スペインの金融機関の銀行の"試験"、経営状態の"正体"は? 不良債権"隠し"を暴くと
¿A la tercera va la vencida?
La mitad de las entidades suspende en el tercer examen al sector en tres años
Íñigo de Barrón / Miguel Jiménez 30 SEP 2012 - 00:00 CET
To the third time lucky?
Half of the entities suspended in the third sector review in three years
Inigo Barron / Miguel Jimenez 30 SEP 2012 - 00:00 CET
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, not win friends among bankers. The sector upset by the harshness of Oliver Wyman tests is very high. Especially those who have been truncated future plans or, even worse, those who have been forced into a merger or nationalization, which will mark the end of the institution. Five years ago, Spain had 57 boxes and relevant entities between banks. Now 14 groups have examined relevant, which will be in about eight or ten after the end of the restructuring. It was the third review to banking in three years and the third with suspense. It remains to see if last.
Of the 14 groups examined, half have passed tests for the European rescue: Kutxabank with honors, the Santander, with distinction; BBVA and Caixabank with remarkably high; Sabadell and Bankinter with a well, and the merger Unicaja- CEISS with a scraping approved. The other half of the suspended. The four nationalized entities (BFA-Bankia, CatalunyaBank, NCG Banco and Banco de Valencia) account for 86% of the 53.745 million of total capital needs. The figure would rise to 59,300 million without taking into account the ongoing mergers and tax credits, but this figure is not relevant because only tax assets have been recorded in the entities that generate results and clearly because the only fusion that seems is at risk with Liberbank Ibercaja and Box 3, in which only needs separately added 100 000 000 rather than as a group.
The figure of 59,300 million seems to have used the government to launch outward message that exercise is solid and they have healthy bodies. But in reality, the government hopes finally not having to ask their partners around 40,000 million euros of the bailout, a figure that does not even reach 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) and well below the downs that other countries have made in their financial systems.
The Government hopes that the European bailout figure is 40,000 million
A figure of 40,000 million would have been perfectly fundable by the Spanish Treasury few months ago, before the crisis was resolved Bankia "in the worst possible way", said the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, and distrust in Spain from taking over investors, which has caused a capital outflow historical record a risk premium, the biggest drop of all world markets and a lowering of credit ratings by rating agencies has left the majority of financial institutions (and the Spanish state itself) in the junk bond level or edge.
The figure also had been less-or deferred-time if it had gone ahead with the auction of CatalunyaBank, Banco de Valencia and, later, of NCG Banco, entities that need, according to the evidence, something more than 21,000 million and for which there was interest (even counting on asset protection schemes funded from future contributions of the Deposit Guarantee Fund) by the major banks, which have shown their strength in tests before financial reforms Guindos dissuade any potential purchase.
The most common comment among executives is that if it came to banks in other European countries in a macroeconomic scenario as severe as that used by Oliver Wyman, many of them fall. "It is unfair that this test only applies to Spanish banks and the German banks, French, Dutch, Austrian, and so on. With good reclassification and valuation of toxic assets they have, many of these banks also need lots of capital, "said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney. "But, you know, the big countries do not break the rules, simply change" says wryly.
4% of GDP was easily financed by the Treasury a few months ago
Spain's problem is that to clean up its financial system, so contaminated by the housing bubble, has had to borrow money. UK, Holland or Germany, refloated their damaged bodies and bad banks created its own budget. When you borrow money, you get the conditions and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Brussels are very severe. The banking crisis (and economic) in Spain is open for more than three and half years and Europe does not want more extensions because what is at stake, at bottom, is the euro. In addition, the European Commission wants to prevent banks follow paralyzed, without giving credit to businesses and families fearing international investors that the balances are rotten brick. Tornabell, Professor of Banking and Finance at ESADE, recalls the appointment of José Viñals, director of the IMF's Capital Markets, saying: "In Europe there are too many bodies in the cupboards of banks." Viñals should know well what it was Spanish corpses deputy governor between 2006 and 2009.
"Oliver tests are a way to cut their losses. Probably, they disappear after half of the financial system. It is unfair because the entities were not bad over 30% at the beginning of the crisis, but the requirements of provisions of the Government have been more than reasonable, "laments an executive of a company with capital deficit.
To that argument, the response of the Ministry of Economy has been that, at this stage of the crisis, after so much inaccurate or unrealistic, markets only accept drastic measures. "I doubt that confidence in the system to recover in the short term. The entities have a reputation problem is not resolved in the overnight. Successive be needed and good quarterly results. The government expects a miracle and international investors do not believe in miracles, "said Jordi Palafox, Professor of Economic Analysis at the University of Valencia, and former member of the board of Bancaja, which he resigned in 2006.
Raise money in the market is very difficult without huge discounts
Alfonso García Mora, partner International Financial Analyst (AFI), believes that "the key will be in getting reactivate the growth rate of the economy and involving an ultimate ground in the impairment of assets." If forecasts are met by the Government, in 2013 the GDP will fall by 0.5% and the analyzes agree that the Spanish economy needs to reduce the volume of credit after years of great excess.
The most critical in public with these tests has been the president of Banco Popular, Angel Ron. He believes that "weaken" the entities and add "more confusion", so hardly help improve short-term credibility of Spain. Ron did not hide his "skepticism" about the consequences of these stress tests of banks, which have fixed capital needs of each group. "I do not know if it is the best medicine," said Ron. "It's like taking a medicine before having aggressive disease." Some analysts saw Ron overreaction by evil place that has been his body, with a capital needs of 3,223 million in the adverse scenario. Anyway, the Popular insists that public capital need not meet the requirements.
Jordi Palafox says bluntly: "The claim Ron forgets what has led us to this situation: parsimony lethal address problems by entities and serious errors in diagnosis and management by both the Ministry of Economy (the former government and thereof) and the Bank of Spain. "
The next major step is the launch of the bad bank
The People should capture private money or sell shares to meet the requirements. The market remains closed, except for large entities, which are precisely those that do not need to raise their own resources. "It will be difficult to succeed. Depend on the amount, but it is becoming more difficult, "said Jose Carlos Diez.
From AFI, Alfonso García Mora hopes to find buyers entities. "In the short term will be difficult, but it is true that the deadline-until June, is large enough so that if the European context improves, could ever have a window of opportunity. Keep in mind that banks now trading with very attractive rates, so if you see clearly in the medium term, it could be an interesting time for investors. "
One analyst, who has frequent contact with international investors, and asked to remain anonymous, said that there will only be placed "at a very high discount Sabadell as did a few months ago. You should avoid placing convertible bonds in the retail market for obvious reasons, after all that has happened. "
But Oliver Wyman tests are not the last step. The amount of capital will be lessened by removing the entities applying the preference shares and to attract private capital markets. The last step, scheduled for December, will be the creation of bad bank, which shall transfer real estate assets. Just subtract the capital needs of real estate assets that are provisioned or above book value that the government sets. Bank is scheduled to liquidate all assets in 15 years.
Is it a solution to the financial sector? What consequences may have on the property market? "After the bad bank credit will not grow because private debt levels are still high. The asset prices continue to fall, as happened in the UK and Ireland, "said the expert. He concludes: "A management company does not warrant that many entities selling toxic assets to a bad bank to become viable."
Tornabell, who has carefully studied the Swedish banking crisis, advised to follow the steps of that country. "The Swedish government placed property sellers, not bankers. In eight years invested capital recovered and taxpayers suffered no losses. " For Spain is not so optimistic. "Never mind that the Spanish property company lose money. The important thing is that we have strong balance sheets so they can resume lending. " This is the ultimate goal of all. The greatest challenge since the crisis began in 2009.
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