アメリカ合衆国の投資危険測定会社のMOODY'Sは、スペインの銀行の資本増強の融資額は700億0000'0000ユーロから1050億0000'0000ユーロと推定、(スペインの銀行の公式の不良債権額は2270億0000'0000ユーロで、この内どれ位が損失になるか?たぶん65%?くらい1500億0000'0000ユーロ?)
REFORMA FINANCIERA
La recapitalización de la banca española puede ser insuficiente, según Moody’s
La agencia cree que se necesitarán entre 70.000 y 105.000 millones
Fitch cree que España incumplirá el objetivo de déficit de 2013
EFE Economía / El País Madrid 1 OCT 2012 - 18:44 CET
FINANCIAL REFORM
The recapitalization of Spanish banks may be insufficient, according to Moody's
The agency believes that it will take between 70,000 and 105,000 million
Fitch believes that Spain will default on 2013 deficit target
Economy EFE / El País Madrid 1 OCT 2012 - 18:44 CET
The risk measurement agency Moody's believes that the 53,700 million euros it needs Spanish banks, said Friday as the consultancy Oliver Wyman, may be insufficient to restore investor confidence and to ensure the stability of the sector. If markets are "escépicos" on these tests, "no confidence could undermine government efforts to fully restore confidence in the solvency of the Spanish banks," said the agency, which otherwise must publish its findings on soon review process of the Spanish credit rating, which is just one step away from falling into the junk bond level.
Specifically, Moody's estimates that Spanish banks will need between 70,000 and 105,000 million euros to recapitalize and deal with potential losses, a figure much higher than those estimated by Oliver Wyman. Despite his misgivings, the agency recognizes that the process of recapitalization of banks is positive and will help to improve the solvency of the institutions concerned and to restore confidence in the Spanish financial sector as a whole.
Moody's explains that many of the assumptions used in the performance of Oliver Wyman are "conservative", although other substantially reducing capital loss could be questioned. This section highlights the evidence of the consultant considered that the capital requirements in the scenarios bases and side must be different, because they believe that macroeconomic conditions in the adverse scenario have a very low probability of giving, while Moody's uses the same levels .
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He also believes that the absence of a market that allows a more transparent valuation of real estate assets, expects investors pay more attention to detailed scrutiny applied to the valuation of portfolios of loans and foreclosed assets, as well as the largest and more specific information by banking groups.
Overall, the agency believes that the immediate recapitilización Spanish banks is "inherently positive" for the ratings of all Spanish banks, it includes more banks and more capital than previous efforts, adding that the only group of creditors that are not benefit from this process are hybrid debt holders or subordnada of entities that are rescued.
In his view, a "good test" to see if these tests are conservative enough to restore market confidence will be successful the Spanish government to attract private investors as shareholders independent bad bank. In this regard, he recalled that previous efforts to attract capital to the 'bad bank' have failed because investors expect the assets are transferred at a price that allows a sale in the short term with a reasonable profit.
Fitch does not change the note of Spain but believes that it will break the deficit
Fitch is unlikely to change the rating of Spain until at least next year, said the director of the agency in a statement to Bloomberg TV. Fitch has a BBB rating for Spain, just a step from junk status with a negative outlook. "Let's give Spain the opportunity to progress on some issues that are important to your score," he added.
Asked about how long you convince Spain to its current rating Fitch, Riley replied: "Surely even into next year. Anticipate not take any action before that time." Riley also warned that growth forecasts referred to in Spanish Budget for 2013 might be too optimistic.
In a press release, the agency however, despite repeated its intention not to modify the note, said he does not believe that Spain will meet the deficit target. "The Government reiterated its deficit target for next year at 4.5% of GDP. Believe that this goal is unlikely to be achieved (expect 5%), growth is unlikely to achieve the government's expectations (we expect negative growth of 1.5% next year, compared to the Government expected fall of 0.5%) and unemployment is also likely to slightly exceed ". A significant deviation, the firm warned, would "negative ratings".
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