世界の多くの地域で政治情勢は不確実性(不透明)とカオス(混沌·混乱)と化している
OPINIÓN
Una nueva época
El panorama político en muchas partes del mundo ha dado un vuelco hacia la incertidumbre y el caos
Mauro Guillén / Emilio Ontiveros 14 OCT 2012 - 00:01 CET
OPINION
A new era
The political landscape in many parts of the world has turned into uncertainty and chaos
Mauro Guillén / Emilio Ontiveros 14 OCT 2012 - 00:01 CET
This century has not yet reached adolescence and has already developed its own personality and unique. In the book (*) that this text serves as an introduction to address the challenges we face. It is an exercise over future projection of past trends, but an analysis of the major global trend changes that are transforming the world. These are the most important of those analyzed in the book:
The imbalances in the world economy. Considered advanced economies, with the exception of Germany and Japan, have large trade deficits, while most notable emerging surpluses enjoy. After two decades of strong economic growth, emerging economies now account for roughly half of global economic activity. They are strengthening their financial power: hold two-thirds of the foreign exchange reserves of which are accumulating daily additional $ 2,000 million. A further feature of the XXI century intractable is that most of the changes seem to be paradoxical. In this case, the rise of emerging economies is allowing hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, it also poses complex challenges in terms of job losses in the developed world, the competition for energy and natural resources and global economic and financial governance.
Multinational companies from emerging markets are expanding like wildfire worldwide. From being a marginal phenomenon now represent in 2010, 25% of the 500 largest companies in the world, 29% of the total number of multinational companies and the source of 41% of foreign direct investment flows in the last five years . The paradox: its growing power and competitiveness is not necessarily based on the possession of technology or marketing skills. They have rewritten the rules of business competition primarily for their own benefit at the expense of traditional multinationals OECD.
The demographics are changing rapidly. For the first time ever, Japan and several Western European countries have invested their pyramids of population age and have more people over 60 than under 20. Also for the first time, more people live in cities than in the countryside, and those suffering from obesity outweigh the hungry. The decrease in the average number of children born to each woman has been much faster in Europe, East Asia (especially China and Japan) and, to a lesser extent, North America. Women in these regions now have economic opportunities, social policies and much better. But these societies are aging rapidly. In the first decade of the century, the world has become predominantly urban. For the first time in history more people live in cities than in the countryside. Competition for natural resources now affects not only scarce minerals, but also to food and water.
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The political landscape in many parts of the world has turned into uncertainty and chaos. For the first time since the Second World War there are more countries in the world that failed states that are ruled by dictators. In general, there is a marked decline in the legitimacy and state capacity in both the developed and the developing countries. If there is a puzzle that will probably haunt us for the XXI century is why democracy has made great progress as the dominant form of government in the world while at the same time, the number of failed states has proliferated. This trend has caused major problems in the economy and trade and terrorism has become the dominant form of violent conflict, while in the twentieth century were the wars.
An increasingly unequal world. Although income inequality between countries has decreased since the beginning of the XXI century due to the emergence of emerging market economies, inequality within countries has continued to increase, raising difficult political and social problems in the developed countries and in the developing. It is paradoxical that poverty is reduced even in countries where inequality is increasing.
Sustainability has become a key priority. Top scientists predict that, without corrective action, climate change will become irreversible at some critical point in this century. By 2030, food prices could double compared to 2012 and half the world's population could be affected by severe water shortages. Growth in emerging economies has been accompanied by environmental degradation. In both developed and developing is to the pursuit of sustainability. The emphasis is not only on energy, but also in the production and consumption of goods and ecological services. Agriculture, construction and tourism have also become targets of these efforts to achieve sustainability. Technology and behavior change are presented as solutions.
The global balance of power is changing rapidly. During most of the century, India will be the world's most populous country, China's largest producer and the U.S. the richest among the major economies in terms of per capita income.
Another paradoxical trend is the new emphasis on good corporate governance, while state capacity is decreasing due to the spread of the ideology of a small state and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone.
These trend changes economic, demographic and geopolitical rapidly eroding U.S. dominance. as a major world power. In April 2011 the IMF shocked the American public with his prediction that the Chinese economy would be the largest in the world in 2016. The book explored the extent historical patterns in the rise and fall of dominant world powers help to understand the new situation created in this century, in which not one but several powers, can share the hegemony on the world stage.
Some will find it difficult to accept that the world order in which they were raised may be coming to an end. Others believe that the change is so wide that we can no longer take for granted. Both reactions are understandable, precisely because the changes are massive and affect many different aspects. Complexity is a fundamental feature of the contemporary global scene. Although risks were also important, the period of the Cold War never conveyed a sense of unbearable insecurity. The XXI century is different. It is the century of complexity combined with uncertainty, but it seems that we have the economic, political and geopolitical to cope.
(*) This article is a partial transcript of Chapter 1 of the book A New Era. Large first Century, edited by Gutenberg Galaxy. The original English translation, Turning Points Global (Cambridge University Press), is Viñuelas July.
Mauro Guillen is director of the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School (University of Pennsylvania). Emilio Ontiveros is professor at UAM. Both belong to the Academic Council of the School of Finance of Afi.
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