スペインのあたらしい年金額の計算は複雑
Así se calcularán las nuevas pensiones
El método de cálculo para calcular la actualización de las pensiones es muy complicado
Miguel Jiménez Madrid 26 MAY 2013 - 21:33 CET
So new pensions will be calculated
The calculation method for calculating pensions update is very complicated
Miguel Jiménez Madrid 26 MAY 2013 - 21:33 CET
Experts say the commission appointed by the Government for the sustainability factor and expect effective social support, "it is necessary that the formulas are easily understood." It is not clear that this is achieved with its proposal. Facing the current system, in which the pension rise (in principle) the same as the CPI, experts now propose two new formulas that complicate the calculation.
The first formula is quite simple. It's called "intergenerational equity ratio of new pensions". The initial pension is multiplied by this ratio, so that pensioners retiring go with a longer life expectancy receive a lower initial pension. For example, assuming that the initial pension of 2014 is 1 for those retiring at age 65, for those who do so in 2015 the initial pension would be 0.9977, which is the result of dividing life expectancy at age 65 in 2014 and 2015 (20.27 from 20.34). With current projections, the coefficient would be 0.9381 in 2024 and 0.8832 in 2034, equivalent reductions in the initial pension of 6% and 12%, respectively.
But the formula is complicated upgrade the pensions, which will affect current and future pensioners. CPI Instead, apply a formula in which the key is the income and expenses of the system. First divide the growth (in per unit) of contributions expected (1 + g * l, t) between the product of the growing number of pension plans (1 + g * P't) by the expected increase in the pension mean (1 + g * pms't) by the substitution effect. To understand, for example, if prices are expected to fall by 1%, the average pension will grow by 2% and that the number of pensions grow by 1%, the formula would be (0.99 / (1.02 * 1 , 01)) = 0.961. In these times when the prices fall by loss of employment, while the number of pensioners and the average pension rises, the formula would give less than 1.
The coefficient in turn, is multiplied by a ratio between income and expenditure (I / G) system, with an exponent (alpha) between 0 and 1 that sets the pace at which you want to fill the gap or, if surplus , the part that is intended to improve pension and what goes to the reserve fund.
The formula is complicated because the idea is to apply these factors to the data of a single year, but as an arithmetic moving average (*) or geometric (') to include the most recent years and forecasts for the next, for try to dissociate cycle. But after five years of crisis and a weak recovery prospects, waiting to specify some parameters, the application of this formula would most likely be a reduction in the pensions for several years. If you want to avoid nominal cuts, would probably freeze several years, representing a reduction in real terms.
In the formula of the experts, the CPI or is or was expected, except for a roof in good times. Therefore, this formula would be a revolution. Pensions have definitely leave guaranteed purchasing power.
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