不況のせいでスペインを脱出(国外移民)した2008年から2012年までのスペイン国民は、700'000人で、公式には225'000人。スペイン国外に在住する大使館などに登録されたスペイン人は39'912人。
¿A cuántos españoles ha expulsado la crisis?
Los demógrafos discrepan sobre el número de salidas al extranjero
En algunos casos multiplican por tres la cifra oficial de 225.000
Falta un mecanismo estadístico capaz de registrarlas con rapidez
Jaime Prats Valencia 17 ENE 2014 - 21:59 CET
How many Spaniards have kicked the crisis?
Demographers disagree on the number of trips abroad
In some cases multiplied by three official figure of 225,000
Missing a statistical mechanism to register them quickly
Jaime Prats Valencia 17 ENE 2014 - 21:59 CET
What if the Spanish output abroad were not as massive as the feeling that has spread ? Thus proposes a study by Carmen González Enríquez , Real Instituto Elcano, from information consulates. The researcher notes that only 2% of national residents abroad are people born in Spain who have packed their bags by the crisis , just 39,912 people.
But what if the official data did not reflect what really happens and you were underestimating the emigration of nationals ? This is the view that defends Amparo González Ferrer, sociologist and demographer of the Higher Council for Scientific Research ( CSIC). For her the number of people who have left the country between 2008 and 2012- that is, the outputs of Spain , not the sum of nationals abroad , as stated in the earlier analysis of his colleague is closer to the 700,000 people of 225,000 officers.
The Spanish emigration. / EL PAIS
The loss of population in Spain by emigration is irrefutable in the light of the data. Yesterday, the standard published by the National Statistics Institute ( INE ), dated January 2013 , contains 135,538 inhabitants drop a year to 47,129,783 . There is also no doubt about the magnitude of the crisis , unemployment , especially youth , from 54 % - as well as human dramas derivatives collapse of living standards . But to what extent is high off the Spanish economy? In this respect there is a debate among the research community about the lack of a statistical mechanism able to record quickly and effectively the national game .
Carmen González Enríquez , Professor of Political Science at the National University of Distance Education ( UNED) , approached this issue after the public debate opened by the media coverage has been given to the departure of researchers (so-called brain drain ) and, in general , of qualified professionals . His conclusion is that the output of Spanish citizens is very low. "The speech that there is a mass exodus of people is an exaggerated statement and creates unnecessary alarm ," he says . In fact , the phenomenon is , in his view , so limited, even "ridiculous" number , wondering "why are not many more who decide to take the step of seeking better pay or living conditions in other countries."
There are other jobs that reflect similar conclusions. For example , the latest data from the INE migration . This report, records from the first half of 2013 , shows how Spain lost population and that this is due to its negative migration balance .
During the first six months of last year 259,227 people left the country , but for the overwhelming majority ( 219,537 ) were foreigners. That is in line with that observed by González Enríquez , only 10 % of people who left the country during the period analyzed ( 26,281 ) were born in Spain .
Elcano Institute investigator does not put the focus on the output data (migration ) , but the pattern of Spaniards living abroad ( PERE ) , a document which prepares the INE entries from migrants make in offices consular . According to these records, the number of native Spaniards ( excluding nationalized ) living abroad has only increased by 6 % ( 39,912 persons) between January 2009 and January 2013. While in 2009 there were 633,750 , in 2012 was 673,662 . Of these, 20,000 are in Europe, 7,000 in Latin America and another 13,000 in the rest of the world.
"It's a good analysis ," says Albert Esteve , Center for Demographic Studies (CED ) of the Autonomous University of Barcelona. " Both official output data [ INE ] and destination [ EERP ] may underestimate to some extent the people coming out of Spain and is not recorded , but in general , do not speak for a large percentage of people who going , "he adds .
González Enríquez considers the concern sparked national migration is directly related to the Spanish society "was unusually still for decades" , especially since in the seventies ended the great migratory wave of Franco. According to González Enríquez , stay close to the family home of parents and friends "has been a priority for the majority" , which explains not only the reluctance to leave the country , but " the current alarm " which , he insists, " does not hold in relation to the actual figures . "
"The experience of the sixties weighs heavily on the current situation in terms of national pride ," he adds . So , as I said , not only there was a mass exodus of Spaniards abroad . In addition , it was rural , unskilled , whose destiny was to occupy the lowest positions in industry or construction sector of the countries attending . It remains in the collective imagination , he argues, " the negative memories " of the departure of cheap labor to foreign destinations . Now , however , only leave workers with university education. " For those who leave , to move out and find a job there is a blessing . And this does not harm the Spanish economy. Right now , the problem is the lack of credit, not qualified , " he says.
