スペインの2012年の公的債務はgdpの7'3%とFUNCAS(LaFundacion de Cajas de Ahoro)は推定
Funcas estima que el déficit público cerró 2012 en el 7,3% del PIB
La Fundación de Cajas de Ahorro considera que la desviación en las cuentas públicas en 2013 será del 5,6% del PIB, un punto más de lo previsto
El INE empeora la caída del PIB en el cuarto trimestre al 0,7%
J. S. GONZÁLEZ 30 ENE 2013 - 13:20 CET
Funcas estimated deficit ended 2012 at 7.3% of GDP
The Savings Banks Foundation believes that the deviation in the public accounts in 2013 will be 5.6% of GDP, one point more than expected
The INE worsens the decline in GDP in the fourth quarter to 0.7%
J. S. GONZALEZ 30 ENE 2013 - 13:20 CET
It is expected that all public authorities have closed 2012 with a deficit of 7.3% of GDP, not including aid-financial institutions, which is one percentage point higher than the government forecast and online with market consensus, "the Foundation of Savings Banks (Func) in the latest issue of Journal of Economic Information released this morning.
Complied Funcas calculations, the deficit of the whole general government would target one percentage point over the target committed to Brussels, at 6.3% of GDP, says Angel Laborda, author.
The Situation and Statistics Director of the Foundation believes that Spain will continue in 2013 to reduce the public deficit. "The results in terms of fiscal consolidation have been in this year (2012) is significant and that are also expected in 2013." Although Laborda warns of the strong pace of deficit reduction. In fact, assume that the budget shortfall in 2013 will be higher than expected. "Forcing more machine-type Laborda-restrictive cause excessive impact on the growth of aggregate demand and employment, with negative consequences in the process of clearing the current financial system and, ultimately, the very process of fiscal consolidation "said Laborda.
moreTax increases revenues allow squaring FinanceDeficit of 11,800 million in Social Security, not counting interest of the FundContributory pensions exceeding nine million
Funcas explains that the State had met the target set and have closed 2012 with a deficit of just below 4.5%. However, both Social Security and the regions will have been diverted from the forecasts. "The disappointment may be far from the objectives has its cause in the fact that they have always been unrealistic in efforts".
Social Security, which should have ended in balance, there could be a deficit of 0.85%, due to lower revenue growth, the negative trends in employment and higher wages and increased costs for the increase contributory pensions and unemployment benefits.
The calculation made Laborda the imbalance of the autonomous communities is that they could have closed 2012 with a deficit of 1.9%, reaching the target four-tenths (1.5%).
Regarding the deficit forecast for 2013, to be located Funcas estimated at 5.6% of GDP, 1.1 percentage points above the target force (4.5%). The reason is "basically" the deviation of 2012 that "this year will crawl and different macroeconomic starting". In any case, since Funcas believe that "you've got a new deficit reduction which is further progress in fiscal consolidation."
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