スペインの銀行救済計画は頓挫? 国債購入の申請を早くしないと国債金利が再びこうしょうする!!?
cumbre europea
El rescate a España planea sobre la UE
Alemania insiste en retrasar la ayuda, redobla la presión para estrechar el control sobre la disciplina fiscal e impone una desnaturalización de la unión bancaria
La Unión Europea deja la recapitalización directa de los bancos para 2014
Claudi Pérez Bruselas 19 OCT 2012 - 04:34 CET
European summit
The rescue plan on the EU Spain
Germany insists on delaying aid, redoubled the pressure to tighten control on fiscal discipline and imposes a distortion of union bank
The European Union makes direct recapitalization of banks by 2014
Claudi Perez Brussels 19 OCT 2012 - 04:34 CET
The advances in high European policy circles. The second Spanish flew rescue the summit of heads of state and government in Brussels from start to finish, from the initial statements on the red carpet in hallway conversations. Was not officially on the agenda, and the media blackout was general spoke of union bank, by the now defunct European pact for growth, the ambitious project to heal the cracks in the Union's institutional building long-term, but not Spain. At least publicly.
Rajoy threw balls out. "Rescue, no nothing. Nobody spoke rescue or asked me. Not pay much attention to what they see posted by. Till I will not communicate anything at all," he said at the end of the summit. It is recalled that the Government denied that he was seeking the bailout the same morning that asked.
Angela Merkel arrives at the summit of heads of state and government. / JULIEN WARNAND (EFE)
And yet, the rescue is there, just around the corner, according to several sources, almost completely agreed and only at the expense of the electoral calendar in some countries (the regional Galician and Basque, of course, but also some local elections Finland on October 28, and the German pre-election cycle). Everything is ready for when President Mariano Rajoy considers that the application is mature enough so there is no last minute surprises. Rajoy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, and company treated the matter in the vicinity of the meeting and tried to make as little noise as possible to prolong the relative calm in the markets and wait for the last fringes clarification , according to sources. But Spain is reluctant to take the step because Berlin remains the great fear of Rajoy.
The German government wants to reserve one last trick with regard to the conditions, according to a recent review on the state of the Spanish economy and the depth of the reforms and adjustments committed to tighten nuts or lease and give more laxity, as claimed by Madrid. The European Commission, the Council and all the leaders explained that this step alone can give Spain, and specifically Berlin sources clung to the official discourse in recent weeks: "Spain is to decide whether or not to ask for help. Yet the Given recent events, it is difficult to argue that you can stay out of the markets. " Germany, with this argument, is delaying the rescue. France wants to immediately: Hollande accused Merkel of acting "by electoral interests" in major European debates, they are now focused precisely in Spain and in union bank, which also affects directly to Spanish interests.
Berlin wants to reserve one last trick on conditions
The single banking supervisor and direct recapitalization of European banks was another workhorse of the summit, which at press time was far from over, but they did not expect nor breakthrough or irreconcilable differences: the method of EU government is based on agreements to save face everyone. The parentheses in the markets is too important to clarify both the Spanish rescue horizon as the other big elephant in the room: the solution to the Greek crisis. Amid protests in the streets of Athens for the agreement between the Greek Government and the Troika-adjustments amounting to 11,500 million more to release a new tranche of aid worth 31,000 million-EU partners had words encouragement to Greece. But European sources explained to this newspaper that once ruled Greece leaving the euro, the solution will be delayed until next Eurogroup: two years to meet the deficit targets (to prevent further austerity strangle an economy recession takes five years) and a boost to keep the slab Greek debt (160% of GDP, twice as Spain) crush any chance of ending the crisis.
Paradoxically, neither Greece was on the official agenda of the summit, as did Spain. From what was said was yes bank union and greater control of national budgets: in both cases France and Germany showed their differences, though Merkel and Hollande, who had a bilateral meeting proceeded in a common position. Paris and Berlin agreed to complete the legal work for the end of the year and start the single supervisor "in the course of 2013," according to European sources.
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That's not the quick decision that France wanted: Finally, as expected, the arguments are imposed in Germany, which takes a few weeks to slow pressing schedule. The only concession is that Merkel, after all, only one supervisor will (and will be the ECB) next year: at some point he doubted that was possible. But that will most likely delay the direct recapitalization of banks well into 2014, as advanced in Tokyo a few days ago ECB President Mario Draghi.
Too late for Spain. Moreover, there is not even schedule for deposit guarantee fund for common bank resolution mechanism, the two most ambitious of union bank. The Eurogroup will discuss shortly who finally eats the toxic assets that have placed some countries bad banks. European sources explained that the first losses correspond to each country, but there is a possibility that part of the amount falls under the umbrella of the European rescue mechanism. That would relieve pressure on the banking hole public debt: allow undo, at least minimally, the vicious circle of financial problems and sovereign debt such as Spanish cases.
Otherwise, the usual: Germany continues to insist that the EU issue is fiscal indiscipline and Brussels was a proposal to create the figure of a European supercomisario have veto power over national budgets. Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, came with an ambitious plan is to create a eurozone budget capacity to act in times of crisis, while compel countries to sign a contract that commits them when implement reforms. Merkel welcomed "the progress made by the EU on fiscal discipline," but said that members should go a step further, "give Europe true powers of intervention on national public finances."
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