スペインの低迷していた不動産の住宅の売買は、回復の兆しか
Tierra a la vista para el sector inmobiliario
El sector vive los primeros signos de estabilidad pese a que el ajuste no ha acabado
Lluís Pellicer Barcelona 19 ENE 2014 - 01:00 CET
Land in sight for real estate
The sector is experiencing the first signs of stability despite the adjustment is not over
Lluís Pellicer Barcelona 19 ENE 2014 - 01:00 CET
Thousands of homeowners have been waiting more than six years the arrival of better times to remove the balcony of his house poster sold. The collapse of the housing market, should first pass out from drunkenness over ten years made it impossible. But , after a slow and incomplete adjustment , this activity has begun to recover the pulse of the hand of foreign investment . The sector also seen other signs of a recovery that portend costly , as the slight rise of housing prices in some communities or early draining huge stock of newly built housing . But the setting, analysts say , must go on.
The slow reduction of asset prices and, above all , the sovereign debt crisis suffered by Spain in 2012 drove the few foreign investors who were then interested in the Spanish brick. Before last summer, two operations broke a drought that raised fears another blank year for the sector. The investment fund Qatari Diar was done with the Vela Hotel Barcelona for 200 million euros , while French insurer Axa returned to Spain and acquired a package of 13 properties of the Catalan Government for 172 million . "Before summer there were a dozen fund assets in Spain consideration . On return , we identified over 50 , "says CEO Irea , Mikel Echavarren .
Actually , there was no real break in August . Specialized in the investment market consultants were working holiday in tow. The effort was reflected in three operations , to the surprise of the sector, the residential market : two packages of social housing City Hall and the Community of Madrid and a portfolio of houses in the bad bank . "I had more than two years traveling to London, calling at the door of banks and funds and showing property portfolios . But the gap between what the bank requested , the principal owner of those assets and what they were willing to pay those funds was still very wide , "says a broker.
The arrival of foreign investors had much to do with the provisions made by the Spanish banks following government decrees , demanding increase coverage by exposure to brick. A report by the risk rating agency Fitch notes that during the first half of 2013 the entities sold homes that had been hogging at an average discount of 71.5 % compared to the appraised value of your home . This time , investors did respond . The Bank of Spain collects a 28% rise in foreign investment, that between September 2012 and 2013 was 6.288 million . " Spain has become " summarizes the CEO of Aguirre Newman , Angel Serrano.
The disparity of the data makes the Spanish statistical gibberish it difficult to know precisely the extent of the collapse of the last six years. However, almost all series - official appraisers and those made from 1998 - draw the shape of a bubble begins to deflate in late 2007 and early 2008 . Data from the Ministry of Public Works indicates that prices increased by 175.6 % in the decade of boom then down 28.3% in six years and return to 2003 levels. The National Statistics Institute ( INE ) indicate a greater adjustment of up to 37.2 % in the second quarter. In real terms , prices have even fallen half in Catalonia , Madrid and Aragon.
Both now agree statistics show some numbers in green. According to INE, between June and September 2013 prices increased 0.7% and ten communities experienced increases ( see chart). The Ministry of Development is still showing the whole of Spain for the red , but four autonomy - Baleares, Valencia, Extremadura and Madrid- experience a sign change. Not the first time that happens . In 2010 the sector believed start playing ground after a price increase of 1.6% in the second quarter and a rise in sales of 6.3%. It was just a stop along the way favored by fiscal measures of the government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.
Official statistics show price increases in some regions
Now there are no tax advantages to justify the rise. "In some communities, prices have bottomed . In other because that does not happen too concentrated stock yet , "says the president of the Association of Promoters and Builders , José Manuel Galindo. The leader of the employers also highlights the increased sales on the coast by foreign demand as a determinant of price increases recorded .
While the whole of Spain 17% of buyers are foreign , this proportion is higher in Murcia ( 22%) , Las Palmas ( 25 % ), Balearic Islands (34 % ), Malaga ( 36%), Girona ( 40 %) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife ( 43%). In Alicante is even 53%. And while house sales in Spain fell by 2.1 % through November , in all these provinces rose. The second home , the product that has been devalued in this crisis, has pulled the market this year.
