スペイン政府は、欧州中央銀行がスペインの国債購入した場合に、スペイン国債の金利が+200まで下がる保障が欲しいとほざく、ドイツ政府とグズグズがっ戦
España quiere que el BCE le garantice una prima de 200 puntos si pide el rescate
La falta de estas garantías, origen de las dudas de Rajoy a la hora de pedir la ayuda
Rajoy pedirá al Consejo Europeo un calendario para la unión bancaria
Miguel González Madrid 13 OCT 2012 - 23:27 CET
Spain wants the ECB guarantees a bonus of 200 points if you ask for the rescue
The absence of such guarantees, source Rajoy doubts when to ask for help
Rajoy will ask the European Council a timetable for the union bank
Miguel Gonzalez Madrid 13 OCT 2012 - 23:27 CET
The government wants to obtain assurances that the European Central Bank (ECB) will intervene in the secondary market to ensure that the risk premium Spanish bond down to approximately 200 points and remains at that level. The absence of such guarantees is at the origin of the doubts of Mariano Rajoy ask when the rescue, according to government sources, which say that the answer delay imminent Basque and Galician elections (October 21) and subsequently Catalan (November 25). They also reject German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, press to rescue Spain and can delay its submission to Parliament in a single package with the help of Cyprus and an extension granted to Greece.
The government says 200 points represent a differential "reasonable" bond between Spanish and German 10-year, given the economic situation of both countries, and the rest claims that responds to the uncertainty surrounding the survival of the euro. At the same time, estimated that 200 point differential that Spanish debt would be sustainable and could face Treasury maturities in the medium term, even without ransom. The Spanish prime closed Friday at 417 points and reached 638 in July, a level that could escalate again, and even exceed, if the intervention is definitely descartase.
The problem is that the ECB president, Mario Draghi, has made clear that it will launch the unlimited purchase program Spanish and Italian debt in the secondary market if their governments did not specifically ask the help of the European rescue fund, subject to "strict conditionality".
Government sources explained that the recovery of the Spanish economy must meet four requirements: who asks Spain; accepting the terms; than establishing its objectives, and it is approved by all partners. So far it has been emphasizing on the conditions, arguing that these could force further cuts in social benefits, but the government considers most important goal: that the ECB accepts intervene whenever necessary to stabilize the premium risk around 200 points.
Financing at a reasonable price
For the government, this is an essential point, because his goal is not out of the capital markets (such as Greece and Portugal have done), but continue to finance them, but at a reasonable price. Failure to achieve this goal, Spain could find that had demanded a ransom that does not really want without getting down the cost of its debt, the sources added.
The Government does not rule out the risk of another major operation: requesting rescue and this can not be implemented because they go the Parliament of any partner (such as Finnish, where the Eurosceptics have great weight), leaving the already battered itself low credibility of the Spanish economy.
This danger can be circumvented if the aid is channeled through the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), where decisions can be taken with 85% of the vote, and no provisional fund, which would require unanimity of the partners.
As he gets close the deal, Rajoy will go to Brussels on Thursday for the purpose of the European Council to commit to a timetable for implementation of the banking union. Although the meeting is informal, the Spanish president wants to move forward with a road map that allows the European Council in December, regular and lay the foundations of the single regulator for European banks, so that it can enter into force in early 2013, as agreed in June. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, however cooled yesterday that goal since 2014 said that perhaps no single supervisor is operational.
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, was resounding in a press conference yesterday in Tokyo: "Spain will support the union bank as fast as possible," he said. According to the executive, a decisive blow in this common scheme would help dispel doubts about the strength of the euro, in time, allow direct recapitalization of Spanish banks, allowing the state to alleviate the debt burden of cleaning up the financial system. Rajoy also do everything possible to prevent Greece be expelled from the euro zone, not only by European conviction but because he fears that, open the door, it can push other countries like Spain.
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