欧州首脳会議の5つの課題
CUMBRE EUROPEA
Cinco claves para la cumbre (el rescate a España y cuatro más)
Son cinco claves las de esta cumbre; incluso más. Pero son, básicamente, el rescate a España
España es la piedra filosofal de casi todo en estos momentos, la última frontera del euro
Claudi Pérez / Juan Gómez Bruselas / Berlín 17 OCT 2012 - 21:37 C
EUROPEAN SUMMIT
Five keys to the summit (the rescue of Spain and four more)
They are the five keys of this summit, even more. But they are basically the bailout Spain
Spain is the corner stone of almost everything right now, the last frontier of the euro
Claudi Perez / Juan Gomez Brussels / Berlin 17 OCT 2012 - 21:37 C
The EU, with its army of 15,000 Eurocrats and lobbyists who swarm around institutions, left definitely be boring on May 9, 2010 and then became the target of that Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times" . That day (and the night) started the first of 25 summit to save the eurozone crisis began as a stone in the shoe-Greece, 2.5% of euro area GDP, and was amplified to to engulf Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which have already been rescued and endangering the very eurozone. The episode XXVI of that stream of summits in the race to save the euro comes amid an oasis (or a mirage, we'll see): the markets are calm, for once seem to not want more trouble, and at the meeting of heads of State and Government imposes an impasse, a look away waiting for you in the coming weeks to clarify the immediate future of Greece and the second bailout of Spain, the two big elephants in the room, everyone see but which nobody wants to talk.
moreMerkel, against allFrance leads the European battle for growthItaly is trying to distance himself from the plight of SpainPORTUGAL. The good student in troubleGREECE. The end of work of the troika will continue in the euro facilitatesIRELAND: Dublin wishes to reaffirm June agreementsA new weapon to face the crisis?, By G. B. WOLFFAt this summit, size matters, by X. VIDAL FOLCHCheck the special EUROPE III. A reflection on the image of the EU in the world
The following is a summary of what is at stake, although many of these chapters will be discussed only behind closed doors to try not to break the spell and prolong these moments of tranquility: to treat that does not become oasis mirage. There may be five keys of this summit, even more. But are basically rescue Spain and four more. Spain is the corner stone of almost everything right now, the last frontier of the euro. French President François Hollande, said on Wednesday that "it's time to offer more than just Spanish austerity". Berlin sees it differently: "Spain must decide for itself whether or not you want the rescue. But the rescue is impossible without conditions ", according to diplomatic sources.
1. SPAIN: WAITING RAJOY
The second bailout of Spain is ready. One is that President Mariano Rajoy El Paso. Analysts believe that the request will occur in late October or in early November. There is no confirmation on that calendar and officially Spain remains a sea of doubt. But Germany on Tuesday gave clear signs that will not oppose a bailout. Suspiciously, it did just hours before Moody's decision on the creditworthiness of the Kingdom of Spain: Moody's has kept the note above junk status with the only condition that ended up getting help. The tranquility of the markets, with the risk premium below 400 points for the first time since April, also based on the belief that the end Madrid asked the money. If at any time investors decide that it ceases to be the most likely, the hurricane is assured.
But today nobody believes in that hypothesis. Even the type of aid is more or less agreed: a precautionary credit line from the permanent bailout mechanism, with new conditions agreed in a memorandum of understanding. Spain wants the bailout mechanism not get to shoot in the markets: ECB who will be put to buy bonds in the secondary market to avoid the stigma. But that is not clear. Actually, that's just one of the questions that hover over the future of Spain bailout. For example, the size of the aid is to be seen: the Spanish government wants the ECB is committed to lowering the risk premium to 200 basis points, which is unlikely (in Frankfurt is spoken rather than 300 points for Spain not lower guard with reforms and others).
Officially, no one will speak of Spain at the summit, EU sources said, unofficially it is clear that actually points in the opposite direction. The government maintains that the rescue is not mature. Rajoy's doubts are understandable: associated conditions can be lax at first (Spain has already done much in the way of cuts, reforms and all that penance for past sins), but Madrid has to make sure that if it fails deficit targets-more than likely-the troika will not impose draconian future adjustments. Common sense says that would mean a depression below the Pyrenees, with riots and social risks, as in Europe, serious problems in the euro unit. Therefore the EU may end up giving Spain, again, some room with the deficit targets, and even some kind of award for that at least part of the money used to help banks fall under the umbrella of bailout funds. Although it is still very green.
2. GREECE OR The Rape of Europa
Greece is starting and destination station of the European crisis. But things start to become clear: the solution will not come on this board, but a Eurogroup later this month or early November. The partners themselves will make a statement of support for Greece, which has just announced an agreement with the troika to apply new settings. In return, the EU will give a couple of years to adjust to Athens deficit and prevent the Greek economy, which has spent five years in recession and this year will shrink by about 6% more, follow path breaking. Also under discussion is a restructuring of the public debt of Greece, with the realization that the debt (160% of GDP, twice as Spain) is a slab this prevents the country, despite all their efforts. The visit of Chancellor Angela Merkel to Athens for a few days is the most reliable indicator that things are more than on track.
The Greek situation indirectly affects Spain: Germany wants the vote in the Bundestag for the Spanish rescue and for changing conditions in Greece (which should not be excluded that the partners give more money to Athens) go in the same package. I now repeat any politician that has a microphone in front of Brussels, Berlin, Paris or wherever it is that Greece will remain in the eurozone, after the more ominous-Citi analysts give him a chance-output 90% euro. As in the case of Spain, the eurozone looks increasingly convinced that he has to find an answer to the problem solvent Greek "not solidarity but because leaders have become aware that the danger is not Greece or Spain, but the euro, "diplomatic sources explained.
