実行される草案に断固としてサエンスドによって拒否されているものが含まれますサンタマリア。悪循環の周りに周辺スペイン経済。最新の調整プログラムは、より、借金を返済するのが難しい私たちのソルベンシーの信頼の喪失と上昇リスク·プレミアム、収益の結果秋と2013年の不況を深めていきます。だから私たちは合計介入するまで、ステップ·バイ·ステップで、落下していきます。
私は時折リスク·プレミアムを冷却するためにドラギ魔術師の力を見つける限り、成長の唯一の回復は5.7万人の失業に私たちをもたらしているサークルを破ることができる。そしてそのためにRajoyは、少なくとも最初の野党とバスク語、カタロニア民族を含む偉大な国家のコンパクトをリードする必要があります。雇用創出に対処するために財政政策を犠牲にすることなく、契約、行政機関は、欧州の政策合意を策定し、動員し、社会的な爆発性の凹部を増やすより公平な調整を持っている自治の状態を、解体せずに合理化するブリュッセルに必要な提携。議会は、他のもののうち、その政治チャンバーを取り戻すために、この偉大な取引を明確にするとちょうど政府によって承認された毎週金曜日は、政令で最もバッテリーの票を罰するための時間がそれです。何かは、PPのベンチが議会に提出されなかったカットと彼の副官のいずれかの最大のプログラムを賞賛したときにひどく間違っている響きで失業給付の改革を歓迎し、 "そのファック。"パパンドレウRajoy絶対多数は、わずか2年間続いたことを忘れないでください。
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