スペインの国債の金利が一時的に低迷しているので、緊急に欧州中央銀行にスペイン国債の購入の申請をする必要はないが、申請すれば、企業の融資の金利も下るので文句はないが。。。
El rescate (por ahora) puede esperar
Los empresarios creen que la petición de ayuda exterior ya no urge
Reconocen, eso sí, que si esta medida se activase beneficiaría su financiación
Carlos Gómez / David Fernández 27 ENE 2013 - 00:00 CET
The rescue (for now) can expect
Entrepreneurs believe that the request for foreign aid and not urgent
Recognize, though, that if this measure would benefit funding activase
Carlos Gomez / David Fernandez 27 ENE 2013 - 00:00 CET
The gift is a set Tancredo bullfighting practiced mostly in the early twentieth century. The right-hander, according to this fate, waited in the center of the ring out of the bull was painted white and was raised in a sort of pedestal. The credit was to sit still with the hope that the animal confused with a marble statue and pass over discarding the onslaught by the hardness of the rock. The political style of Mariano Rajoy has not infrequently associated with this particular style for his love of bullfighting avoid problems, to let pass you by hurricanes and tropical storms ending in. On the subject of the request for external assistance to support the economy and calm the market Spanish President of the Government so far has remained stoic in the center of the ring. The strategy, for now, he is working and the support entrepreneurs; consider the redemption request is not necessary, although they recognize that if this mechanism was activated improve the financing of their companies.
One of the most complex Miura deal since the Prime Minister came to La Moncloa is the pressure of international investors in the financial markets arena. Escalating risk premium differential between what you pay for borrowing Spain about what Germany pays-is not only a great burden to the public purse, but also for businesses as expensive funding.
52% have a negative value the first year in power the Government
Last June, the Executive formally asked the European Union helps to clean up the financial system. This costly sacrifice-politically and economically speaking, did not prevent the risk premium touched a record high a month later. The market was closed for any Spanish debt issuance and increased the voices calling for a second bailout, this time for the country as a whole. Rajoy, as Don Tancredo, has since then remained silent waiting for the reforms surtieran effect.
The reaction of the risk premium at the moment supports this tactic since dropped from 638 basis points to 353 basis points. Yes, the bull stopped lunging because the government has relied on its particular coat of marble: the European Central Bank (ECB) has promised to activate secondary market purchases of debt if a State formally requests the rescue. That latent threat has deterred many investors to bet against Spain to avoid catching fingers.
The lower market pressure has resulted in the opening of a window of financing for companies in the first weeks of 2013. In this context, the directors consider that the Spanish Government does not currently need to activate a second bailout mechanism, according to the Business Barometer prepared by Deloitte. The majority of respondents, 79%, believes that foreign aid should not be made without closing conditions previously with the European Union and the ECB, while 47% favor the bailout recognizes corporate funding.
Labor reform is far more Rajoy applauded by managers
Since it is made the Government Barometer disapproval by entrepreneurs reached its highest level during the last term of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. The coming to power of the Popular Party and the way we got (large parliamentary majority) did that Spanish managers harbored high hopes for a change of economic course by the new government. A year later, those expectations have not been fulfilled. 52% of employers negatively assesses the first year of government of Rajoy, 24% believed that the balance has been positive and the remaining 24% had no significant effect.
One of the first measures taken by the Government was adopting a deep popular labor reform whose most obvious consequence is a lowering of the conditions of dismissal. Indeed, of the actions taken by the Executive, the most valued by managers is the liberalization of the labor market, with 47% of participants showing their agreement Barometer and only 7% valuing it negatively. Instead, the major disagreements occur in fiscal measures, rejected by 76% and in the research and development issues (69%).
Administrations have settled their debts with 60% of companies
Entrepreneurs believe that the solution to the crisis is at home and depends on the measures taken Rajoy and his economic team. Not surprisingly, when asked which variable affecting the Spanish economy over 62% choose the average impact of economic and government tax. The second place is the economic development of other European countries.