3. UNION BANK (but when)
Perhaps the most important aspect of the summit, at least of the issues that can speak at a press conference. In June, the leaders approved a timetable for the union and banking direct recapitalization of banks, which could serve to the Spanish and Irish in order to break the vicious circle between financial problems and sovereign debt crisis. Germany has pursued with zeal that Europe accepts denature the June agreement with a language strategy, much like Brussels. It is scrupulously respect the text, but to give you a very different interpretation of what it was: change the music. The Commission and the Eurogroup summer clearly explained in the single European supervision (by the ECB) would start in January next year and thereafter could recapitalize banks directly, even retroactively.
Germany argues that the ECB effectively monitoring start on January 1, but only for banks that have already received injections: supervision is not effective, as recognized by the ECB itself, until the end of 2014, and to date no injections banks direct from the rescue mechanism. Additionally, Berlin and its allies refuse to toxic assets that countries like Spain and Ireland have been placed in their bad banks spend sometime to come under the umbrella of the European rescue mechanism, as it followed the June agreement.
The summit discussed at Thursday's dinner (often extended into the early hours) the new steps to be taken, with Paris, Rome and Madrid Berlin trying to impose their conditions not so sharp. But that battle seems lost. The Spanish government, aware that Germany sends in this, says the direct recapitalization of banks with retrospective effect is no longer a priority. But it may be trouble on the board for the South to try to get some compensation.
The council will pass the buck to the Ministers of Economy and Finance, with the excuse that these are technical issues that can not discuss Merkel, Hollande, Monti, Rajoy and company. But the union bank is the core of the issue. It, along with the ECB's bazooka, the safety device that should equip Europe to solve the euro design errors. In the June summit, with pressure from the markets, European leaders took a leap forward in that regard. Now, with less pressure, the sense of urgency is gone, and barely hints at the possibility of closing the joint bank with the clasp of a deposit guarantee fund and a common bank resolution fund, which eventually would be a mutualise as problems. Big words: with Germany in an election year, these debates are very, very thorny.
4. THE LONG TERM (all dead)
Europe has several pressing problems, very short term, but also is discussing what he wants to be more ("all dead in the long term," said Keynes). Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, recently presented an ambitious proposal that leaders discussed at the summit, which roughly is to create a budget that allows for the eurozone out fires when things get bad, involves creation of the embryo of a European Treasury, and intended to require Member States to commit contracts to implement reforms, to the finding of the complete failure of the economic policy recommendations arising from the Stability Plan.
Again, Germany has its own proposal. German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble Christian Democrat (CDU), insists on proposing drastic progress towards integration of European partners. "We must take major steps on the road to a fiscal union." Schäuble wants the Commissioner of the European Union Economic get a sort of veto power to regulate the budgets of the states of the Union. If national budgets do not meet the rules of stability, the veto that could force supercomisario national parliaments to correct these differences. The position now occupied by Finland's Olli Rehn would thus become one of the most powerful in Europe. To prevent this power undermines the democratic legitimacy that budgets get that Parliament approves, Schäuble proposed that this oversight by the Commissioner to be shared by MEPs. The same idea had already caused tensions between Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and the then French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who rejected it for years. Judging by the reactions Europe on Tuesday, still just as reluctant enthusiasm.
5. Berlin, Paris and Casablanca
Tensions in this regard are a snapshot of the differences between European partners. Germany, the country that puts more money, want to discuss fiscal union and joint monitoring of the public accounts of the partners. Instead, its members most affected by the crisis, led by France, want to discuss the possibility of issuing joint debt (so-called Eurobonds), but above all promote the establishment of a common organization of banking supervision. In almost all the major issues there are differences between Berlin and Paris. France wants an immediate bailout for Spain, Germany prefers to wait. France wants to respect the words and music of the agreement on the June bank union, Germany has made its interpretation prevail. And so on ad infinitum.
While Hollande's arrival has brought some rebalancing in European power relations, the euro is a kind of economic competition in which Germany has clearly emerged victorious. We won the battle monetary: the model is Bondesbank which won the ECB. Now he wants to win the other with a leadership that is still fuzzy, that arouses great sympathy but currently there is great opposition. An example: Berlin hopes the European Parliament differentiate between euro countries and those outside. Want some decisions are banned to countries that are not part of the monetary union. This would raise a barrier between continental Europe and the UK.
While London is increasingly reluctant to participate in decisions and give common European powers to Brussels, Schäuble and Merkel insist route of "more Europe" to exit the debt crisis. A Schäuble likes to joke that "Britain could be in the euro sooner than they think," but the rampant skepticism in the UK and the urgency with which these measures will deepen further propose the Channel. The President of the European Parliament, the Social Democrat Martin Schulz, said new rules introduce favorable as those proposed Schäuble. The main problem facing Germany is temporary. The reform of the European treaties require lengthy negotiations which tend to five years.
In short, the euro crisis is a choice destination in Germany. But Berlin, as in this scene from Casablanca ("dinner tonight?" Asks Ingrid Bergman's character, "I never make plans that far ahead," he replies Bogart), is reluctant to decide, especially when in pre-election period . Germany faces a difficult trilemma: to solve the crisis have to accept, at least temporarily, a mutualisation of debt (Eurobonds, for example, or the deposit insurance fund community, which would force the German taxpayer to make an effort); monetization (that is who pays the ECB printing euros, or transferring the risk of peripheral countries the central bank balance sheet) or leave things as they are and continue with the painful adjustment in the South.
In the June summit, with the maximum tension in the markets seemed to opt for a combination of pooling and monetization. But then he backtracked, and in today's summit looks set to leave things as they are, with minimal changes beyond letting the ECB enters the scene. Whenever Spain-Spain-is always portrayed and ask the rescue, of course.
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