The researcher is aware that their work gives wings to government thesis , committed to sweeten and take the consequences seriously (poverty, rising inequality , loss of purchasing power , the vital blow to expectations ) that caused the economic collapse in Spanish society. " I know this issue is very politically charged , but what can I do" , he says. "I've come to this conclusion with the data that I have handled , without any bias , and I have come across the situation I describe ."
Esteve , meanwhile , agrees with the idea that Spain has not become a country of emigration. " The bulk of the migration dynamics is played basically nationalized by foreigners or persons of foreign origin ," explains , as evidenced by the INE data. For this demographer center of the Autonomous University of Barcelona, the current migration responds to a situation rebalancing after the avalanche of foreigners who received Spain in the last decade . "Above all adjustments is not immigrants who have settled in the country. There is some Spanish population , but it is not leading the bulk of migration statistics , "he insists .
" The departure of skilled population outside Spain is a shame, is a worrying phenomenon that educated people can not settle and develop professionally in Spain , but this is different issue affecting many people," he says. "The task of the sociologist and demographer is to analyze and quantify the phenomena ."
These analyzes showing modest numbers of Spaniards out based on data provided by both the INE as the standard of living abroad ( PERE ) . But Amparo González Ferrer , Center for Humanities and Social Sciences ( CCHS ) , CSIC these numbers are useless. No precise indicators to throw questions that matter to size the emigration of nationals : how many Spaniards are leaving and when they did.
For one, because all drink from the same data source : consular records. The INE data migrations or low in the pattern occur - kitchen with some statistics from other estimates , if the emigrants are enlisted in the PERE . That is, John Pérez is given in the low register of Sevilla , and as an emigrant figure for INE- when has your high consulate in Hannover ( collecting PERE ) .
The problem is that neither Juan Pérez and most Spaniards leaving the country usually register with consulates , so González Ferrer thinks there's a ghost of national migrants not counted bag.
CSIC researcher explains that to register you must show that they remain in the country at least a year , what is needed for a work permit for at least this period of time, a condition not met many Spanish arrival at the new destination. In addition , the high consular just brings benefits ( such as voting by mail) and is an uncomfortable procedure. You have to scroll down and involves in the census in Spain , representing loss doctor in the town of origin or rights to access , for example, to public housing .
Therefore, many of the Spaniards abroad only enroll at the consulate if they have no choice - renew the passport , enrolling some of their children -which can happen after months or years of life abroad .
González Enríquez , the Elcano Institute , is aware that not all Spaniards migrating enroll at consular offices. At the risk of data handling were much lower than the actual , compared figures PERE with the Spanish population statistics from Germany , UK, France and Switzerland ( countries collect 76% of the Spanish emigration offices in Europe). And the conclusion is that the information of consulates is even higher than the statistical records of the countries of destination, and thus concluded that their study " does not underestimate the number of Spaniards abroad ."
But in addition to underreporting consulates , Amparo González- Ferrer highlights another issue why not give reliability to the official way of measuring national output . PERE reports show a still picture of living abroad , ie , the balance ( the difference) between the high and low in the consular records at any given time . "With the still picture you do not see the flows in and out of town , where the information is ," he says . For example , young people of working age are going and returning are retired .
In order to have accurate data entry of Spanish in different countries, the researcher has come to the official data of the Spanish arrival in the UK ( the statistical variations of residential , another source used by the INE to update the registry ) and compared with the British records ( applications for registration in the UK social security , an essential process) . The result is that the UK figures are up to seven times more numerous than the Spanish official data ( the same study compared to six German data multiplies the INE ) .
"Given this high underreporting of figures ," says González Ferrer, is "more than likely" that the Spanish emigration since the crisis began is three times higher than the figures recorded by sources published by the INE, ie 700,000 people compared to 225,000 officers.
It's a big difference, although it must be borne in mind that these figures are limited to post the outputs, so that among these 700,000 people, and 225,000 will be some official - they return . In addition , unlike the study of his colleague , included Spanish nationalized. And they are many. Do not forget that Ecuador is the fourth destination for Spanish emigrants (after France, Germany and the UK ) , due to the number of naturalized returning .
" Perhaps there is no rate of mass output of Spanish , but you can not deny the evidence of flows that increase ," said González- Ferrer , which highlights the need to review the official statistics to measure more reliably the movement of population .
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