In recent years there has been much talk about rising defaults of firms and households, but the large number of unpaid bills in the drawers of the different public administrations was a headache for many companies. In this sense, the situation has improved. 60% of participants in the study claimed to have no outstanding invoices to various public authorities.
The public sector, as well as catch up with some of its debts, is in full containment in spending to meet deficit targets committed to Brussels. When asked if they believe the private sector can compensate for the adjustment's ahead for the public sector in 2013, nearly 80% of employers responding negatively.
In relation to other economic variables, most employers (56%) expected to maintain its current price euro against the dollar during the first half of the year. It also reduces the number of respondents who expected a drop in interest rates in the euro zone for the first half of the year compared to the previous wave. As regards the price of oil, the directors believe that in this period the price of a barrel of Brent will range between 110 and 110 dollars.
Normally, people who made the gift Tancredo bullfighters were desperate seeking easy money. This lot was disappearing because of the dangers entailed, as many of its practitioners were overwhelmed by the bull. It is true that the Spanish risk premium has fallen in recent months, but the 10-year bond remains around 5%, a level of funding still very demanding.
Technical
In this edition of the Business Barometer 273 companies have participated whose combined turnover exceeds one trillion euros and employing over a million people. The Deloitte team is led by Felix Losada and coordinated by Elena King. Juan Carlos Cid, Alejandro Gonzalez de Aguilar and Juan Manuel Martinez, with the participation of Patricia García Escamilla, Isabel Beltrán de Heredia and María Álvarez González, perform technical development. The advice section six of this issue, "Cybersecurity" have contributed Pablo Pérez Gómez and Marcos National Institute of Communication Technologies Centre of Information Security (INTECO), and by Deloitte; Fernando Picatoste, Miguel and Ruben Frieiro Rego.
Study Design: A cross-sectional survey questionnaire in two waves per year. The current study is the second half of 2012.
Scope: national.
Universe: Composed of companies based in Spain and 2400 determined by the principal suppliers within each sector.
Sample obtained: 273 companies.
Questionnaire: self-applied by electronic and paper mail.
Fieldwork: December 2012, January 2013.
The information provided by each of the panel members is strictly confidential, and have remained in obscurity companies that have requested it. Attached is a list of names of authorized members of the panel.
Panellists
Abengoa, Abertis Infrastructures; Oils Toledo; Acieroid; Acorex, Aegon Insurance, Aena (Spanish Airports and Air Navigation) Cooperative Group Jerte Valley, Works and Services Group Guinovart Hispania Fuensanta Water, Air Liquide Spain; Alier; Alsimet; An S.Coop.; Andres Pintaluba; Applus +; Arag Company International Insurance and Reinsurance; Areas; Arteixo Telecom; Asepeyo; Asprodibe, Atos Origin, Atlantic Highway, CESA, Avanade; Axesor Meet to Decide; Azulev; Banco Caixa Geral , Spanish Cooperative Bank, Bank Investment Fund Spain, Salamanca and Soria (BCEISS), Banco de Sabadell, Banco Popular, Bankia, Bankinter, BASF Coatings, Bayer; Bingo Plaza; Biosearch; BMCE Bank International, BNP Paribas, Bodegas Riojanas; Brammer Iberia, Box 3, Caja Rural de Asturias, Caja Rural de Burgos, Fuentepelayo, and Castelldans Segovia, Caja Rural de Granada, Caja Rural de