欧州連合の不況による金融危機と財政危機の問題を解決出来ないでいると、不況が経済行進国にも波及して、世界的不況になる危険性あり
Europa y EE UU juegan con fuego
La incapacidad de los países ricos para resolver sus retos amenaza con provocar una recesión generalizada. El impacto de la crisis de los países ricos se contagia hacia los emergentes
Miguel Jiménez Tokio 14 OCT 2012 - 01:15 CET
Europe and the U.S. are playing with fire
The inability of rich countries to solve their challenges threatens to cause a global recession. The impact of the crisis in rich countries towards emerging spreads
Miguel Jimenez Tokyo 14 OCT 2012 - 01:15 CET
Japanese proverb says that the wood does not get hot fiancee's house. The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, challenged that saying in September. He promised unlimited burn wood in the markets and everyone started to feel warmth. But they have to go get firewood hesitate. Maybe they're playing with fire.
From Japan, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, has called this week "urgent and courageous action" in the euro area, the main focus of global economic concerns. But not the only one. Fund economists have painted a doomsday scenario if the U.S. does not approve a new debt ceiling or tax falls on the precipice, that is, the drastic spending cuts and tax increases that would take effect automatically if no political agreement prevents it. Japan is going through a phase of political instability and leads hobbled for 20 years (a period in which the average annual growth was 0.8% and the cumulative inflation, the 20 years together, is the same as that Spain has had just last month, 0.7%). And China can not get domestic demand takes over exports, hit by the slowdown in the developed economies.
With that scenario in the four major world economies, it is no wonder that the IMF concluded that "the risks of a severe global slowdown are alarmingly high," according to the report released this week by its chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, in Tokyo, with occasion of the annual meeting of the international organization.
moreThe crisis leaves a lost decade for the peripheral countries of the euroThe cuts hamper growth over what was believedRisks "alarmingly high" of a global slowdown, according to the FundSpain, the world's TailThe IMF fears that the Spanish raw triggering up to 750 pointsDraghi said that monitoring will not arrive until 2014 onlyLagarde minimizes differences with Germany on adjustments
Fund staff still believe that emerging economies will achieve save global growth, but are aware of contagion: "Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging and developing economies, through channels commercial and financial, in addition to their own weaknesses, "said Blanchard, dating back to 2009, the year of the Great Recession, to note that, as then," foreign trade proves to be a surprisingly powerful channel of contagion. "
Blanchard, who this week has caused a small earthquake in Japan with his study of the effect of the cuts on growth (greater than was thought in other reports), regrets that the global economy there is "a general feeling of uncertainty" and extreme risks, such as those relating to the viability of the euro zone or that serious mistakes in U.S. fiscal policy, continue to worry.
The Fund this week downgraded back its growth forecasts for this year and next, though stays above 3% in the overall global economy. "The biggest change since the spring assembly is that the slowdown in growth and affects not only the developed economies, but also to emerging markets, especially in Asia," he said Christine Lagarde, referring to the study.
In addition, the Fund from a premise that some private analysts are not so clear: the euro zone ("the epicenter of the crisis," in the words of Lagarde) fix their problems promptly and U.S. reaching political agreement on the precipice tax. The IMF itself admits: "If any two critical assumptions about policy responses is not met, global activity could deteriorate dramatically", supports the body.
The euro zone, dangerously close to recession
The risk is there: there is a chance that in six global growth falls below 2%, which would mean a recession in advanced economies and slow growth in emerging and developing countries. Only six months ago, the IMF said there was a probability of 1 in 25. And, in the case of the euro area, the probability of an entry is already in recession 85%, according to the Global Projection Model Fund economists. That is, they take for granted, when just six months ago the chances were no more than 50%. Indeed, although the data are not known, it is possible that between July and September is consummated that second consecutive quarterly fall in gross domestic product (GDP). Followed by Japan, with a 30% probability of recession by the first quarter of next year and the U.S., with just over 15%, according to estimates in the report World Economic Outlook, prepared by the Fund.
The IMF estimates that the probability of recession in the euro zone is 85%
"A key question is whether the world economy is just going through a phase of further turmoil in what was always planned as a slow and uneven recovery, or if the current slowdown has a more durable component," says the study.