" The latest data show a slowdown in the pace of adjustment and correction see very significant , if not reach the ground , must be about to do so ," said Maria Romero, consulting International Financial Analysts . Still, no one gives the adjustment completed. Deutsche Bank believes that prices could " hit bottom " in 2014 , but still require a reduction of 10%, the Standard & Poor's predicts that homes will become cheaper 5% in 2014 and 1% in 2015, and La Caixa and Fitch expected a decline of 8%. "We're talking drops of between 5% and 10% , a proportion that already falls within the margin of negotiation between two parties ," recalls Echavarren .
For the home values reach a point of equilibrium, these should not only be affordable to foreign buyers or investors , but also for Spanish homes. An indicator to see if the house price corresponds to the demand which expresses the relationship between housing prices and disposable income of households. Professor of Applied Economics at the University Pompeu Fabra , José García Montalvo, explains that the purchase price is reasonable if it is close to four years of gross household income . That relationship was surpassed in 2000 , and in 2007 families even spent 7.7 years income to housing. The price cut has allowed far fewer resources are allocated , but are still relevant to 5.8 years, according to the Bank of Spain . And in a context of wage cuts and tax hikes .
Foreign capital was the sector amounted to 6.288 million euros
In a market little more professional , especially in the segment of the second hand, and which was delivered to the myths, remember : the never drops or rent housing is throwing money -analysts want to avoid that now fester legend that prices will not fall over . "Investors are buying packages of properties , which is changing the expectations of other actors. That has a downside: many vendors have slowed the reduction in prices when the cycle is not yet complete , and that leads to lower sales . The adjustment has to continue , "says García Montalvo . By the way, the sector has already received the first cold shower : after an increase in the value of homes in November, the statistics had an Tinsa down in December.
The hiring gains ground
Spain remains a nation of homeowners , but something less than full bubble. The weight of the house purchase has fallen during the crisis. It has done lightly, but was enough to cut with a strong trend for decades. Thus, if in 2005 the percentage of households that owned a home was 80.5% , in 2012 this had already been reduced to 79.2% , according to the report prepared by the Spanish economy Caixa last December. " the Spanish market is moving toward rent , "he says flatly professor at the University Pompeu Fabra , José García Montalvo .
In full housing bubble , investors came to represent 40% of the demand for housing . However, many of those purchases were primarily speculative reason . This is what is known as the pass : acquire a floor , sometimes equity without providing an input, and resell soon the rising price advantage to pick juicy gains . "International investor who now comes to Spain are interested in having rental housing parks give a return ," says García Montalvo, who recalls that goes in line with labor flexibility measures tending to the market.
This explains operation and not without controversy , as the sale of 1,860 rental housing in the City of Madrid to Blackstone for 125 million euros, a portfolio of housing bad bank to HIG Capital for 100 million euros, or 3,000 floors of Young plan of Madrid society formed by Goldman Sachs and Azora by 201 million euros. Funds still looking for such opportunities , as evidenced by the interest generated by the possibility that the Catalan government privatized part of its stock of public housing.
Although the weight of the property has been reduced in a still modest , the report indicates that La Caixa in the case of young weight reduction of the property has been remarkably increased from 58.1 % of 2007 to 47.7 % in 2012. " Unemployment is the main drawback . Some people do not even have the ability to access to housing by renting "laments PACE President , José Manuel Galindo.
La Caixa admits that the crisis could again give wings to the property, but measures such as eliminating tax deductions for home buying can support the sector. The route that has that market also is very large , as in Germany 46.7% of households are on lease and rent in France 36.3% of families. In the whole of the euro area , this proportion is 33% . In addition , between 2005 and 2012 , when the weight of the property was reduced by 1.3 points in Spain , in Ireland was down eight percentage points , according to the report .
In the complex chain machinery to get going again , is the first price cut after the resumption of sales and, finally , the construction of houses . Transactions not only depend on the price , but also employment and funding. Prospects for employment are better than in 2013 , but still very weak. And besides, the crisis has swept away in the last year 80,000 households for the loss of population and family reunification , other determinants of house sales .
The industry sees itself retained a certain amount of demand generated every crisis , with purchasing power. Therefore, the funding will be the workhorse . So far, most of the acquisitions have been no mortgage . If, before the bubble burst 37.3 % of transactions were formalized without a loan, today that figure rises to 68.6 % , according to data from the General Council of Notaries . Mortgage lending remains minimal. In the last twelve months , according to the INE, 208,210 loans were formed , 28% less than in the previous year and 83 % less than before the crisis. The total credit for the purchase of housing has also fallen in the last year , albeit modestly , 7% from the peak of the boom. While less capital is left , also lends more expensive, with a spread of between 2.5 and 3 points over Euribor .
