スペインの2014年の経済予想は、景気低迷からは脱出するが、景気回復にはかなりの時間がかかる
Economía a cámara lenta
Los analistas prevén que 2014 sea el año del adiós a la crisis, pero los riesgos existentes tiñen de incertidumbre este vaticinio
Alicia González Madrid 29 DIC 2013 - 00:00 CET
Slow Economy
Analysts predict that 2014 will be the year of farewell to the crisis, but the risks of uncertainty of this forecast stained
Alicia González Madrid 29 DIC 2013 - 00:00 CET
This time it's different. Again. For more than lukewarm forecasts of recent years have proved to be too optimistic and even more than reality has been determined to remind us how long and hard it is out of the worst financial crisis of the past three generations , the economic world seems convinced that 2014 will be the final year, the year of recovery , the year you finally reach the end of the tunnel and thumbed see light. But if you read the fine print of the hundreds of reports published by this time the investment banks and brokerage houses do count and the amount of risks that accumulate on the horizon , the film is much more like that of recent years. "But this time we have a tailwind and the improvement is real ," argues Jan Hatzius , chief global economist at Goldman Sachs. 2014 will be the seventh year since the outbreak of the global financial crisis and if the optimism of those analysts materializes, will be the first time that global growth is within reach of their potential , an increase of between 3.5 % and 4% , in the best case . That's what some experts call " the great downward convergence of growth" , a general trend among emerging and developed countries.
Some experts speak of the great downward convergence of growth
The average five-year GDP of developed economies nominal growth is at its lowest level since the early thirties, the Great Depression , as well remind analysts at Deutsche Bank. The recovery, in that environment , occurs almost in slow motion , and thus , correcting imbalances , reducing unemployment and adjustment of debts. Especially when prices are in a downward spiral widespread . "We are living in a world of low growth returns to normal very slowly , at best ," argue analysts Blackrock . " Unless the nominal growth exceeds real interest rates , governments are going to be very difficult to reduce deficits . The good news is that we can attend the first synchronized recovery in developed economies since 2010 " top.
With a slowdown in the emerging economies and euro area has avoided the catastrophe , but is unable to move beyond the crisis, the United States emerged as the economic star of 2014. " We are especially optimistic about the sustainability of growth in the U.S., where the full impact of the burden of government policy on economic growth is likely to fade quickly in early 2014 ," says James Balfour analyst . The first global economy has made great progress in cleaning up the balance sheets of the financial sector , the real estate and housing prices experienced a significant rise and rise of the stock has helped families to reduce their debts. " But the missing ingredient is the confidence of American consumers , an element that usually have in abundance ," recalls Stefan Schneider, Schroders . And this factor is crucial, as private consumption accounts for two thirds of U.S. GDP.
The correction of imbalances in an environment of low growth is complicated
However, the biggest problem is that the U.S. has embarked on an operation from which there is no precedent - " infinite quantitative easing " as qualified by Schroders economists - and unknowns that open to start dismantling all that stimulus structure are numerous . The end of the previous phases of quantitative easing caused the evaporation of the signs of recovery in the real economy and forced new interventions of the Federal Reserve. This time the markets seem to have assumed that the policy change is here to stay but the interest rates of ten-year bond and around 3% and if the climb gets speed can force a change of plans at the Federal Reserve. This opens another unknown because Janet Yellen taking over from Ben Bernanke as head of the company on January 31 and how take the leadership role in this step is yet to be defined .
In Europe the debate on the withdrawal of monetary stimulus still seems distant . " Europe is about 18 months behind in the recovery from the United States and , at this time , it appears that the economy is stagnating ," said Bob Jolly, head of global macroeconomics at Schroders . One of the causes for this stagnation , according to Jolly, is the reluctance of banks to increase lending to businesses. And with the sector under a new and theoretically ultimately stress test by the European Central Bank ( ECB) , it appears that this trend will change in 2014.
Europe is closer than a year ago of a deflationary scenario
At least the prevailing austerity policy in the region has been softened by extending deadlines for compliance with the objective of public deficit and thanks to the commitment of the ECB to provide unlimited liquidity troubled economies , and that has allowed some recovery . According to estimates by Deutsche Bank, the structural deficit just a quarter point will be reduced in 2014. In fact , most analysts are betting on a new auction of liquidity by the ECB next year , preferably in the first quarter, but do not expect any other expansion measure by the entity. With a restrictive fiscal and credit policies - and part - pending adjustment , the growth of the economy, in the most optimistic scenario, there will be around beyond 1 % and not serve to reduce the unemployment rate from 12 % today. " The green shoots are going to need much watering before emerge ," says Jean Michel Six, chief European economist at Standard & Poor's , said in its outlook .
Perhaps the biggest threat to the European economy comes from the price side . According to Jolly, Schroders , Europe is now closer than a year ago of a disinflationary scenario caused by a lack of genuine demand. It is the scenario that has lived in Japan in the past 20 years and now that hardly begins to leave behind.
After a 2% growth forecast for this year , experts estimate that the Japanese economy may grow as much in 2014. The main threat in this case , is the rise in VAT announced that the government of Shinzo Abe considered starting next April and some analysts fear could slow the weak recovery , but do not rule out further action by the bank center if those risks materialize . Nevertheless, Japan is the only developed economy with growth above its potential.
In China the problems begin to emerge from the credit bubble
Worst prospects are , at this time , emerging economies . The withdrawal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve has taken a toll on those countries with high current account deficit and increased dependence on foreign financing - Brazil , Russia , India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa . The currencies of these countries have depreciated and the stock , after years of massive capital inflows , see how foreign investors dump much of its assets in those markets. Nevertheless, the real engine of growth for these countries and that China marks the situation is ambivalent.
The reforms passed last November will , according to Deutsche Bank, a positive to improve economic efficiency and reduce state influence in the financial sector effect. But the problems of the credit bubble in the Chinese economy have already installed an appearance , and forced the authorities to tighten access to finance, in recent months causing droughts of short-term credit . Few analysts now bet on Chinese growth beyond 7.5% , with its consequent impact on the large emerging economies.
You can not say that these raw , recovery of the economy in 2014 is guaranteed rather than pins. And there are many risks that can materialize . In summary IIF economists , the sun is coming ... but just in case keep the umbrella handy . Again.
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