スペイン政府は、緊縮財政による2012年2013年の国内総生産への影響は6%で、国家予算削減と税金の値上げで,2012年には国内総生産が2'6%減少し、2013年にはGDPが3'2%減少と推定
El Gobierno estima que la austeridad resta en 2012 y 2013 un 3,2% del PIB
El plan de reformas del Ejecutivo relaciona la austeridad con una caída en el empleo del 2,7%
Prevé un impacto de los recortes menor que el FMI y muy positivo a largo plazo
DESCARGABLE Programa Nacional de Reformas 2013
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 30 ABR 2013 - 16:41 CET
The Government believes that austerity remains in 2012 and 2013 by 3.2% of GDP
The Executive's reform plan austerity associated with a fall in employment of 2.7%
It provides an impact of the cuts less than the very positive IMF and long-term
DOWNLOADABLE National Reform Programme 2013
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 30 ABR 2013 - 16:41 CET
The Government has already sent to Brussels its new reform plan, which revealed on Friday. It analyzes the impact on growth, consumption, export or use of a dozen structural reforms, some already underway, others just announced. And the most impact is long, the austerity measures adopted in the first two years of the legislature to fit popular European mandate to prioritize the reduction of the public deficit.
Castro said that spending cuts and tax increases "permanent" approved for 2012 and 2013 by the Spanish authorities equivalent to 6% of GDP, more than 60,000 million euros. As is well known, its impact on economic activity is negative scathing: austerity, calculated Executive subtracted 2.6% to GDP in 2012 and the discount will accumulate in 2013 to reach 3.2% compared to two years earlier.
The Government pays special attention to the increase in VAT, which will subtract up to 0.6% of GDP in 2013
The analysis of the Government of Mariano Rajoy concedes that "the short-term effect of fiscal consolidation has contributed to the lack of visibility" of "positive impact" they have on the Spanish economy in the long run "the numerous measures taken or being adoption ", in reference to financial reform, labor reform Guarantee Act Market Unit.
The PP Executive assumes that the impact of austerity "was recessive", "though less than simple estimates would point multipliers based on". The allusion to the debate reopened by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which corrected late last year and concluded that the impact, in the current situation (with very high levels of indebtedness and lack of credit monetary policies despite aggressive), was much higher than I thought.
The IMF now believes that for every percentage point adjustment, back activity between 0.9 and 1.7 points. However, the government estimates are very similar to those held by the Fund prior to review, much softer: back 0.5 percentage points for each percentage point adjustment. "The simulation took into account positive shocks resulting from structural reforms that allow greater flexibility in prices and wages," referring particularly to labor reform. "It also refers to" non-Keynesian effects "referring to the controversial idea that spending cuts can contribute to an improvement in economic activity.
moreThe government deficit down to 1.63% of GDP in the first quarterIncome from Social Security contributions fall by 3.5%The end of the crisis is delayed to 2016Rajoy admits that destroyed 1.3 million jobs in the legislatureThe government postponed the deficit to 2016Brussels accepts delay adjustment
Among the austerity measures, the government pays special attention to the increase in VAT, which will subtract up to 0.6% of GDP in 2013. Its negative effect also just be diluted in the first ten years of operation, as the calculation of the Executive.
In the long term, the Government has no doubt believes that austerity will improve, even slightly starting GDP (0.76% in ten years). And that the positive impact will be much more intense in employment (9% more than in 2011). For the short term, the impact on the work of austerity is still negative: the Government considers that, in two years, the direct and indirect effects of spending cuts and tax increases to 2.7% would detract employment initial. In relation to 2011 would amount to a loss of 467,000 jobs, nearly a third of the job losses expected by the Executive for two years.
In the case of labor reform, the Government prevents assess what has been its impact on the economy in job creation and generation of activity, and opts for a simulation of what effect to a fall in demand for three points percentage. And concludes that, thanks to the reform in the first year, 4.2% lost fewer jobs.
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