Employers, and several consultants agree therefore feels that Banco Santander 's open season on mortgages with a campaign that promotes loans with a spread over Euribor of 1.99 %. " Cheaper mortgages as a result of a more affordable wholesale funding Spanish banks will be one of the factors in the recovery of the sector ," says Carlos Masip , analyst at Fitch .
Some consultants , as Echavarren , also rely on the always difficult to measure psychological effect. The CEO of Banco Sabadell and responsibility for property management entity , Miguel Montes, expresses that " change in expectations " on price statistics by the Sociological Research Centre (CIS ) . "People who think that housing prices will rise next year have risen from 4.7% in June 2012 to 22.8 % in December 2013 , and those who think they will fall from 54.5 % in June 2012 to 25.4% in December 2013 , "he explains .
The resumption of purchases should be the catalyst for the return of construction activity , now at historic lows . Until October 2013 , the architects visaron only 29,088 homes . Fall is sensational, 96.6 % compared to 2008 , when building permits were given to 865,561 . But for the cranes leave the garage and re- appear on the skyline must leave Spain before draining the stock of new development . This only increased until 2009 when, according to Public Works, exceeded 650,000 units . The latest data , from 2012 , indicates that this was reduced to the 583,453 homes.
The volume of new construction homes unsold is still very high, but varies greatly depending on the area . The spring rate is very high in some communities - from 65% in Extremadura and Cantabria and Navarra 43% , and very low in others, in La Rioja , Valencia , Aragon and Asturias is reduced below 4 % - . In the whole of Spain empty new housing accounted for 2.3 % of the housing stock , but in some provinces are practically nil , as Caceres, Badajoz , Cantabria and Vizcaya . Instead, Castellón , Almería and Toledo will head.
In the years almost certainly will not bother the millions of square meters with the government flooded the market before the bubble burst . Then , Valencia , Madrid , Catalonia and Andalusia had ground to lift more than a million homes . Only the first of these autonomies was half that capacity. But Marina d' Or , for example, has already announced that he was resigning to build 35,000 homes on land it won in Oropesa del Mar ( Castellón) to devote to hotels. Nor will run , - at least temporarily - projects pharaonic as EuroVegas or El Reino de Don Quijote , in Ciudad Real, although still alive Barcelona World project, promoted by Enrique Banuelos, the founder of Astroc , the company that was the icon excess.
But in 2013 itself began to lay the foundation stone of some promotions . They did Santander , BBVA or Sabadell. " Let's see entities that are developing solar good start in cities ," says García Montalvo . And as the industry assumes there homes you can never escape , according Bankinter , there are about 150,000 unsaleable - García Montalvo assumed that many will never desarollarse soils . The market will also depend on what you are doing and what is now the first real estate in Europe, the Asset Management Company of the Bank Restructuring Coming ( SAREB ) , which has a market share AFI figure at 30% .
" There are places where the housing stock has bottomed and demand exists. We have already launched 48 developments , of which 31 have already been activated and sell well . In different promotions have raised prices and the pace of sales has increased , "said Montes, of Sabadell.
But little capacity has most of the promoter to raise a building sector. Or what's left of it . Since I ripped the crisis, 10,628 businesses had to ask the bankruptcy - third of all payments in Spain suspended few - and left have little access to credit. " When you want to start a promotion requires banks have sold off plan ," said Galindo. But Montes said that his company has sold more than 50 solar million to promoters to initiate housing and has identified funds that " are raising capital to create vehicles that do promotion."
Less questions posed by the investment market. So far this year , the office Mikel Echavarren have already spent seven international investment funds primarily interested in the purchase of debt portfolios . Esteban de Lope runs the largest fund manager Deka German , with a size of 12,500 million euros. In Spain , he explains, the fund has invested 700 million, but that number could rise to 1,000 million given the " good time " . "Nobody knows what will happen in the next semester. It is important because if you buy stocks may rise or fall by 10%, but a real estate investor who buys 10 or 15 years from now , the next six months will not have to worry , " he says. Deka , who returned to Spain in 2009 , yes have noticed the arrival of more funds. And the landing , he says, is not over. " When Spain recovers all be here ," riveting .
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