And the key is primarily in the euro zone. Lagarde acknowledged that there are "good and bad news." The good news is the step in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy debt of those countries requesting a bailout and subject to the conditions and the entry into force of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The bad, almost all others, such as harassment of the peripheral countries markets, financial fragmentation, capital flight, the worsening recession in the rescued and recurring delays in implementing decisions, including need for each operation of the ESM is approved by various parliaments. "It is a compromise between financial efficiency and democracy," said Lagarde. In one of the many side events to the assembly of the Fund that have developed this week in Tokyo, the governor of the Bank of France, Christian Noyer, elaborated on this idea: "The times of the markets are not democracy. The doubts and delays create nervousness, volatility and investor concerns. " A market not just promises. Firewood promised not heat the house.
"Times are not market-democracy," said Noyer
Central bankers have taken most of the flowers in this meeting of the Fund. The ECB, for its bond purchase program, and the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, for their stimulus policies. "Central banks have acted. Now it is up to the governments, "said the head of the Fund's financial area, the Spanish José Viñals.
Viñals stressed that markets should perceive the possibility of bond purchases by the ECB as real, not virtual. Investors mistrust whether countries need not ask the rescue who must approve or refuse.
Meanwhile, the deepening recession has condemned almost all the European periphery to a lost decade in terms of economic growth. "More than a lost decade, a decade of adjustments. It is painful and necessary, "noted Peter Praet, chief economist of the European Central Bank at a conference commemorating the 30th anniversary of the IIF, the lobby of the big global banks.
In those same days, the vice president and managing director of Banco Santander, Alfredo Saenz, praised the new approach to possible ECB bond buying and opted for a more "European integration", in which "the union bank must be the first step. " "It is essential to create a stronger European economy and a more resilient banking system. We have a roadmap and we must move as quickly as possible, "he said. Recognizing that "the Spanish disease is serious but not lethal," Saenz defended the big steps being taken by the Spanish economy to correct its imbalances and, in particular, the financial restructuring process, which is coming to an end and after the that "probably less than 10 will be relevant entities and the system will be stronger, efficient and competitive."
Without growth there low debt and high debt growth slows
The IMF argues that Europe eagerly forward in union bank. He said Blanchard, has said Viñals, Lagarde has said. Germany seems to have less enthusiasm. His finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, did not seem very happy with the view of the IMF that the adjustments do more harm to the economy than previously thought. They reporters accompanying him that when initially asked why he had to say about his answer was blunt and sharp: "Nothing." Then, insisted his thesis with a comparison: if you climb a mountain and you start to fall, the mountain will be increasingly high. Schauble, moreover, tried something relativize the importance of the euro crisis: "Europe is not the source of all problems in the world," he said at an event shared with Lagarde.
USA and Japan, also in the spotlight
Indeed, the IMF agrees with that. The other focus points to U.S.. Fiscal Affairs Director of the Fund, Cotarelli Carlo, made it clear that the adjustment of 4% of GDP would mean the tax cliff called the U.S. would enter a recession. And if not achieved authorization to increase the debt ceiling, even worse, "the mother of all tax cliffs" with a setting of 8% to force deficit reduction to zero at once.
But in the U.S. (and Japan) are needed, according to the Fund, credible strategies for debt reduction over the medium and long term. The very low interest rates to pay these countries are not guaranteed forever. "The need to renew public debt is still very high and expose countries to the vagaries of the financial markets," says Cotarelli. And debt is huge in all advanced economies, which will slow the recovery.
"Perhaps the biggest obstacle is the heavy burden of debt, with an average of 110% of GDP in advanced economies, the largest since World War II," Christine Lagarde said Friday. It is a vicious circle here. Reducing public debt is extremely difficult without growth, but a high level of debt that hampers growth.
Alfredo Sáenz: "Spain's disease is serious, but non-lethal"
For now, the developed countries are almost all ear pulling. For the emerging have been told they are not complacent. "I would like that to be what they had to say to me," he joked in Tokyo Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos. Spain goes to the second worst GDP growth forecast for 2013 of the 188 UN member nations, down 1.3%, just better than Greece.
But the truth is also emerging and developed countries, as noted Lagarde, have begun to notice more and more the threat of contagion in highly globalized economy, where consumption falls in Europe means less exports in China.
Crisis that developed countries do not finish cause global relapse into recession depends largely on the actions of the authorities in Europe and the U.S. in the coming months, is the summary of the diagnosis made by the IMF World Economic . "The choice today is between taking the necessary policy measures, even if they are hard, or delayed again in the false hope that time is on our side," said Viñals. "It does."
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