キプロスなどの金融危機で、欧州連合は、解体の危機に。
LA CUARTA PÁGINA
Peligra la unidad europea
Esta crisis amenaza con destruir a la UE y el único modo de salvarla es aplicar la solidaridad sobre la deuda y, en general, ceder más soberanía. No se sabe si Francia o Alemania están dispuestos a ello
Joschka Fischer 3 MAY 2013 - 00:00 CET
THE FOURTH PAGE
European unity Danger
This crisis threatens to destroy the EU and the only way to save is to apply solidarity on debt and generally cede more sovereignty. It is not known if France and Germany are willing to do
Joschka Fischer 3 MAY 2013 - 00:00 CET
A few weeks ago it seemed that the worst of the European financial crisis was behind them and that was approaching a return to stability. But appearances deceive. A problem that (at least in relative terms) could have been lower, that of Cyprus, was combined with an almost incredible degree of incompetence on the part of the troika (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) and became a major crisis.
Although markets remained calm, the Cyprus crisis laid bare the full extent of the political disaster caused by the eurozone crisis: European Union is disintegrating from the core. Today, Europeans face a crisis of confidence in Europe that can not be resolved with further injection of liquidity by the ECB and therefore is much more dangerous than a relapse of the markets.
Europe had in the past a political order based on competition, distrust, conflict of powers and, ultimately, the war between sovereign states. That order collapsed on May 8, 1945 and in its place came another system based on mutual trust, solidarity, the rule of law and the pursuit of negotiated solutions. But now that the crisis is undermining the foundations of this order, the trust becomes distrust, solidarity succumbs to old prejudices (and even before new hatreds between southern and northern poor rich) and give way to a negotiated external imposition. And once again Germany plays a key role in this process of disintegration.
Sooner or later one of the great crisis reject the austerity imposed from outside
This is because to resolve the eurozone crisis Germany (which is by far the strongest economy in the EU) imposed the same strategy that worked for her in the early millennium, but internal and external economic conditions totally different . For southern European countries hit by the crisis formula defending Germany, with its mix of austerity and structural reforms, is proving deadly because they lack two key components: off debt and growth.
Sooner or later, one of the major European countries in crisis political leaders choose not to accept any longer the austerity measures imposed from outside. Even now, at election time, national governments more or less openly promise to protect its citizens from Europe because Germany has ensured that the main ingredients of the recipe for resolving the crisis are: austerity and structural reforms.
The purpose of the thesis that had to try to southern Europe with "severity" for their own good (because, otherwise, everything has remained the same) are obvious. Good severe was the treatment that caused a rapid downturn, massive unemployment (above 50% among young people) and continued deterioration in the fiscal situation by increasing the cost of debt interest. In fact, at this time all eurozone countries experiencing insufficient economic growth or outright recession.
What does Germany? We can not pretend that all of Europe conform to Germany and the German political class lacks the courage and determination to try to conform to European Germany. The question is: Do you want Germany to keep the monetary union and, with it, the European Union, or leave that doubt and lack of vision accelerate erosion of the foundations of Europe?
In this crisis, the decision gave way to action (or lack thereof). Recently, The International Herald Tribune quoted the words of Winston Churchill: "It is not enough to do our best, sometimes, to do what is necessary." That is precisely what we do in Europe and urged the eurozone.
It has long been known what is necessary. The price for the survival of the monetary union and the European project is to expand the community level with the creation of a banking union, fiscal and political. Those who oppose these changes because they fear shared responsibility, the transfer of resources from the rich to the poor and the loss of national sovereignty will have to accept the renationalisation of Europe and with it, the loss of international prominence. There is no alternative (and, indeed, the status quo does not help either).
In Europe everyone knows that either destroys the current crisis to the European Union or produces its political union and that the only way to save the euro solidarity includes debts already incurred and partial debt mutualisation future. These measures necessarily involve large transfers of sovereignty. Is Germany ready for it (or, for that matter, France)?
National politicians are responsible, in part, that attribute failures to Brussels
The real crisis of the EU and monetary union is financial but political, more precisely, is a leadership crisis. All European capitals suffer from a notorious lack of vision, courage and firmness of purpose, but this applies especially to Berlin (and the government and the opposition both).
European National politicians never cease to criticize the EU for its lack of political legitimacy, but are partly responsible for that by which the accused. Or is that already proeuropeístas so cowed and discouraged who prefer to relinquish command populist and nationalist anti-European? If they do, it will be a disaster, because the crisis is too deep to support a technocratic solution.
Germany prepares for a national election in which (more or less as it happened in France during the presidential election last year) the European crisis does not appear, or at most have a secondary role. Both the government and the opposition believe that it is best to wait until the day after the election to tell people the truth about the most important question (and sparingly).
Getting to that extreme would make democracy a farce. But maybe things will turn out very different: it may be that the dynamics of the European crisis derail the plans of German politicians. There may still be some unpleasant surprise, at the point where we are, maybe that's the main hope for Europe.
Joschka Fischer, former Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005, was for nearly 20 years one of the leaders of the German Green Party.
Copyright: Project Syndicate / Institute for Human Sciences, 2013.
www.project-syndicate.org
Translation: Esteban Flamini.
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