Soria, Caja Rural de Teruel; Cajasiete, Caja Rural, Oviedo Chamber of Commerce; Catalunya Banc , Cementos Portland Valderrivas; Chemo Ibérica; CHM works and infrastructure; Clariana; Clece, International Book Club Direct Marketing; Cofidis; Insurance Company Spanish Export Credit (CESCE) Spanish Aeronautical Systems Company (CESA) Logistics Company Hydrocarbons - CLH, Olive Oil Company Refining and Packaging; Comsa Emte; Spanish Confederation of Savings Banks (CECA); Confortel Hotels, Consum, Continental Automotive Spain; Goods and Works Construction Company; Coop. Camp D'Ivars d'Urgell Credit Section I; Copcisa; Copreci; Corpfin Capital; Peñasanta Food Corporation (CAPSA) ONCE Business Corporation (CEOSA); Covirán; Credit and Surety; Deblas - Arriva Group, DHL Express, DHL Supply Chain Spain, Diego Zamora, Diners Club Spain; Diode Spain; Distributions Froiz; Distrimedios; Domecq Wines Spain (Bodegas Domecq) in core markets Supply (Mercasa) EADS - CASA; Elcogás; Emasesa; Empresa Municipal de Aguas de Málaga ( EMASA); Ence Energy and Pulp, Epcos Electronic Components, Spain 2025; Establiments Miró, Europe Arab Bank, Fabrica, Slaughterhouse and cutting (Famadesa); FCC Logistics; Federico Paternina; Ferro Spain; Fertiberia; Feu Vert Iberian Mutual Fiatc; Figueras International Seating; Fraternity Muprespa; Ductile Iron; Galfrío, Gas Natural Fenosa, Geodis Bourgey Montreuil Iberian Girbau; Grup Baucells Alimentacio; Grup Lasem, ACS; Agro Sevilla Group, Grupo Aguas de Valencia; Copo Business Group, Grupo Cosentino; Group Erhardt ; Group TSI Felix Solis Avantis Group, Generali Group Spain, Helios Group, Hesperia Investment Group, Group Julia; Lacasa Group, Grupo Leche Pascual, Grupo Mahou-San Miguel; Multiasistencia Group, Grupo Santillana Spain, Zurich Group, Hansa Urbana, Havas Media, HC Energía, Hella, Sons of Luis Rodriguez Himoinsa; Hortofrutícola Costa de Almería, Vasco-Leonesa Hullera; Idom; Igualatorio Medical Surgical (IMQ); Imesapi (Electrical Installations and Facilities and Sanitation); Importaco, Titan Industries; Ingeteam Corporation , JCB Machines, JP Morgan, Julia Travel Central, Julian Rus Cañibano; Juliano Bonny Gomez JVC Spain; Keraben, La Seda de Barcelona, La Vanguardia Editions; Liberbank, Liberty Seguros, Linde Material Handling Iberian Direct Line Insurance, Luis Caballero , Maier, Mapfre, Martin Casillas; Maxam; Mecalux (Group) Michelin Spain and Portugal; Miquel Alimentació Group; Mondragón Cooperative Corporation; Mutua Universal - Mugenat MATEPSS; Mutual Midat Cyclops; NCG Banco, Nintendo Iberian Peninsular Ontex; Oracle Ibérica; Orange - France Telecom; Orizonia; Pañalón; Pelayo Mutual Insurance; Perez Rumbao; Pescapuerta, Pierre Fabre Ibérica; Ultra Plus Insurance, Prenatal, Random House Mondadori, RBC Investor Services Spain, Spain's Red Electrica (REE), Repsol; Ricoh Spain; Ros Roca Environment, SA Damm, Sanitas, Sanofi-Aventis, St. Lucia; Scalevante; Semat; Setram; SGD La Granja, Sniace, Post Office State Society, Sociedad General de Aguas de Barcelona (Agbar) Iberian Electric Construction Company ( SICE); Sonepar Ibérica, Stora Enso Barcelona Anton Teixido Industrial Electrical Supplies, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (Representative Office in Spain), Suzuki Motor Iberica, fibreboard; Takeda; Techniques Reunidas; Terra Spain, Tesa Tape, Textile Santanderina; Thales Spain; Toys R'Us Iberia; Transportes Ochoa; Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona (TMB), Tubacex; Tubos Reunidos, UCI, Ube Corporation Europe; Unit 4 Business Software Ibérica, UPM-Kymmene, valves Arco; Volkswagen Navarra; Whirlpool Iberia.
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